It is anticipated that the office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish data this week on immigration. Provisional figures were issued earlier in the year which estimated an increase in net immigration of about 700,000 for 2022 but the latest data suggests a revision upwards; towards one million has been suggested. What do we need to know to know to determine if this rise is a good or a bad thing?
Net migration is the difference between those immigrating into the UK and those emigrating from it. Most countries, including the UK, count as immigrants non-citizens who are resident in the country for more than 12 months. Since 1992 there have been more immigrants than emigrants, rising every year from about 50,000 in 1992 to a figure of 700,000 plus today. ONS is a reliable and scrupulous publisher of data, but its data is only as good as that provided by the government and estimating migration flows is a very uncertain science. In previous years, provisional estimates have had to be lowered as the full data has become available, usually in June. This is likely to be reversed this year.
EU and non-EU immigration
Prior to Brexit, EU citizens could move freely to the UK to work, study, live or raise a family. Although there were some conditions attached to their freedom of movement, including those relating to state benefits or seeking work, they were rarely enforced. The number of EU citizens arriving in the UK began to fall following the Brexit vote. The number plummeted during covid. Many EU citizens went home, never to return, and the inflow of EU citizens continues to fall. More UK citizens now emigrate to an EU country than EU citizens migrate to the UK.
The increase in net immigration has therefore come from non-EU immigration but this does not explain why it should have risen since Brexit, especially since the government introduced the points-based immigration system to curtail it and to bar cheap labour. Prior to leaving the EU the government estimated that about 3.4 million Europeans might be resident in the UK. As of December 2022, there were over seven million EU citizens who had registered for settled status, nearly twice the government’s estimation and in spite of so many returning to the EU. Not all are working and not all are living in the UK.
There will also be other EU citizens still living in the UK but who have not applied for settled status, the numbers of whom are unknown. What this tells us though, is that the government seriously underestimated the number of EU citizens resident in the UK, most of whom were workers, and so is likely to have seriously underestimated (if it estimated at all) the annual need for replacement workers following Brexit.
But this explains only in part how the numbers have grown so significantly. The government has made very little attempt to bridge the shortfall between supply and demand as evidenced by lack of staff in hospitality, agriculture, health and social care, medicine and transport. The UK has largely had to do without goods and services rather than increase immigration.
UK visas
In 2022 (the year for which this data is relevant) immigrants, including those from the EU without settled status, were required to have a visa. The data on visas issued can be misleading as a guide to the number of migrants as many more visas are issued than are taken up. For example, only 54% of those who applied for visas under various Ukraine schemes in 2022 came to the UK. People might also apply for a work or study visa but go home before the expiry date, or couples may seek a spousal visa but intend only to spend a few months of the year living in the UK. The government does not keep a record of those who do not take up their visa or leave the UK early, nor does it keep a record of British citizens who return from living abroad.
Some nations’ citizens can travel visa free to the UK for 90 days. If they overstay, they may be ‘illegal immigrants’ but are not added to the immigration figures. People arriving under temporary work visas, for example in agriculture, are not included in the figures, nor those on short study or vacation visas.
While potentially misleading in terms of numbers of immigrants, the data on visas issued can tell us something about why people want to come to the UK and their likely longer-term intentions. According to the Migration Observatory the increase in the number of visas issued was primarily driven by three factors – visas for Ukrainian and Hong-Kong citizens (45%), international students (39%) and skilled worker visas (23%).
Ukraine and Hong Kong – an exceptional year
At the end of 2022 there were 153,700 Ukrainians in the UK, and the Hong Kong scheme for British nationals has brought in a further 105,200 immigrants. Some 45,755 people entered the UK on small boats and a further 20,661 arrived by some other means and claimed asylum on arrival. Asylum seekers account for just a quarter of those seeking protection. The total, 325,316, will represent a significant proportion of the net migration figures for 2022 – somewhere between a third and a half, depending on what the final figures are – but will not be repeated. The number of asylum seekers is likely to remain broadly the same while the number of citizens from Ukraine and Hong Kong are likely to increase only marginally. Some may also return home.
Students and graduates
In 2022, 485,758 student visas were granted, a rise from about 250,000 in (pre-covid) 2019. A rise of over 230,000 students would make a significant contribution to the net immigration increase for 2022. The number of students who took up their places is not recorded. Short term student visas (that do not add to the immigration figures) are counted separately. Some students – only post-graduate students are eligible – will also have applied for their families to accompany them. The home secretary is looking to reduce the number of dependents, and this may make the UK a less attractive option for many post-graduate students in the future.
The university sector and the UK government are keen to attract overseas students. The government want to attract the brains, entrepreneurs and scientists of the future and universities are reliant on their fees. The immigration ‘graduate route’ was introduced in 2021. It allowed overseas graduates to stay in the UK to look for work and 72,893 did so. It is likely that this route will make the UK more attractive to overseas undergraduate applicants, whether or not they take this up when the time comes.
Some people argue that students should not be included in the immigration numbers, as they are not long-term UK residents. Most leave at the end of their courses and even those who apply for an extension to work have almost all left the UK by the time their extension has ended (hence the government’s introduction of preferential postgraduate routes). While British students studying abroad are included in the figures of other countries, and there is a global consensus about what ‘counts’, it makes sense to include them, but more accurately inform the public about what constitutes an ‘immigrant’.
Worker visas
Of less significance in terms of rising numbers are worker visas. Although they doubled between 2021 and 2022 (until 2020 they were hardly relevant), worker visas account for only 23% of the rise in last year’s figures and are much smaller in number. In 2022, 166,408 ‘worker’ visas were granted which count towards the immigration figures. The minimum salary has to be £26,000 per annum for most visas but the biggest employment sector is health and social care (just under 60,000 visas) which operate at a lower financial threshold.
Other immigrants
Once the three big sources of 2022 immigration are accounted above, there is very little else. In 2022 12,000 arrived as domestic workers, and about 48,000 arrived on family visas which is probably broadly similar to those leaving the UK to join family abroad.
Is immigration a problem?
At present the UK is reliant on immigrants for functioning health and social care services. There are 150,000 social care vacancies which will not be filled unless many more people come to the UK. The construction industry is also reliant on immigrants, and homes, hospitals and schools for UK citizens will not be built without them. We could be less reliant on immigration, and there are some strong arguments for becoming so, but this would require greater investment in technology and mechanisation and re-skilling and paying well those sectors that rely most on human beings.
High immigration is generally understood as a symptom of a healthy and growing economy. While there is resistance to immigration from some quarters, most governments are keen to increase it. The competition to attract immigrants, particularly students, post-graduates and highly skilled workers amongst OECD countries is fierce and the UK’s level of immigration is broadly in line with other OECD countries, although some – Canada, US and Germany for example are trying to attract more immigrants and regularise the immigration status of those who have arrived illegally or as refugees, in part to alleviate their labour shortages. Even in the UK, the welcome of Ukrainians and those from Hong Kong was not entirely altruistic.
The government understands that we are reliant on immigrants for our national well-being, and, in knowledge of this, has encouraged an increase in the numbers. But it has done so without a public explanation and has allowed (and in some quarters supported) an anti-immigrant discourse. As the public is finding it increasingly difficult to get a GP’s appointment, find fresh fruit and vegetables and get their leaky roof mended, they are becoming more aware of the contribution immigrants make to our society and are increasingly much more tolerant of immigrants and immigration.
There needs to be a more honest and better-informed conversation about immigration in the UK. The publication of the ONS figures later in the week could provide an ideal opportunity for Rishi Sunak to shift the terms of the debate. Will he have the courage to do so?
CLICK HERE TO DONATE TO OUR CROWDFUNDER
HELP US BECOME STRONGER SO THAT WE CAN CONTINUE TO DELIVER POWERFUL CITIZEN JOURNALISM!
