This piece highlights the inherent contradictions facing the UK: more land is required for housing but much of that is primarily agricultural land, which can only mean less domestically produced food to feed the growing population. Are we being corralled into a set of contradictory circumstances that tip us into uncharted territory?
Losing the land that feeds us
The UK is losing increasing amounts of agricultural land:
- According to Natural England, “A gross total of 111,058 ha of agricultural land [was] converted to development and vacant land between 2013–2022”.
- 111,000 hectares is equivalent to an area twice the size of the Metropolitan District of Leeds (Strategic Flood Risk Assessment page 21).
- The amount of land required to feed one person for a year varies according to diet. This also affects the amount of food the UK needs to import and the environmental effect of doing so.
- Annual crop yields reveal variation as a result of both the weather and increasingly the effects of climate change.
- Defra Crop yield data for 2023 show the following: wheat 8.1 t/ha; barley 6.1 t/ha; and oats, 5t/ha. For 111,000 hectares this would equate to 899,100 tonnes of wheat, 677,100 tonnes of barley and 550,000 tonnes of oats, ceteris paribus (which they aren’t).
This represents the potential annual loss of a selection of UK-grown cereal crops. I’m not suggesting this has happened all at once, but rather there has been a gradual and increasing erosion that does not appear to be ending any time soon.
In fact, it will likely increase given the prevailing direction of travel. Basic economics would state that as an essential resource becomes scarcer and demand is constant, the price goes up and if you don’t have the money to buy what is needed – tough, you don’t survive.
More people, less farmland
The government is faced with a stark contradiction: build on and permanently lose agricultural land, compromising food security, while a population already facing increased post-Brexit food prices has no choice but to pay more. At the same time, we must hope that other nations do not face the same dilemmas, retain the capacity to feed their populations as well as export food to the UK and continue to trade with us. All this assumes our neighbours, near and far, remain allies, do not erect trade barriers and that peace prevails.
As more agricultural land is lost, prices can only go in one direction. The elephant in the room is a rising population. More housing is needed, less food can be produced domestically, prices rise and the quality of food falls as it becomes more unsustainable and prohibitively expensive to produce on less land.
The donkeys brought us to this point.
Growing dependence on imported food
The UK imports 46% of its food. In my opinion, this is wholly unsustainable, although those with vested interests may disagree.
Importing food is subject to various political and economic vagaries including price fluctuations and varied standards. The threats to the availability of food are identified in the Defra UK Food Security Report 2024.
Unsurprisingly, climate change is cited.
The environmental cost of food imports
Let’s consider the environmental impact of importing food and its contribution to climate change.
For all Britain’s rhetoric at COP this and COP that, this is the price future generations will not be paying for, but suffering from.
We need more houses and more houses require more land and people require more food.
What the government data tells us
Defra’s Food Transport Indicators are the official statistics covering the environmental impacts of transporting food consumed in the UK. They include:
- Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) food kilometres.
- Air food kilometres.
- Carbon dioxide emissions from food transport.
- Urban food kilometres.
It says something that Defra’s most recent data, that I could find, only goes up to 2010. A different world and a different time. Food for thought (pun intended).
The facts are that while this provides a baseline, it does not factor in pollution arising from congestion. The data states that since the introduction of European emissions standards PM10 & NOx emissions have ‘decreased significantly’.
It is questionable whether this data goes far enough, as it does not cover the impact and consequences of food-transport-related environmental impacts. It would seem to me that this is a key indicator that needs to be maintained year-on-year to be able to identify trends and for government to do something to prevent the adverse impacts from getting any worse than they are and actually take (where possible) steps to implement improvements that can reverse the effects of climate change.
What happens if we keep building?
In the next 10 years, will another 111,000 hectares of agricultural land have disappeared under the government’s myopic focus on the need for more housing while continuing to ignore the consequential impacts which are equally significant?
| Transport mode | Typical use for imported food | CO₂e emissions (g per tonne-km) | Main pollutants | Other environmental impacts | Principal source |
| Deep-sea shipping | Around 95% of imported food by weight | 10–40 | CO₂, NOₓ, SOₓ, PM, black carbon | Marine pollution, ballast water, underwater noise, invasive species, oil spills | UK GHG Conversion Factors; IMO Fourth GHG Study (GOV.UK) |
| Road (HGV) | Ports to distribution centres and retailers | 62–150 | CO₂, NOₓ, PM₂.₅, PM₁₀ | Tyre/brake microplastics, congestion, habitat fragmentation, road runoff | DfT Transport & Environment Statistics (GOV.UK) |
| Rail freight | Limited inland distribution | 15–30 | CO₂ (diesel), NOₓ | Noise, land take, habitat fragmentation | UK GHG Conversion Factors (GOV.UK) |
| Air freight | High-value/perishable food only | 500–1,500+ | CO₂, NOₓ | Contrails, induced cirrus clouds, airport noise | UK GHG Conversion Factors; IPCC AR6 (GOV.UK) |
The increasing loss of agricultural land can only lead to the need to import more food in the years ahead. Scant consideration was given to this during the Brexit sales pitch or to its consequences and none to the constraints that the countries the UK imports food from face.
What about the pollution trends resulting from increased food imports?
As if not to compound matters further:
- 9.5 million tonnes of food are wasted each year in the UK!
- The UK is classified as one of the world’s most nature-depleted countries in the world according to the 2023 The State of Nature report, and is it any wonder?
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