The local elections have certainly produced some interesting results. A poor media cycle from the Hartlepool by-election and the loss of Labour councillors nationwide has led to panic within Labour and a low-key reshuffle by Keir Starmer on Sunday night. Questions are being raised about the current direction of leadership, and whether Starmer is the right person for the job.
This article won’t answer those, mostly because they can’t really be answered given the unique circumstances of these elections.
However, the results from Yorkshire do present a milestone of the political trends in the region, which give us some answers as to its future direction.
I’ve detailed the full results at the end of this article, but the headline figure for the number of councillors is:
Labour: 272 (-35)
Conservative: 78 (+39)
Liberal Democrat: 35 (+8)
Green: 10 (+6)
Independents: 14 (-5)
UKIP: 0 (-12)
Well-advertised local leadership matters
A continuing thread within England is that the country’s metro mayors have had an impact on the results. Conservative gains have fallen largely in the West Midlands and North East, where mayors Andy Street and Ben Houchen have been pushed as high-profile successes. Similarly, Labour has held steadiest in the North West, where Andy Burnham and Steve Rotheram have presented strong local leadership.
The results from Yorkshire also show how this has had an impact. A borough like Doncaster might, given Labour’s national performance, have seen more Conservative gains. With an older and whiter population than comparable boroughs, in 2017 the UKIP + Conservatives’ vote share was greater than that of Labour. Throw into the mix the fact that both the Greens and the Yorkshire Party made a major play for the council, and some significant losses might have been expected.
However, the Labour vote held steady in the city, albeit with some small Conservative gains. Doncaster’s mayor, Ros Jones, is broadly popular, having come runner up in the 2018 World Mayor prize and receiving a CBE in 2017. She became prominent in the pandemic for being among the first to offer free school meals when pressure came on the Westminster government to do the same.
In comparison, the Labour council in Sheffield became synonymous with a tree-felling scandal that received a high degree of public scrutiny from the local Greens. As a result, 2021 was Labour’s worst-year in the city since the boundary changes of 2016. The party lost three seats to the Lib Dems and five to the Greens, including that of their council leader, Bob Johnson, and with it control of the council.
However, the failure of Humberside Police and Crime Commissioner Keith Hunter to get re-elected shows the limits of the personal vote. While Hunter has undeniably done a great job, and the Conservative campaign was disorganised, broader voting trends towards the Conservatives in Humberside and North East Lincolnshire were enough to swing this race.
This shows that, contrary to popular belief, local elections aren’t decided on national swing alone. If opposition parties want to increase their success at a local level, they need to prove to residents that they are delivering change for the local area. The presence of high-profile figures like Mayor Ros are vital in this effort.
The Conservatives now have a monopoly on the right
This was the first truly post-UKIP/Brexit party set of local elections, and it is clear that their voters are going in one direction. Most of the Conservatives’ gains in Yorkshire were on the back of the collapse of the UKIP vote, picking up both former UKIP wards, or ones where the UKIP/Conservative vote was previously split.
Rotherham is a key example of this. In 2016, when the council was last elected, UKIP won 14 of the council’s 63 seats. While the formerly UKIP, now Rotherham Democratic, councillors did win a few wards, the overwhelming proportion of their votes went to the Conservatives.
The story of splits on the left also continued. In wards such as Anston & Woodsetts, the Labour and Liberal Democrat vote combined was greater than that of the Conservatives, but splits meant that three Conservatives were elected from the ward.
Pundits have already pointed to Yorkshire seats such as Doncaster North and Normanton, Castleford and Pontefract, Ed Miliband’s and Yvette Cooper’s seats, as places where, like in Hartlepool, the Brexit party plus Conservative vote was greater than the Labour majority.
If something isn’t done to either find more progressive voters, or to reduce competition among opposition parties at the constituency level, Conservative advances at the constituency level may continue in 2024.
The Liberal Democrats and Greens are in a (relatively) healthy shape
Leading into the local elections, speculation was rife that the circumstances of a pandemic and a less toxic Labour leader would disadvantage the Greens and Liberal Democrats, which had both made gains at Labour’s expense in Yorkshire during the Corbyn years.
But 2021 showed this to not be the case. The main victory of both parties came in their aforementioned success in Sheffield. Similarly, the Lib Dems also made decent gains in Rotherham and Hull, where they had a strong presence.
The Greens also did very well in the West Yorkshire mayoral race, finishing fourth with 9 percent of the vote, along with picking up councillors in a few districts.
There is no sign, however, that, outside of liberal university cities like Sheffield, either party is able to challenge Labour in the long run. Major plays by the Greens in both Hull and Doncaster seem to have been unsuccessful in this electoral cycle, and the Liberal Democrats may well be disappointed by their performance in the West Yorkshire council elections.
The appetite for Yorkshire devolution is real
The biggest surprise of the weekend was when the West Yorkshire mayoral election was counted. Although the overall competition predictably went to Labour’s Tracy Brabin, surprises came in the unusually high turnout figure of 35 percent, and the appearance of Bob Buxton of the Yorkshire Party in 3rd place.
Although the Yorkshire Party may have not won any councillors at the district level this year, their strength in this mayoral race shows not just a strong campaign on the ground, but a sincere desire in the region to have a greater say in its decision-making.
With devolution deals for North Yorkshire and for the East Riding in the works, Yorkshire may have four mayors governing it by 2024. Whether this can result in region-wide governance is up for grabs.
The results in full:
North Yorkshire
Police, fire and crime commissioner (1st preferences):
Conservative: 47% (+7%)
Labour: 26% (+0%)
Independent: 14% (New)
Liberal Democrat: 12% (+1%)
Police, fire and crime commissioner (2nd preferences):
Conservative: 61% (+2%)
Labour: 39% (-2%)
Humberside
Police and crime commissioner (1st preferences)
Conservative: 46% (+19%)
Labour: 39% (-1%)
Liberal Democrats: 15% (no change)
No UKIP (18%) as previously
Police and crime commissioner (2nd preferences)
Conservative: 53% (+12%)
Labour: 47% (-12%)
Hull City Council (Labour hold):
Elected in 2021 (one third of councillors):
Liberal Democrats: 10 (+2)
Labour: 9 (-1)
Conservatives: 0 (-1)
New composition of the council post-election:
Labour: 30
Liberal Democrat: 26
Conservative: 1
South Yorkshire
Barnsley (Labour hold):
Elected in 2021 (one third of councillors):
Labour: 17 (-1)
Liberal Democrats: 3 (+3)
Conservative: 1 (+0)
Barnsley Independent: 0 (-2)
Doncaster (Labour hold):
Mayoral election: 1st preferences:
Labour: 43% (-8%)
Conservative: 28% (+7%)
Independent: 8% (New)
Yorkshire Party: 6% (+1%)
Independent: 6% (New)
Green: 5% (New)
Reform UK: 2% (New)
No UKIP (12%) or TUSC (2%) as previously
Mayoral election: 2nd preferences:
Labour: 60%
Conservative: 40%
Doncaster Council (Labour hold):
Elected in 2021 (whole council):
Labour: 40 (-3)
Conservative: 11 (+4)
Mexborough Independent: 3 (no change)
Edlington and Warmsworth First: 1 (+1)
Independent: 0 (-2)
Rotherham Council (Labour hold):
Elected in 2021 (whole council):
Labour: 32 (-12)
Conservative: 20 (+20)
Rotherham Democrat: 3 (-11)
Liberal Democrat: 3 (+3)
Independent: 1 (+1)
(NB due to boundary changes the council also lost four seats, hence the funny numbers)
Sheffield Council (Labour lose to No overall control):
Elected in 2021 (one third of councillors):
Labour: 13 (-8)
Liberal Democrat: 9 (+3)
Green: 6 (+5)
Conservative: 1 (+1)
UKIP: 0 (-1)
New composition of the council post-election:
Labour: 41
Liberal Democrats: 29
Greens: 13
Conservatives: 1
West Yorkshire
West Yorkshire Mayor: 1st preferences:
Labour: 43%
Conservative: 29%
Yorkshire Party: 10%
Green: 9%
Liberal Democrat: 5%
Reform UK: 3%
English Democrats: 2%
West Yorkshire Mayor: 2nd preferences
Labour: 60%
Conservative: 40%
Bradford (Labour hold):
Elected in 2021 (one third of councillors):
Labour: 15 (-1)
Conservative: 11 (+4)
Liberal Democrat: 3 (-1)
Independent: 2 (-3)
Green: 2 (+1)
New composition of the council post-election:
Labour: 51
Conservative: 25
Liberal Democrat: 7
Independent: 4
Green: 3
Calderdale:
Elected in 2021 (one third of councillors):
Conservative: 9 (+2)
Labour: 8 (no change)
Liberal Democrat: 2 (-2)
New composition of the council post-election:
Labour: 28
Conservative: 16
Liberal Democrat: 5
Independent: 2
Kirklees (No overall control):
Elected in 2021 (one third of councillors):
Labour: 9 (-1)
Conservative: 9 (+2)
Liberal Democrat: 2 (-1)
Independent: 1 (no change)
Green: 1 (no change)
New composition of the council post-election:
Labour: 33
Conservative: 19
Liberal Democrat: 9
Independent: 5
Green: 3
Leeds (Labour hold):
Elected in 2021 (one third of councillors):
Labour: 19 (-2)
Conservative: 9 (+1)
Independent: 3 (+1)
Liberal Democrat: 2 (no change)
Green: 1 (no change)
New composition of the council post-election:
Labour: 54
Conservative: 24
Independent: 10
Liberal Democrat: 8
Greens: 3
Wakefield (Labour hold):
Elected in 2021 (one third of councillors):
Labour: 13 (-6)
Conservative: 8 (+6)
Liberal Democrat: 1 (+1)
Independent: 0 (-1)
New composition of the council post-election:
Labour: 43
Conservative: 17
Liberal Democrat: 2
Independent: 1
