The next government should put an end to the cruelty of the asylum process and let communities do what they do best – welcoming people. Reconstructing those fleeing persecution in their homeland as criminals, rapists and terrorists has been a deliberate Conservative Party strategy because fear-inducing policies are vote winners. Perceived threats push us towards protection and security, and the government’s failure to meet the challenge of its own creation is leading to its electoral downfall. Reform UK is capitalising on this failure while stoking further fear for electoral advantage.
Refugee flows: the global context
Over the course of this parliament, the number of displaced people worldwide rose 55% from 70.8 million in 2019 to 110 million in 2023 (and a further 1.7 million Palestinians have fled their homes since October 2023).
However, 83% of refugees are hosted in low or middle-income countries – only a tiny minority travel further than a neighbouring country in search of a better life. Germany is the only European country that features as a major receiver. Some countries both generate and receive refugees.
Refugee flows: Europe
Asylum applications are a proxy indicator for the perceived safety of a country. Some 75% of refugees arriving in Europe place their trust in in Germany, Spain, France, and Italy. The UK ranks 19 on this index.
The EU has become increasingly hostile towards refugees. Walls and fences have been built all along the EU’s land border and the EU’s own border force (Frontex) tries to prevent migrants crossing the Mediterranean, sending them back to Libya or Türkiye who are paid to receive them. Despite these measures, the numbers crossing the Mediterranean continue to rise; up by 20% last year.
Refugee flows: UK
The UK receives just 1.8% of Europe’s 24.9 million – 0.4% of the world’s 110 million – refugees and displaced people. It is not a destination country for the world’s displaced people or even for those arriving in Europe. Very few refugees want to come to the UK.
Ukraine arrivals dropped from 153,700 in 2022 to 50,520 in 2023 and have subsequently reduced to a trickle, just 40 applications remain to be processed. The government has closed the family members’ scheme. From 2022 to 2023 Hong Kong national arrivals dropped from 205,200 to 37,600 and the flow has almost ceased. Almost all the resettlement and relocation schemes have ended or, in the case of Afghans, paused (but without any commitment to restarting it).
In 2023 there were 67,337 asylum applicants, 81% of whom arrived by small boat. Since the last general election, the number of people granted asylum in the UK has risen from 18,519 in 2019 to 66,336 in 2023.
Arrivals in small boats dropped 31% from their 45,774 (post-coronavirus) peak in the year ending in March 2022 to 31,079 in 2023 but the latest figures (June) suggest that arrivals will be higher this year than they were in 2022 peak. Around 5% are children.
Refugees believe the UK (and other European countries) to be safe, fair, uncorrupted and free, with a police service that will protect rather than brutalise them. Community, kin and family ties and/or an ability to speak English, play a significant role in determining their destination. In some cases, refugees have little choice about where they are headed as agents will determine this for them.
The number of refugees arriving in the UK is almost entirely independent of government action. French disruption and Channel weather can have a day-to-day impact, but they delay rather than stop the flow and do not impact on the numbers overall.
Government response since 2019
To stem the number of Channel crossings, the government passed the Nationality and Borders Act (2022), the Illegal Migration Act (2023), and the Safety of Rwanda Act (2024). Its preferred method, punitive ‘deterrence’ and criminalisation, now includes the forcible deportation of asylum seekers to any country that will have them (Rwanda being the current exemplar) and denial of asylum to anyone who arrives in the UK via unsafe means (small boats). As the UK requires visas from but denies them to people from high refugee-generating countries and has closed safe resettlement routes, ‘unsafe’ (illegal) routes are the only routes open to most asylum seekers.
Policy failure
Government policy is based on the failed theory of punitive deterrence. There is a disconnect between policy makers’ ‘common sense’ view of human behaviour (sticks and carrots) and the thinking behind refugees’ decisions to come to the UK. Home Office commissioned research has been ignored by successive home secretaries who have inclined to punishment as their only solution. A similar Australian scheme was also a failure.
The three successive acts of parliament to try and make legal what the UK courts had previously determined was not, has led to an overly complex asylum system whereby the Home Secretary is compelled, by law, to deport all asylum seekers who have arrived by small boat, while lacking the means to do so. There are already over 70,000 people trapped in this legal vacuum.
Instead of investing in the resources needed to manage a growing problem, the government invested in punitive and ineffective measures, leading to five years of neglect and a broken refugee system. The lack of investment, poor planning and downright illegality has led to refugees being detained in unspeakable and degrading conditions with the government unable or unwilling to protect children in their care from being trafficked into sexual or criminal exploitation – and without having any impact on arrivals.
Community welcome
After a shaky start, the Ukraine scheme has been a success as have the resettlement routes introduced under David Cameron. The schemes worked in partnership with local government, the voluntary sector and communities to provide housing, education, access to public services and help with community integration.
Across the country hundreds of refugee groups and thousands of volunteers are supporting refugees and asylum seekers through the provision of accommodation, material resources, food, language classes, and leisure activities. I wrote a while back about the longevity of many of these groups and volunteers, over 20 years in some cases. While their commitment is huge so too are the benefits, ‘the best thing I’ve ever done’ is a common phrase I hear when talking to people who have engaged with refugees. The experience of volunteers and workers is that most refugees are inspirational and a joy to spend time with.
This week we will be celebrating Refugee Week, an annual festival of friendship, arts, culture, food and all the benefits refugees bring to the UK. Previously, I have written a ‘What’s On’ piece for Yorkshire Bylines but this year there are too many events in Yorkshire for me to take on the task.
My own small, rural and very ‘big and small c’ Conservative, district has a weeklong programme of activities involving all sections of the community, schools and libraries, and across the political divide. Food and fun feature heavily, as do books. But also, these groups hope to raise awareness and reduce misinformation. The picture painted in the press of refugees is not one we have experienced or would recognise.
New government and fresh start?
The government has impaled itself on a ‘stop the boats’ policy over which it has no control. The Reform Party (with no prospect of having to implement it) is hammering the ‘zero asylum’ stakes home. Punitive deterrence does not work and has never worked in any field – health, education, crime or immigration. Its sole purpose is cruelty, and every failure inflates the cruelty. Only if the level of cruelty and illegality – i.e. drowning at sea, lifetime incarceration for arrivals or refoulement (returning to a risk of violence or persecution) – is sufficient to shift the UK’s reputation amongst refugees from a ‘safe’ to an ‘unsafe’ country, will asylum seekers cease to come to the UK. The required level of cruelty to achieve this cognitive and reputational shift should be beyond contemplation for a civilised nation.
And it is so unnecessary. Channel crossings will continue regardless of government policy and asylum applications will have to be managed – humanely and promptly. The next UK government should just get on with it, put an end to the current cruelty and let communities do what they do best – welcoming people.
The data for this piece has been obtained from the Upper Wharfedale Refugee Support Group and Craven District of Sanctuary Fact Sheet (produced annually for Refugee Week).
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