The latest polling shows that Reform UK Party Ltd is now one point ahead of Labour (at 25% and 24% respectively). The Conservatives are in a close third place with 21%, with the Lib Dems 14% and the Greens 9%. Despite this news, there are positive actions that the left could take to ensure that they expose Reform’s lesser-known policies.
Reform is surging forward
The poll results on 4 February should be no surprise. In the general election of July 2024 Reform UK took five parliamentary seats, but with 14.3% of the national vote share; that was with only 609 candidates (against other parties’ 629 candidates). Given that since the general election the new Labour government has made some unpopular choices, it was always likely that Labour’s support would diminish and Reform’s increase.
On Thursday 1 May there will be ‘all out’ elections in Doncaster in South Yorkshire, and also the inaugural election for the Greater Lincolnshire mayor. In the Brexit referendum of June 2016, Doncaster voted to leave the European Union with 69% in favour of departure. This largely mirrors the rest of South Yorkshire (Barnsley 68% leave, Rotherham 68%, Sheffield 51%) and the Yorkshire and Humber region as a whole, with only Leeds and York voting to remain.
The risk in Doncaster and Lincolnshire
A high pro-Brexit vote is a sign of low-hanging fruit for Reform UK. In such areas they are more likely to find voters who are sceptical about the value of the EU in particular and about international cooperation in general. It is there where they are more likely to find large numbers of people hostile to, or worried about, immigration. But there is more to a ‘typical’ Reform voter than thinly veiled, racist xenophobia.
It is little wonder, given the data above, that Reform UK is targeting the Doncaster elections and the Greater Lincolnshire mayoralty. (Some Lincolnshire towns such as Boston had the highest pro-Leave percentages in the country e.g. 75% in Boston.)
Reform UK is confident about its chances in both Doncaster and Greater Lincolnshire. Nigel Farage said in September 2024 “We’re looking ahead to 2026-27 when there are big sets of elections right across the county [Yorkshire]. The one we’re going to focus on [now] will be Doncaster next year when the whole of that district is up.”
What should left-wing campaigners do in Doncaster – and elsewhere?
There are a number of campaigning tactics and messages that the progressive left could employ in Doncaster and elsewhere in the country.
For a start, campaigners from the progressive left should emphasise the local nature of their candidates. One of the characteristics of successful candidates in recent elections, certainly in Leeds, is that they are based very locally in the areas they represent. Some have been community activists for a long time. This allows them to better understand the issues of the area, and voice them in the language of the area. It also means they can be portrayed be portrayed as authentically representative of the area. This is probably more important in local elections than it would be in parliamentary elections.
It probably doesn’t matter if the candidate lives just outside the ward or hasn’t lived there for a few years – as long as they demonstrably know and understand the area. The ideal candidate, all other things being equal, is someone who is recognised in local shops and facilities. This will often be in contrast with the Reform candidate.
It’s also important to stress candidates’ commitment to public services and equality. Reform has not got a good story to tell here. The progressive left backs public services such as the NHS because it’s morally the right thing to do. It does not intend to allow big US companies to own, control, use and asset-strip the NHS as a money-making opportunity. And it’s worth mentioning the influence of Elon Musk and the track record of US companies ‘investing’ in English football clubs.
Reform UK: undermining public services
Reform is backed and financed by the mega rich, and this is exposed in its antipathy to public services. The company (for Reform UK is in fact a company, not a political party in the traditional sense) says that it’s committed to the NHS and public services. However, in its manifesto for the July 2024 general election it said it would reduce government spending by £50bn per year, without explaining where those cuts would be made – apart from a £6bn saving by halving the foreign aid budget – while spending far more on defence and policing.
It would also move towards a ‘French system’ of health care by which ‘some’ people would need private health insurance. Reform UK is financed by its members but also by donations by some very rich Britons, and possibly by some very rich foreign people like Elon Musk. It is unlikely that Reform would favour a progressive tax policy in which the rich pay more. In an era when millionaires and billionaires proliferate, the progressive left can put forward the idea of a redistribution of income to support a healthier society.
Perhaps we could learn something from football teams. Manchester United fans are so incensed by the Glazer family, whom they feel have asset stripped the Club and saddled it with unsustainable debt, that they have a sticker ‘Love United, Hate the Glazers’. A political sticker ‘Love NHS, Hate Reform UK’ might be a good idea.
Reform has already made everybody poorer through Brexit
According to Bloomberg, Brexit is costing the UK £100bn per year. This £100bn would obviously not all have been available to the UK government to spend, but probably £30bn to £40bn would have been. Farage and UKIP, the forerunner to Reform UK, are largely responsible for this. Do we really want to be impoverished again, with large sections of the NHS sold to US ‘investors’ for their profit?
The nature of the Reform UK voter in the North
The so-called ‘Red Wall’ of northern constituencies, which was breached by Boris Johnson in the 2019 general election, was largely based on those areas that had voted heavily for Brexit in 2016. These areas are largely, but not entirely, found in the post-industrial coalfields, steel towns and shipyard districts or the forgotten towns of the East and West coasts.
The ‘typical’ Reform voters in this area were Labour voters partly through heritage and habit. They were indignant about the way that public services seemed to be diminishing – largely because of the Coalition’s austerity measures but often blamed on immigrants. This seemed unfair and unjust to these Labour voters. Politics is an emotional business and the sense of injustice is one of the more powerful emotions.
If and when the potential Reform voter realises that Reform UK is not interested in public services, equality or a fair taxation system then their vote is likely to migrate elsewhere.
