A new progress report published today by the Climate Change Committee warns that more urgency is needed to meet the legally obligated net zero goals for the country. It calls upon significant and robust government action, criticising the lost time from previous governments. “The plans in place from the previous Government will not deliver enough action.”
The progress report clearly clearly stated:
“Our assessment is that the previous Government’s policies and plans were insufficient to achieve the UK’s targets in the 2030s. There were a few good developments in some areas in the past year. However, policy reversals and delays in other areas, together with inconsistent messaging, have hindered progress just when acceleration was needed.”
In a press release, the committee argued that the UK was far from reaching its emissions reductions:
“The Climate Change Committee’s assessment is that only a third of the emissions reductions required to achieve the country’s 2030 target are currently covered by credible plans. Our 2030 target is the first one set in line with a Net Zero trajectory.”
The report acknowledged the impact of extreme weather in the UK over the past year and a half and the longer impacts of these more frequent events as the global temperature rises.
“Recently, we’ve seen the wettest 18 months on record in England. Thousands of acres of farmland have been submerged for extended periods, leading to the loss of crops and animals. The impact of this is expected to be felt well into 2025.”
A course correction is needed
Professor Piers Forster, interim chair of the Climate Change Committee said:
“The country’s 2030 emissions reduction target is at risk. The new Government has an opportunity to course-correct, but it will need to be done as a matter of urgency to make up for lost time. They are off to a good start. Action needs to extend beyond electricity, with rapid progress needed on electric cars, heat pumps and tree planting.”
“The transition to Net Zero can deliver investment, lower bills, and energy security. It will help the UK keep its place on the world stage. It is a way for this Government to serve both the people of today and the people of tomorrow.”
Recommended actions
The committee has written a priority list of ten recommendations. Primary among these are to make electricity cheaper, reverse recent policy rollbacks, and ramp up rates of tree planting and peatland restoration.
Suggestions from the committee are that by 2030, under six years from now, “Annual offshore wind installations must increase by at least three times, onshore wind installations will need to double and solar installations must increase by five times”. Additionally, in this timeframe, more homes in the UK will need to be heated by heat pumps and the market share of EV cars needs to increase to almost 100%. The previous government’s policy regarding the delayed phase out of new petrol and diesel cars “sent mixed messages to investors, businesses and consumers on the UK’s plans”.
The committee notes, “Much of the low carbon technology needed is already available. Yet almost all our indicators for the scale up and roll out of that technology are off track, with rates needing to significantly ramp up”.
The progress report noted also that the cost reduction of renewable sources over the past decade could help the large scale roll out of these technologies.
“During this period [2018-2022], there have also been considerable reductions in the cost of a range of key technologies, including solar panels and batteries. The cost reductions enabled growth in renewable generation and should lay the groundwork for rapid uptake of low-carbon technologies over the coming years.”
Confusing messaging
The previous government’s policy rollbacks have increased the gap between the UK’s plans and its targets, leaving us further off track. The broader messaging, both domestically and internationally, also caused significant uncertainty about the country’s commitment to net zero:
The Climate Change Committee’s press release did highlight some points of positive progress – focusing on the rise of renewables.
“This news comes against the backdrop of a more positive story – that the country’s emissions are now less than half the levels they were in 1990. This is largely due to the phase out of coal and the ramping up of renewables. This project has been a huge success – but to continue to decarbonise the UK we will now need to see ambitious action not just in the energy sector, but also across transport, buildings, industry and agriculture.”
From 2022 to 2023, “emissions fell by 17.6 MtCO2e [million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent] (4.0%) in 2023. This is the largest annual percentage reduction outside the COVID-19 pandemic since 2016”. Also signalling movement in the right direction, owing to a fall in gas demand.
If the trend continues with each successive year replicating the reduction, then the UK may meet the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDCs) required to achieve net zero. Our Carbon Budget Delivery Plan (CBDT) only includes quantified plans, so it may be that unquantified plans lead to greater reductions.
Emissions from electricity supply have dropped significantly – emissions from buildings and surface transport could be the next key targets in reducing overall emissions.
The Climate Change Committee also positively noted that:
“The Third Carbon Budget was met. We are pleased to confirm that the UK’s Third Carbon Budget, covering the period 2018 to 2022, was successfully met with total emissions over the period being 391 MtCO2e (15%) below the level of the budget (2,544 MtCO2e).”
No more fossil fuel extraction
The progress report from the Climate Change Committee assessed only five key indicators out of 28 as being on track to maintain progress, with many other indicators not having enough data to make a judgement.
High carbon activities need to end in order for more key indicators to be on track.
The recent admission from the government that the proposed coalmine in Cumbria was approved unlawfully, should provide some context and impetus for the new Labour government to act to meet its binding climate commitments.
The upcoming COP29 meeting in November, hosted by Azerbaijan, could signal a vital part in the UK reestablishing UK leadership on the global climate stage. It is possible though that this conference could be overshadowed by the presidential elections in the United States of America, as presidential candidate Donald Trump’s record on climate commitments is a poor one. The Climate Change Committee will publish its advice on the Seventh Carbon Budget and an updated path to net zero early in 2025, regardless of who wins the US election.
It is beginning to sound empty to say that nationally and globally, we are running out of time for cooperation to meet the existential threat of the climate crisis. However, being paralysed by fear and the narrative that ‘it’s too late to do anything’, will endanger lives, both in the UK and globally.
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