During the Watergate scandal, President Richard (‘Tricky Dicky’) Nixon became renowned for saying: “Let me make one thing perfectly clear.” Donald Trump seldom makes anything perfectly clear. When asked why he ordered an attack on Iran, he zigs and zags. Sometimes it’s a war, sometimes it’s just an “excursion”, and sometimes it’s a “military operation”, (much like Putin’s invasion of Ukraine). It’s difficult to make sense of someone who doesn’t make sense himself.
Trump’s stated reasons for going to war – and the consequences so far
Let’s start with the ‘sorta’ declaration of war posted on his Truth Social platform on 28 February at 2.30am local time from his Mar-a-Lago private club. (Who else would declare war via social media in the middle of the night from a club in Florida?). He gave the following reasons for taking military action:
- Iran posed an “imminent threat” to the US.
- Iran was “close” to having intercontinental ballistic missiles that could reach the U.S.
- Iran was “on the verge” of making a nuclear weapon.
Trump gave Iranian security forces a choice: “complete immunity” or “certain death”.
Lastly, he urged the Iranian people to overthrow the regime.
Although Iranians have been chanting ‘Death to America’ since 1979, the threat posed by Iran to the US has never so far proved to be ‘imminent’. There’s no evidence whatsoever, even now, that Iran is close to having inter-continental ballistic missiles unless you use a very loose definition of ‘close’.
Back in June 2025, Trump stated the US military strike had “totally and completely obliterated” Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities. Nine months later, he seems to have had to re-obliterate them.
An ever-changing agenda from an unreliable president
Secretary of State Marco Rubio gave a different reason. In a briefing to Congress on 2 March, he said that the U.S. launched a pre-emptive strike because Israel was about to attack Iran. By this account, Benjamin Netanyahu basically dragged Trump into the conflict and, although Netanyahu contradicted that idea: “Does anyone really think that someone can tell President Trump what to do? – it is well-reported that Trump is easily swayed on any matter by the last person he speaks to.
Trump speaks vaguely of regime change. So far, there are some new faces but it’s the same regime. When asked who would control the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said: “Me and the Ayatollah, whoever the Ayatollah is.” The UK’s oldest military and defence think tank, Royal United Services Institute, assessed what it would take to secure the Strait of Hormuz. There was no easy solution.
On Saturday 21 March, Trump delivered an ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz by Monday, or he would order the bombing of Iranian power plants. On Monday he claimed discussions were “on-going” and gave Iran an extra five days. Iranian officials said they didn’t know about any negotiations. One day later, Iran reported strikes on two gas facilities and a pipeline.
Iranians know how much to trust a Trump statement. In January 2026, when there were protests and thousands killed, Trump promised to “be there.” Instead, he was a no-show.
I’ve counted a total of nine reasons given by Trump for starting this war, ranging from preventing Iran funding terrorists like Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, to countering Chinese influence. I’ve probably missed some. Trump changes his mind more often than I change my socks.
A doomed escalation by the president who was going to stop wars
In 2024 Trump said: “I’m not going to start wars. I’m going to stop wars.”
Anyone who believes Trump when he says this war/excursion/operation is winding down ought to think again. If it’s winding down, why does the US now have around 50,000 troops in the region, on Trump’s orders? It’s not at all perfectly clear that Trump’s war/excursion/ operation is “winding down”.
As early as 2016, Hillary Clinton and others cautioned us not to listen to what Trump says, but to watch what he does.
Let’s consider this: In 1968, the US had almost 500,000 troops in Vietnam. In 1975, after 57,000 Americans and a couple of million Vietnamese had died, President Gerald Ford finally called it quits. Vietnam had a total population (north and south) of about 46.5mn in 1975 and an area of 331,700 km2 (127,800 square miles).
Iran has a population of 93mn and an area of 1.6mn km2 (636,370 square miles). Iran has total military forces of 960,000. If the US military couldn’t accomplish its mission in Vietnam between 1964-1975, why does Trump think that all the forces going to Iran will be in and out lickety-split? Is America headed toward another Vietnam? Afghanistan? Iraq? It’s not clear.
Reuters reports anywhere from 1900 to over 3600 Iranians killed as of 7 April, with 1530 killed in Lebanon, 13 Americans dead, 117 in Iraq, 23 Israelis, and 41 elsewhere.
To take or not to take Kharg Island
One of Trump’s senseless idea was to take Kharg Island, where Iran stores and exports much of its oil, and has said it could be done easily. This came after the very conservative Foundation for the Defense of Democracies warned that attempting to seize Kharg Island could become a trap.
But really, it’s all about the Strait of Hormuz. In 2012, the Brookings Institution conducted a simulated war game between the US and Iran. When US forces attacked, guess what? Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz. It probably didn’t surprise anyone 14 years ago and it shouldn’t have surprised anyone in 2026.
On 8 April Trump blinked. He announced a two week ceasefire if Iran opens up the Strait of Hormuz. Will it really last two weeks? If it does, what next? It’s not at all clear.
The war is a distraction strategy but is it working?
Trump may have a different reason for attacking Iran. This unprovoked, needless and immoral conflict may simply be Trump’s usual modus operandi when things aren’t going his way – distraction. He may be hoping this will distract from the fact that the American economy is getting worse by the day, the cost of living is going up by the day, and Trump’s approval on just about everything is sinking by the day.
The odds are that the Republicans will get clobbered in the mid-terms come November, almost certainly in the House of Representatives, but they may also become a minority in the Senate. Should Democrats control both houses of Congress, there will be no more automatic approval of Trump nominations. Democrats will decide what bills will come to the floor of both chambers and will assume the chair of every House and Senate committee, which can hold hearings on Trump and his administration’s misdeeds. Indeed, Trump has said that if the GOP lose the mid-terms, he will be impeached…again. Unique among US presidents, he’s already been impeached twice.
Related to the mid-term elections are the Epstein files. A Democrat-led Congress might finally find out exactly what Trump and Epstein were up to. Already on record are FBI reports alleging Trump sexually assaulted a teenage girl. We may wonder what else Congress might find.
Trump’s survival instinct: distract and confuse
It seems to me Trump is being his usual vile self. He’s desperate to change the subject to ensure his own survival. If his war, which his former Secretary of Defense James Mattis called “delusional nonsense”, creates confusion and chaos, destroys thousands of lives, the world economy, Iran and even his own country, well that’s just collateral damage.
It ought to be perfectly clear to everyone by now that Trump believes everything is always about Trump all the time.
