With crunch elections looming in the UK and Europe, new data seems to suggest that Britons increasingly want their country to rejoin the EU. The findings are timely as they come just ahead of this weekend’s elections to the European Parliament, the first since 2019, and also ahead of the UK general election on 4 July.
There also appears to be a growing clamour for the so-called ‘B-word’ – Brexit – to move up the agenda in the UK election debate with nearly six in 10 (58%) thinking the UK’s relationship with Brussels should be one of the main issues in the election. The survey found that if there was a vote on EU membership now 48% would vote to rejoin with just 31% still plumping to stay out.
UK parties silent on Brexit in campaign so far
With little or nothing currently being mentioned about the B-word, as many as 58% of those polled said Brexit should be an issue in the UK campaign, according to the survey of 1,242 voters by the pro-EU European Movement UK. Meanwhile, a second poll says that the majority of Labour supporters back rejoining the EU.
The BMG Research said that 63% of those currently planning to vote Labour next month also back rejoining the EU. This may increase pressure on a Labour government to at least open talks with the EU on rejoining some EU schemes such as the Erasmus student exchange programme. London Mayor Sadiq Khan told Politico this would be a ‘win-win’ for the UK that would boost growth and the country’s standing in the world.
Opportunities exist for disruption or for democratic renewal
The EU elections themselves have been overshadowed to some extent by Rishi Sunak’s surprise decision to call a snap UK election. Even so, this has not dampened real fears that the parliament will include huge numbers of new MEPs from extreme political parties.
For some observers, there are concerns that this shift could disrupt long-standing EU alliances and policies, particularly in environmental and immigration areas, while emboldening adversaries like Russia and China.
Giles Merritt, a former Financial Times bureau chief in Brussels and founder of Friends of Europe, says the anticipated fragmentation of political power, with a quarter of new MEPs expected to be from the far right, highlights the “EU’s communication failures and growing public dissatisfaction”. He told Yorkshire Bylines that, “the necessity for coalition-building and consensus might transform a potential crisis into an opportunity for democratic renewal and greater engagement”.
Turning point against forces of disintegration
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, or CER, another respected Brussels-based thinktank, warns:
“These elections may prove to be a turning point in the history of the EU, with the forces of disintegration set to balance and perhaps weaken the forces promoting integration, more that at previous elections. There is a thing called the democracy paradox, where people say democracy is the best system but then vote for parties that would restrict its main tenets.”
German Euro deputy Terry Reintke, an MEP for 10 years, believes the EU elections are more than a contest for political power:
“They are a battle for the soul of Europe. It is imperative that voters reject those who seek to dismantle Europe from within.”
On Thursday, the Netherlands became the first EU member state to vote with most other countries heading to the ballot on Sunday. Dutch exit polls could give a clearer picture about the EU-wide results, in particular about the performance of the far right. The Netherlands has, in recent times, witnessed the rise of far-right groups and Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV) is forecast to see its number of MEPs rise from just one to nine.
Campaign focus on safeguarding democracy and benefits of EU
As the EU election campaign ends, the EU Parliament’s ‘Use your vote’ film, highlighting the importance of voting “and safeguarding democracy”, has been viewed more than 504 million times, it has been revealed. The ‘Use your vote’ video has been shown by TV channels across the continent, and also in venues such as cinemas and football stadiums.
Arguably the most single important element of parliament’s election campaign, which has cost an estimated €30mn, the video features testimonies of senior citizens from different EU countries passing on their stories about democracy to the next generations “and underlining that democracy and voting cannot be taken for granted”.
More than 370 million people are eligible to vote in the elections, from Finland in the north to Cyprus in the south, with polling stations open from 8am to 2pm (electronic voting is possible until 4pm). Some 750 seats are up for grabs, 15 more than in 2019. In Belgium, people aged 16 and 17 will be able to vote for the first time (16-year-olds in Germany, Austria and Malta can already vote).
The parliament, the only directly elected EU institution, launched a glossy communications drive this year, designed to raise awareness of the elections. Turnout has declined steadily since the first direct elections in 1979, although that trend was reversed in the 2019 elections when just over 50% of electors voted. Its interactive, multilingual ‘What Europe Does For Me’ website, gives examples of what the Parliament calls the “positive difference that the EU makes to people’s lives”.
The first results are expected around 11pm on Sunday.
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