Following the prime minister’s demolition of Kemi Badenoch at the dispatch box earlier this week when he outlined the India trade deal, the US tariffs deal, and the EU-UK reset deal, a number of things became clear.
Despite hysterical headlines in the pro-Brexit media of “betrayal” and “surrender” over a youth mobility scheme between the UK and the EU, and a new fisheries agreement, the UK is moving on from a war footing with Brussels.
New deals with the EU – who’s arguing, really?
The expected rows whipped up by the media failed to ignite. Farage had made himself scarce – conveniently going on holiday to France – and wasn’t around to man the barricades. “The first through the e-gates,” Keir Starmer jibbed at Wednesday’s PMQs.
There was also little push back from MPs in coastal constituencies, and it is clear the Tories in parliament have no big Brexit hitters and no Star Chamber to keep dejected back benchers in line. It was left to die hard Brexiter Mark Francois to complain about “dynamic alignment” and he was swatted away by Starmer with a sharp put down: “I’d forgotten about some of the nonsense that’s spouted…”
Outside parliament Michael Gove is invisible, a panicked Jacob Rees-Mogg has called for an anti-Labour pact with Reform UK Ltd, and Boris Johnson was reduced to making unsavoury jokes that even some of the media had to explain to puzzled readers. But it got him back in the media, ready to pounce when Badenoch falls.
And more deals to come…
It is now also clear that Labour’s strategy with trade deals is to get them done quickly, either by securing heads of agreement, or by securing outline agreements and filling in the blanks later.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves took little time in announcing that the UK would be seeking to conclude a full trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates), the GCC.
In June 2021, the then Tory international trade secretary Anne-Marie Trevelyan said the UK would be seeking a comprehensive free trade deal including manufacturing, agri-food, digital and financial services. Little happened.
In July 2024, Labour’s secretary of state for business and trade Douglas Alexander announced an intention to press on with talks with the Gulf States, negotiations which resumed in September last year and led to a statement being issued just before Christmas.
Labour’s talks with the GCC have been ongoing and the government’s predictions are that a comprehensive free trade deal between the UK and the GCC will deliver “economic growth, higher wages and new investment. A deal will deliver targeted growth that could increase bilateral trade by 16%, potentially adding an extra £8.6bn a year to trade between the UK and GCC countries in the long run. This £8.6bn is on top of the £57.4bn worth of trade that we already have. The negotiation is progressing at pace and good progress is being made in the following areas – services, investment and digital”.
So far so good?
But who are the government dealing with?
Well… one of the areas not so far mentioned publicly is the question of labour and human rights in the Gulf States.
In June 2022 TUC general secretary Paul Nowak warned the Tories: “The Gulf States’ appalling record on human rights and workers’ rights is no secret. And yet the government is rushing into trade talks, no questions asked.
“Ministers should not entertain a deal with the Gulf States. Banning trade unions, forced labour, severe exploitation of migrant workers and other labour rights abuses are all widespread – as are attacks on women’s rights, LGBTQ+ rights and the oppression of marginalised communities.
“Time and time again, ministers have turned a blind eye to fundamental rights abuses in a bid to secure trade agreements.
“Enough is enough. The UK government should be using its leverage on the global stage to ensure respect for fundamental workers’ and human rights. And we need ministers to start meaningfully consulting with trade unions during trade talks – this is the only way trade deals will work for workers in the UK and globally.”
Nowak confirmed that the TUC “have raised our concerns re a trade deal with the Gulf States with Douglas Alexander” and “are pleased that the government has suspended talks with Israel”.
“Our view is that the government should not conclude deals with governments that don’t respect international law and human rights.”
Labour may be on a roll, but unions will want to see – and have a say in – labour and human rights clauses in any deal with the GCC.
