“Current climate commitments, leading the world to well over 2°C of warming, would bring disastrous and irreversible consequences for billions of people from global ice loss.” This powerful statement was the main thrust of the ‘State of the Cryosphere 2024 – Lost Ice, Global Damage’ report, published this week.
The report was the product of an international collaboration of over 50 cryosphere scientists who highlighted that “the costs of loss and damage will be even more extreme, with many regions experiencing sea level rise or water resource loss well beyond adaptation limits in this century if our current level of emissions continues – leading towards a rise of 3°C or more”.
State of the Cryosphere
Unfortunately, this new report barely made a media splash this week, even at a time when the annual global climate conference, COP29, is under way. With nationally determined contributions (NDCs) from countries around the world expected between now and 2025, this new report emphasised the locked-in urgency of some of the climate choices of countries. “Current NDCs are not sufficient to prevent significant overshoot of 1.5°C, with many governments delaying meaningful mitigation to 2040, 2050, or beyond.”
The report noted that these delays “will lead to CO2 levels in the atmosphere near 500 ppm, well above the critical 450 ppm level identified decades ago by polar marine scientists”.
Today’s scientists warn that atmospheric CO2 emissions have continued to rise, despite greater climate awareness, and that if the current pace continues then, “global temperatures will reach at least 3°C by the end of the century”. This year, 2024, is set to be the first year where 1.5C above pre-industrial levels will be broken. Although a longer-term average of 20 years is necessary to eliminate variability, this news serves as a warning alarm to those communities facing the early brunt of climate extremes.
The report also warned of the dangers of tipping points for ice sheets being crossed knowingly or unknowingly. The loss and damage from the cryosphere at this level, “will be extreme, well beyond limits of adaptation for many communities and nations”.
The urgency of the climate crisis is growing
Racquel Moses, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change global ambassador and CEO of the Caribbean Climate-Smart Accelerator, spoke on behalf of small islands and small island developing states, when she told Yorkshire Bylines:
“For Small Island Developing States, it’s definitely a case of pulling on multiple levers at once. The priorities are interconnected – sea level rise threatens livelihoods and infrastructure, and disaster management is crucial for resilience. Economic systems must be restructured to adapt to the changing climate, and migration is an increasingly important consideration as communities face uninhabitable conditions. But no one priority can be tackled in isolation.”
She continued to warn that, “COP29 and future conferences must move from promises to tangible, scalable actions until we see real transformation on the ground. These conferences are necessary to push the global community to act with the urgency that climate change demands”.
Cheryl Senhouse, finance innovation director at the Caribbean Climate-Smart Accelerator highlighted that climate finance must respond to critical global demands and hoped that the ‘finance day’ at COP29 could provide more additional commitments.
“While we champion much needed additional commitments for the loss and damage fund; our Climate Smart Map showcases that our region alone needs in excess of $17 billion despite having only received $700 million in commitments globally.
“While we’re hopeful, we’re still quite far from achieving the level of climate finance and action that the Caribbean urgently needs. Despite the progress made at previous COPs, there’s a significant gap between the pledges made and the actual resources reaching the ground.”
An icy blast for the UK
While the temptation is strong to think that the UK will not also be affected by the dangers of a potential cryosphere collapse, Professor Martin Siegert, deputy vice chancellor at the University of Exeter and one of the report’s authors, commented:
“There are four reasons why a diminishing cryosphere is important for us in the UK. Sea level rise, warming, weather and ocean warmth. The UK receives much of its weather by processes operating in the arctic (as we’ll see next week with a cold northerly blast). By warming the arctic we interfere with natural weather patterns that could lead to changes to our own weather in quite unpredictable ways.”
He also warned about coastal communities here in the UK, with the growing pace of sea level rise. “Since 1850, sea levels have risen globally by 20cm. But half of that has happened in the last 30 years and at an increasing pace. Extrapolating the curve to 2100 leads to a sea level rise of around 1–3m, and 3–7 by 2150 if we continue to burn fossil fuels and warm the planet.”
Siegert and Moses agree that ignoring the warning signals from a planet in peril, will only lead to overwhelming climate extremes – with both an economic cost and a human cost.
“The best – only – way to avoid such scenarios from getting worse is to decarbonise now. the longer we leave it the more problematic it becomes. The time to act for our children’s future (and those after) is now.”
