Vote swapping is a method of tactical voting intended to subvert some of the inequities of the UK’s biased electoral system. In most constituencies, the majority of voters end up voting against the winning candidate rather than for them. Working with allies in other constituencies can help to boost a close running second place party to overturn a narrow majority.
In the run-up to the 2019 general election, I was one of ten people to sign the nomination paper of the Liberal Democrat candidate standing in Shipley constituency. However, when it came to the crunch, I went out and voted Labour.
Why should I effect such a seeming betrayal? Had I lost faith in the party of which I have been a paid-up member for over 40 years? The answer is ‘No’ and the explanation is that in Conservative-held Shipley, Labour was closest to unseating Philip Davies.
Meanwhile, in Cambridgeshire South, the Liberal Democrats were breathing down the neck of the defending Conservative MP with Labour a poor third. Marek, a local friend of mine, has a Labour-voting grandson in Cambridgeshire South. Marek put his grandson in touch with me, and we arranged a vote swap. I voted Labour in Shipley and the grandson voted Liberal Democrat in Cambridgeshire South.
Note that the total votes for each party remained the same. It was just that we cast our two votes in constituencies where they had a better chance of being effective. Sadly, in Shipley and Cambridgeshire South, the Conservatives held on, albeit with reduced majorities.
A flawed electoral system
In the UK we retain an appalling electoral system – first past the post (FPTP). It is a system that favours the leading party and exaggerates its number of seats. In 2019, Boris Johnson gained an 80-seat majority on 43.5% of the vote. Commentators who subsequently spoke of ‘a sweeping Conservative win’ were overlooking the distortion that FPTP brings to UK electoral outcomes. Personally, I am strongly committed to ousting the Tories at the 2024 general election and tactical voting (in which vote swapping can play a crucial role) is a key way forward.
Swap My Vote is one of a number of organisations set up to facilitate vote swapping. Its website reassures us that vote swapping is legal. It includes:
“Vote swapping has taken place informally since voting began, not least within parliaments. We know of no law against it … Swap My Vote merely introduces two individuals to each other who have complementary voting preferences; nothing changes hands, and the secret ballot still stands: you are responsible for trusting your partner.”
Trust is a vital element here. Twelve years of Conservative government have corrupted our politics and eroded trust. But by progressive-minded people combining together and being prepared to trust each other, we stand our best chance of getting rid of them and restoring some decency.
The potential power of vote swapping
The eminent psephologist Peter Kellner has a fascinating article in the March 2023 issue of Prospect magazine on the potentially powerful impact of tactical voting. Kellner points out that tactical voting played a significant role in the 1997 general election that swept the Conservatives from power. Further, he points to two by-elections in June last year when Labour regained Wakefield and the Liberal Democrats won Tiverton and Honiton. In his words:
“Both seats saw ferocious tactical voting which helped sink the Conservatives.”
By contrast, tactical voting was minimal in 2019 and, in consequence, Johnson gained that 80-seat majority.
Kellner and his organisation (Electoral Calculus) have crunched the numbers and come up with a series of ‘best guesstimates’ of what tactical voting might achieve in the next general election:
- Without tactical voting, Labour needs a six-point lead in the polls in order to become the largest party in parliament. With tactical voting, a lead of just one point would be sufficient.
- For an overall majority, on a uniform swing, Labour needs a 13-point lead in the polls. This reduces to just ten points if there is effective tactical voting.
The way forward
What our politics badly needs is a change of electoral system. As noted already, FPTP distorts the electoral outcome in favour of the leading party and therefore maximises the number of votes that are wasted. The Conservative Party has for decades benefited from that distortion and will fight tooth and nail any switch to a more proportional system. (It is instructive that the only European country that shares with the UK the FPTP system is Belarus. That surely tells us something!)
We will not get voting reform as long as the Conservatives are in power. Our first step has to be to strain every sinew to oust them. Tactical voting, in which vote swapping has the potential to be a significant factor, is an important part of that. (I put in a plug for the single transferable vote in multi-member constituencies. Put that in place and the need for tactical voting and vote swapping disappear – as does ‘the wasted vote’).
The leaders of our non-Conservative parties may be unwilling to talk publicly of cooperation and some of Keir Starmer’s comments have been distinctly unhelpful. Yet I suspect there might be a bit of collaboration taking place under the radar. And if not, then it falls to individual voters to size up options and use their vote to best effect. So let us spread the word about vote swapping.
