While most of us have been focusing on the budget, disturbing climate news has emerged that could make a much bigger difference to our lives
The best scientists in the world have studied the data and told us that we are on track to raise global temperatures by 3.1 degrees before the end of the century. They could, of course, be wrong. In either direction. So far whenever there have been errors in the predictions, they have been under estimates of the extent of the problem. The hope was to keep global temperature rises below 1.5 degrees by 2050. The latest data shows that last year the figure had already reached 1.46 degrees.
We have also received new information about the amount of greenhouse gases that we are releasing into the atmosphere. This reveals that we are currently adding to the problem faster than at any stage in human history. Progress on switching to new technology and on reducing consumption is being undermined by extraordinarily reckless activities such as burning huge quantities of energy on utterly unnecessary mining for bitcoins. Every single bitcoin produced uses more power than an average US citizen burns in 40 days. These useless currencies only exist to enable criminals and tax dodgers to hide and move money.
What rising global temperatures mean for us
For anyone trying to visualise a little of what all this bad news means in practice, it has only been necessary to turn on the TV and look at the images of the floods in Spain. Extreme floods, wilder winds and greater unpredictability of the weather are the inevitable outcomes of pumping more energy into the atmosphere and of it holding more water at higher temperatures.
It is hard to grasp the full extent of what this means. The last time there was this much carbon dioxide in the atmosphere sea levels were ten metres higher than at present. That means that there are people alive today who will witness the loss of all our coastal cities. Not on the worst case possibility but on the central scientific prediction.
It is possible that human society is currently organised on such a secure and dependable basis that we will be able to survive the chaotic weather, the increased expense, and the loss of valuable agricultural land that will result. It is also entirely possible that our governments and our economic and social stability are incapable of weathering the changes that are happening and society will break down in ways that are hard to imagine.
The world’s global financial system came close to total collapse in 2008 under pressures that were much less significant. Many of the largest nuclear power stations are located close to current sea levels and would be inundated. Mass migration and military conflict are virtually certain to take place if crops and economies fail.
Why is so little being done to stop climate change?
In such circumstances any reasonable person would expect the issue to be top of the agenda in any political discussion and for serious global collaboration to be underway on measures to prevent the coming disaster from taking place. Instead, we have an alarming complacency. Too many politicians have learned that they can build a career from telling voters that there is no need to over worry and we can take our time to sort out the problem without incurring expense or altering lifestyles significantly.
Countries and businesses that are currently making a lot of money out of supplying fossil fuel have funded misinformation with a vengeance. This results in some truly silly statements emerging from mainstream politicians. Kemi Badenoch has, for example, informed anyone who will listen that she is not a climate change denier but she is a net zero denier. In other words, she claims to understand the science that is telling us we are in real trouble but she doesn’t accept that we need to do anything much about it.
Astonishingly there are people who hold even more stupid views. Some of those who had their homes destroyed by the recent extreme hurricanes in the States thought they were the fault of the Democrats altering the weather.
Facing up to the inevitable on climate change
Too many politicians aren’t prepared to face up to the inevitability of a deteriorating future if we fail to act, and too many voters have decided that taking climate change seriously is a lifestyle choice that they don’t like. Science doesn’t work like that. If you don’t believe the earth moves and goes round the sun it makes no difference. It still moves. Climate change will become a reality regardless of whether people believe in it or not, unless we take action.
Instead of a consensus emerging that we need to act with energy and determination at real speed, there is a backlash that sees far right politicians climbing the opinion polls on the back of assertions that things are fine and those who worry about the future are alarmists. The reality is the complete opposite. Most environmentalists have tried very hard to avoid articulating the scale of the chaos we face because they are trying to keep optimism alive and energise us with the possibility of success.
The hard truth is that a successful avoidance of serious consequences of increasing climate chaos is now a vanishingly unlikely outcome. We can still limit the extent of the damage but there is no realistic prospect of avoiding much greater frequency of damaging storms or preventing large scale crop failures. We simply can’t build sufficient defences to protect our major cities against sea level rises. A science fiction-like disaster outcome has moved from being a remote possibility to being the most likely scenario as we continue to move too slowly and treat the issue as a bit of a sideline concern.
Labour’s budget fails to reckon with the climate crisis
If we needed an illustration of how marginally it is treated by serious centre ground politicians, who claim to understand the science, then it is only necessary to study the first budget of the new Labour government.
Duty on fossil fuels was reduced by 7p a litre; £22bn was wasted on the illusion that the way to deal with the problem is to carry on burning gas while capturing the carbon. Billions of funding continues to be allocated to construct new nuclear power stations at current sea levels. No new money was provided to put solar panels on roofs of schools, hospitals, factories, warehouses and offices.
Funding was provided for distant green hydrogen developments but only 350,000 homes will be refitted to reduce energy use over a three-year period – meaning fewer than 120,000 homes a year. The obsession of the chancellor was on achieving growth and the entire tone was that of an attempt to get Britain back to what was deemed to be business as normal as rapidly as possible.
Business is not going to be normal on a rapidly warming planet. We don’t have the luxury of time. We are facing a climate emergency, a natural environment emergency and a pollution emergency. Somehow, we have to face down powerful forces that are determined to maintain a status quo that suits their bank balance and also succeed in fighting off a casual complacency in mainstream society over the scale of what change is necessary.
Faced with new challenges, it is normal for humans to take a while to grasp the scale of what has to change. It is tempting for many to stick with what they know and cautiously make some modest changes. What the top scientists are telling us is that in the current circumstances any such caution is going to lead us to a disaster on a scale that few can imagine. We’d be wise to listen.
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