![Collage of orange 'VOTE' posters with a red fist; a tilted white poster shows abstract faces and the words 'YOU the people of America'.] ,](https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/vote-people.jpg)
On 5 August 2025, Donald Trump said: “I got the highest vote in the history of Texas, as you probably know, and we are entitled to five more seats.” That kicked off the ‘gerrymander wars’ being played out even as I write this sentence.
Every 10 years, the US conducts a census and, every 10 years, states may revise congressional districts to reflect changes in population distribution. It presents a golden opportunity for the party in power to redraw the districts to its advantage. It’s called ‘gerrymandering’, a term coined in 1812 when Governor Gerry of Massachusetts approved a district redrawn in such a convoluted fashion that it looked like a salamander.
Gerrymandering may be racial (to dilute minority votes) or partisan (to minimise opposition party votes) or both. There are two common methods: ‘packing’ – where the majority party will redraw a district to squeeze in as many likely minority/opposition voters as possible, creating ‘safe seats’ for two or more of their own candidates; and ‘cracking’ – where the majority party spreads out likely minority/opposition voters into as many districts as possible, thus making their vote inconsequential.
Gerrymandering has gone on throughout American history but, with the advent of advanced computers, it has become easy-peasy to come up with numerous options.
Republicans and Democrats in the battle of the seats
Several efforts have been made to try to end the practice of gerrymandering nationwide. So far, none has succeeded. However, 11 states have eliminated gerrymandering, by having bipartisan or independent commissions to draw up their congressional districts.
The Republican-dominated Texas legislature agreed with Trump that it was entitled to five more seats, even though districts had been redrawn only four years earlier. Democrat governor of California, Gavin Newsom, announced that since Texas was entitled to five more seats, California was also entitled to five more seats. Because the state has an independent commission drawing its congressional map, California voters had to decide whether to redistrict through a referendum. They voted ‘yes’: they too were entitled.
And on it went.
Virginia followed California with a referendum that will add two to four seats to the Democrats. A judge in Utah ordered redistricting that will give Democrats one more seat. Three GOP (Republican) majority state legislatures, like Texas, also entitled themselves to more seats. Five states declined to redistrict. The Florida GOP majority legislature, not the voters, decided they are entitled to three to five additional seats…and it only took them one day to do it. The current score card stands at GOP – 11-14 more seats, Democrats – eight to 10.
An April 2026 poll by the Economist/YouGov found that 71% of Americans consider gerrymandering wrong. And it’s fairly even among Democrats (74%), GOP (69%) and Independents (70%).
The Supreme Court doesn’t care. It ruled the Louisiana redistricting two years ago that added a second black majority congressional district was “unconstitutional racial gerrymandering”. (One-third of the state’s population is black: it currently has four white congressmen and two black congressmen.) The governor immediately declared a state-wide emergency and halted congressional primary voting that was already underway. The GOP majority state legislature can quickly gerrymander districts to pack and crack black voters.
This Supreme Court ruling also directly contradicted a decision it made less than three years ago regarding Alabama’s congressional map, ordering it to add a second black majority district. Alabama may now go back to its 2022 gerrymandered map with only one black majority district. But the legislature has to move quickly. Primary voting starts 19 May. Tennessee, South Carolina, and possibly Mississippi may also join Louisiana and Alabama. We can expect more states to redistrict before the presidential election in 2028.
The Supreme Court has, in effect, eviscerated the 1965 Voting Rights Act. The US may now be returning to the era of Jim Crow after the Civil War. I lived it as a kid in southwest Missouri. Joplin was as segregated as Johannesburg – separate schools, separate public toilets, separate seating in movie theatres. As 8-year-olds, we liked to sit in the balcony, not realising (or caring) that we were the only white faces up there.
What if Trump’s low polling gives the Democrats control?
This gerrymander war stems from Trump’s very real fear that if Democrats gain a majority in the House of Representatives, he will become the lamest lame duck president in US history. That might include getting impeached for a third time.
Trump claims to be an “extraordinarily brilliant person”, yet he fails to understand that his gerrymandering efforts will probably not help him or the GOP in November. Two out of three Americans now think he stinks, including some Republicans. AP’s latest poll puts Trump’s overall approval rating at 33%, even lower than after the January 6 invasion of the Capitol. Among independents it’s 23%. The Polymarket prediction site shows an 84% chance that Democrats will flip the House. The question isn’t ‘will they?’ but ‘by how many seats?’ Polymarket currently thinks Democrats will have a 20-22 seat majority next year.
Even more important will be control of the Senate. The GOP now has 53 seats, Democrats and Independents 47. Twenty GOP seats and 13 Democrat seats will be decided in November. As Senate races are state-wide, gerrymandering doesn’t help. If Democrats take over the Senate, Trump will be lucky to get his loyal cronies appointed even as dog catcher, and will have no chance to maintain the conservative status quo on the Supreme Court should either Clarence Thomas or Samuel Alito step down.
Furthermore, Democrats in both houses will decide which bills get a vote. They will control all the committees that can delve into the Trump administration’s malpractices, corruption and, horror of horrors, the Epstein files. Polymarket gives Democrats a slight edge of 53% in the Senate.
Restricting and intimidating voters could be the least of it
In addition to gerrymandering, Trump has pushed for adoption of the SAVE Act to suppress opposition votes. It would require every voter to show proof of citizenship in the form of a birth certificate or passport; restrict on-line, mail-in and in-person drives to register; and add cumbersome requirements for election officials. It’s mainly aimed at minority and women voters, but would affect practically everyone. (I call it the STSS Act – Save Trump’s Sorry Self).
Trump allies have suggested sending ICE and CBP agents to polling stations to intimidate likely opposition voters. The White House denies it, but then the White House denies all sorts of things that come to pass. It would be totally illegal, but that has never been a problem for the felon-in-chief.
My nightmare scenario: Trump cancels the mid-term elections altogether. That brings out millions of protestors, infiltrated by MAGA provocateurs causing enough mayhem to give Trump the excuse to declare martial law, dissolve congress and the courts, order the national guard and military to patrol the streets, and achieve his fondest wish – to become a dictator like his BFF Vladimir Putin.
Former UK prime minister, Harold Wilson, said: “A week is a long time in politics.” Just imagine what a lot there is likely to be to look forward to in the next six months.
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