The Conservatives have been promising to reduce immigration to the ‘tens of thousands’ since coming to power in 2010 and yet the number of immigrants has risen inexorably.
Conservative manifesto 2019
Brexit and the points-based immigration system were intended to reduce immigration, restrict entry to the ‘brightest and the best’ and higher-skilled occupations, and to exercise more control over who came to the UK through curtailing freedom of movement.
However, the Conservative Party entered the 2019 election with manifesto pledges designed to increase immigration. Recruiting 50,000 new nurses and creating 250,000 additional childcare places required more non-UK-born staff to fill the vacancies.
The freeze on student fees with no additional funding led to universities enrolling more students from abroad to rectify the shortfall. This was a manifesto stuffed with pledges that could only be achieved through immigration – or raising taxes.
Coronavirus and Brexit
During the pandemic, many European citizens returned to their countries of origin, never to return. Following Brexit, fewer Europeans opted to come to the UK. The number of job vacancies following the pandemic revealed how much we had relied on foreign, primarily European, labour.
Health and social care, agriculture, construction, hospitality and transport were particularly affected. The government hastily drew up plans to ease shortages of lorry drivers and agricultural workers and put construction and care workers on a ‘shortage occupation list’. It reduced the salary threshold for health and social care staff, enabled employers to pay them 20% less than UK staff and embarked on a £15mn campaign to recruit nurses who would work in the UK as care assistants. Of 150,000 social care vacancies, 70,000 were filled by non-UK-born workers.
Rising immigration
In 2022, the number of UK net immigrants reached 700,000, an unprecedented level, driven by the war in Ukraine and political suppression in Hong Kong, students and a steep rise in health and social care visas.
The UK’s foreign-born population is about 14%, broadly in line with most OECD countries and rising at a similar rate. Most OECD countries face ageing populations, low unemployment, high vacancies, low workforce participation among older people and falling wages. Most are addressing these problems through higher immigration despite varying political costs.
Immigration generally boosts growth and productivity, though not in the UK. As argued by Frances Coppola, the UK’s focus on ‘putting people to work’, particularly on low wages, has suppressed technological innovation. Tying visas to specific agents or employers has increased modern slavery and exploitation. Brexit, labour shortages and asylum policies also contribute to the rise of exploited, foreign labour in the grey economy.
The government’s hostile rhetoric on immigration has not been matched by decisive action. Political backlash eventually forced it to introduce new measures: raising the income level of spousal visas to £38,700, restricting visas for dependants of students and care workers, and raising the skilled occupation salary threshold to £38,700. While the full impact of these actions is not yet known, student applications were down 28% and family visas by 80% in the first quarter of 2024.
The UK relies on immigrants
Nearly 20% of the workforce is non-UK born. They are often better qualified – even overqualified – for their jobs, and less likely to claim benefits. They are overrepresented in sectors like hospitality, transport, IT and health.
Some 21% of health care staff are non-UK born, rising to 35% of doctors and 45% of nurses. Over 50% of doctors received their qualifications outside the UK. Overall, 19% of the social care workforce is foreign-born, rising to 40% in London. Without high levels of immigration, health and social care sectors would collapse, particularly affecting those who are elderly or disabled.
Ironically, those most likely to vote for the Reform Party (older white people with anti-immigrant views) are those who rely most on immigrant workers for their health and personal care.
Election promises and policy options
The Conservative Party promises to cap immigration, Labour says it will reduce it and Reform pledges to cut it to zero. Whatever the merits of immigration, none of the parties are seeking to increase it and none are contemplating rejoining the EU, which might ease some of the problems (but also might lead to an exodus of UK workers).
The number of immigrants is due to drop considerably. The arrival of citizens from Hong Kong and Ukraine has reduced to a trickle and while refugee figures look set to rise (around 66,000 per annum at present), they are a tiny proportion of the UK’s immigrants.
Raising the income threshold for spousal visas will reduce immigration figures, but the numbers are small and there is a backlash for penalising British citizens, especially women, from living with their families or precluding their return to the UK.
Stopping dependants’ visas will continue to reduce immigrant numbers. Before the change, about two-fifths of care visas were for dependants of a main applicant. So long as it is not applied retrospectively, disallowing dependants is not egregiously unfair.
Balancing immigration with domestic workforce development
Better employment conditions, technological innovation, improved training and staff retention would reduce the need for immigration and are policies of value in themselves. However, they cannot be achieved quickly or cheaply. Moreover, each person recruited into one sector creates a vacancy elsewhere: for instance, in social care, this is likely to be from retail or hospitality. There is a finite number of UK residents of working age to be shared around and unemployment is about 4%.
Increasing imports shifts the need for labour to producer countries but at the cost of our agricultural and manufacturing bases. Innovation and investment remain the primary means of reducing reliance on human labour and, since Brexit, there is evidence of greater mechanisation in agriculture.
Public opinion on immigration ebbs and flows. The right will create and exploit discontent, but this government has not just presided over an increase in immigration, while promising to reduce it. It has actively pursued policies that would increase it, especially in health and social care (and promising 50,000 more nurses in the Conservative manifesto).
There are lessons to be learned from this. Immigration is necessary for and benefits the UK. It should be encouraged, and immigrants welcomed, but it should not be used as a means of securing cheap exploited labour. Policies to invest in the UK workforce and innovation must run alongside any immigration decisions.
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