If anyone still thinks that tacking to the left will seal the deal for Labour at the next election, they need to read the ‘Red Shift’ report, published this week by campaigning think tank Labour Together. The report is an attempt to explore what Labour needs to do to win the next general election, starting “by understanding the people we must persuade to vote for us”.
Introducing Stevenage Woman
To secure a win in 2024 the report suggests that Labour must hold firm on social issues, as the voters they need to win over are more conservative on social and cultural issues than most of Labour’s electoral coalition. And much more conservative than most Labour Party activists and members.
This is the first in-depth profiling of Britain’s electorate since Rishi Sunak became prime minister claims Labour Together, and is based on polling conducted by YouGov, with fieldwork conducted 3–8 February 2023 and 22–23 March 2023. The sample is not massive – 5,281 adults in England and Wales – but there is a deeper dive into the current electorate.
Gone are the days of class and occupation determining how you vote. We’ve had Essex Man, Mondeo Man, Worcester Woman and more recently Workington Man. Now Labour Together introduces six new groups of voters who make up Britain’s electorate:
- Activist Left
- Centrist Liberals
- Disillusioned Suburbans
- Patriotic Left
- English Traditionalists
- Rural Right.
And now we have Stevenage Woman. In her early 40s, she’s a mother, in full-time work, but struggling with stagnant wages and rising costs. She lives in suburbs across the country but notably in the Midlands and South and East of England. At the last election she backed the Conservatives (44%) over Labour (35%). Now, she’s two times more likely to back Labour (51%) than the Tories (23%). Representing 22% of the electorate she could decide the next election. And Labour Together reckon she could hold the keys to Number Ten.
The red shift
Last general election it was Workington Man, part of the Patriotic Left pack, who largely determined the collapse of the so-called red wall and secured victory for the Tories. Male, older and economically insecure, these voters had backed Labour for generations. “Economically interventionist but firm social conservatives, they backed Brexit three-to-one and abandoned Labour in 2019, with half (49 per cent) voting for Boris Johnson”. Now, according to Labour Together, “they’re abandoning the Tories in droves: the Conservative vote has collapsed to 15 per cent and Labour is winning over half (56 per cent)”.
The Activist Left are Labour’s most consistent supporters but not truly representative of the electorate – indeed it’s the group “most out of kilter with the rest of the UK electorate on social and cultural issues”, according to the report. English Traditionalists and Rural Right form the largest rump of Tory voters but even that is weakening, a portion moving to Reform, and some backing Labour. According to the polling, Labour now leads in all these groups bar these last two. In 2019 Labour led in only one of these groups. This is the ‘Red Shift’ of the title of the paper.
This is not 1997
Financial insecurity is threaded through many voters’ lives today in a way that was not evident in 1997. According to Labour Together’s polling, three in every five Britons have had to cut their spending to get by – every age group and every region in the country put “inflation and the cost of living” top of their list of concerns. They live in communities that feel profoundly insecure and the social fabric is frayed [think funding for schools, the NHS and other vital public services]. And then there is global uncertainty.
It is easier to get carried away by the deep unpopularity of the Conservatives but as this report is keen to point out “disenchantment with the political class runs through every one of our segments”. A considerable share of the electorate – currently 31% – are still unsure how, or if, they will vote and this is most apparent in the target group of voters that Labour needs to win over.
Back to that woman from Stevenage. Disillusioned Suburbans, representing 22% of the electorate, “are the largest single group of voters but they are widely distributed across the country”, says the report. They are in 430 of the 573 seats across England and Wales. “They are the largest group in 34 out of the 42 red wall seats and the largest group in 63 out of the 71 Conservative/Labour marginals that are sitting outside the red wall.”
The report goes on to say that, the “Patriotic Left are an immediate and critical priority for both main parties. They already represent the largest number of voters who have switched from the Conservatives to Labour (500,000)” and often in the red wall seats, BUT “they remain a contested group”.
Both groups suffer disproportionately from economic insecurity and as this report shows the most economically insecure are the ones who have switched to Labour, or back to Labour. But what if there is a sudden upturn in the economy [hard to imagine I know] then their vote may be more malleable and turn towards the Tories. Certainly this must be what Sunak is banking on.
The real challenge for Labour
There are some real take homes from this polling. The first is that “the majority of voters in the UK are socially conservative” – much more so than Labour members. Something that Jeremy Corbyn supporters failed to take account of. Something that Starmer has to acknowledge. So “taking a firm but fair line on societal and cultural issues like crime and immigration” will appeal to these key groups.
But these groups also lean to the left on the economy and it is here where Labour needs to draw clear red water by “developing an economic platform that makes a tangible difference to people’s jobs and local communities”. Security needs to underpin these measures – security in employment, in their community and in their local public services.
The crucial ‘next bit’ will be to find exactly where these voters are, and what real life-changing policies are possible to bring back security into their lives and that of their communities. Then, most importantly, turn them out to vote.
No polling lead can be taken for granted. This election will be won much later down the line, possibly as long as 21 months from now. There is still a lot of ground to cover but this report, and the findings, are a great start to plotting Labour’s path to power.
