Keir Starmer is often described as Britain’s most unpopular prime minister ever. As he fumbles, other parties are smelling blood. Reform UK Ltd nips at his right, while Zack Polanski’s Greens capture disillusioned voters to the left. What went so wrong?
This is the result – and Farage’s reward – of a generation of political misdirection towards post-truth populism, where showmanship outweighs substance. Reform UK enjoys a stable, substantial polling lead, while the Greens have surged to match Labour. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats struggle for attention, while the Conservatives increasingly sideline themselves.
Britain has never seen such a dramatic shift in living memory, with major parties being abandoned. The unsettling question is: what will this surge in populism do to Britain next, and will Labour respond effectively?
The rise of populism
Modern politics is now defined more by attention than policy. The Trumpian tactic of “flooding the zone with shit“, as Steve Bannon described it, has turned politics into a spectacle of noise and fearmongering.
The signs have been clear for a long time. In 2009, the BBC’s Question Time invited far-right BNP leader Nick Griffin onto the show, leading to its most-watched episode ever. This came amid the financial crisis, which crushed wages, growth, optimism, and trust in government. Labour lost credibility with working-class voters, while the expenses scandal further eroded faith in mainstream politicians. David Cameron’s austerity measures targeted the poorest and most vulnerable, slashing public services and weakening community institutions.
Mainstream politics became toxic. Within a decade, Britain went from a left-of-centre government, to a right-wing, populist government dominated by Brexiters, and the two-party system began to unravel.
How Labour’s victory became a defeat
Labour won in 2024 despite receiving fewer votes than it did in 2019’s defeat, and actually lost ground in some of its traditional strongholds. Its landslide was largely thanks to Tory voters staying home. People were simply sick to the back teeth of the Tories.
Internal advisers like Morgan McSweeney misread the election as a simple case of reclaiming wavering Conservative voters. Instead, Labour failed to recognise what it had lost – its heartlands and base – and what it had won – a mandate to tackle Britain’s deep-rooted crises. Voters wanted a change, not simply a Labour government.
Yet instead of acting, Labour dusted off the New Labour handbook and shuffled deckchairs as the ship sank.
Almost immediately, the party cut winter fuel payments – a kneejerk move seemingly based on a Treasury suggestion rejected even by the Tories. Among over-65s, disapproval soared from 32% in July 2024 to over 80% that October. Labour had overplayed its hand in one of the least transformative ways possible.
The collapse of the political centre
Faced with surging disapproval, Labour pivoted from long-term policy to short-term reaction. It revived New Labour’s authoritarian tendencies, reheated Tory culture war rhetoric, and appeared to attack vulnerable groups arbitrarily. Labour voters’ priorities – public services, cost-of-living support, reversing austerity – were watered down, along with principles protecting LGBTQ+ rights or resisting xenophobic dog whistles, culminating in the shameful, Enoch Powell-echoing, “island of strangers” speech.
Labour has reshaped itself into a party fearful of alienating Reform voters. Most recently, Labour Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has insisted that Labour should implement the Danish immigration system, even as that country’s “ghetto law” faces a backlash for being directly discriminatory by breaking up families, demolishing social housing, and evicting tenants in majority-minority areas; Mahmood’s Blue Labour faction harbours spokespeople like Maurice Glasman calling for the return of the stocks, an absurd proposal that even the average Reform voter doesn’t support.
A failed strategy
This strategy has failed. Former Hull Labour councillor Peter North – now independent – put it succinctly:
“Labour’s attempts to neuter the rise of the far-right through talk of ‘smashing the gangs’ and ‘stopping the boats’ has only served to draw focus to the hatred they promote and is creating a Britain of mistrust, anger and division.”
Starmer is the least popular overall PM since polling began – even less liked than Liz Truss. Alienated left-wing and young voters are rallying to the Greens, whose membership has tripled to 150,000 since September. For every under-25 choosing Labour, two choose Green.
Labour faces peril from both political fronts. “King of the pollsters”, Sir John Curtice, now says the centre cannot hold for a reason.
How Labour can get out of this mess
Without a clear narrative, Labour ministers appear unconvincing, untrusted when blundering, and unnoticed when achieving. The “Ming vase” strategy of cautious inaction is no longer viable; Britain’s crises demand bold, decisive, and immediate action. Instead of abstract talk about growth, Labour must deliver new institutions, investment, and infrastructure.
Devolution is crucial; Andy Burnham is right to highlight Whitehall’s neglect of Manchester, an economic powerhouse. Labour cannot afford to be seen as robotic and insincere, nor a carbon copy of late-90s Blair. Starmer can be a progressive, persuasive and human leader, yet few visible signs of this exist.
Sporadic policy announcements are not enough. Voters will not reward breakfast clubs if there’s no clear anti-child poverty drive. Labour must act like a centre-left, proactive government and not like a centre-right, reactive party of opposition. Without a compelling narrative, Labour has no reason to exist; voters are sick of parties that offer only blame or obstruction. They want to vote for something, whether that’s the Greens or Reform.
The Greens’ centralisation under one ‘charismatic’ leader, us-against-them rhetoric, and soundbites like “abolishing landlords“, ring the same populist alarm bells, while their NATO policy remains a concern for many voters. Labour’s Darren Jones has leant into this fear, describing the Greens as a “populist left version of the populist right“. Polanski’s tilt towards “eco-populism” has led to a rapid surge of the Greens’ relevance, and has rattled Labour insiders; one Downing Street official complained of “haemorrhaging far more votes to the left than we are to the right … but doing nothing about it”, and that Starmer’s leadership “is just totally obsessed with Reform”.
Yet, with the Greens becoming one of the few parties robustly opposing Farage and being unashamedly progressive, this form of populism will have positive ramifications; one might be to pull Labour out of its opposition towards progressive issues like implementing a wealth tax in the midst of soaring inequality. If Labour refuses to adapt to this wave of progressivism, Polanski’s goal of “replacing Labour” may only take a matter of months; the Greens are the party most chosen amongst under-50s.
The path ahead may be rockier
Today’s crisis is the natural outcome of mainstream parties attempting to emulate hardliners. Social media amplifies the loudest voices: 71% of Britons get their news online, and 15% of under-25s worldwide use AI for news every week. Engagement thrives on fear, anger, and urgency.
Over half of voters now put immigration in their top-three issues. Reform dominates the narrative through sheer noise, and gains legitimacy through Labour’s co-opting of its rhetoric.
The warning signs are there: if we are not careful, today’s America could be Britain tomorrow. We are risking a tidal wave of division, post-truth politics, that threatens to dismantle national institutions, the rule of law, and democracy itself.
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