“…the days grow short when you reach September” – Kurt Weill and Maxwell Anderson
The US just celebrated Labor Day, honouring American workers. The rest of the world celebrates 1 May as International Workers’ Day. But Americans considered that too socialist, so instead opted for Labor Day in September, proposed in 1882 by Matthew Maguire, who was a socialist. Go figure.
Labor Day also used to mark the start of the political season. ‘Used to’ because these days it’s politics 365 days a year. Immediately after Trump won in 2024, talk began about the 2026 midterm elections. Once the midterms lurch through November, we’ll get two years about the presidential election in 2028. Some have already speculated about each party’s choice.
I have tried not to pay too much attention to all the sound and fury so far in 2026. Midterm elections are now less than two months off, so we can take a preliminary look at what might go down. We should keep in mind what British Prime Minister Harold Wilson said: “A week is a long time in politics.” The numbers will change before 3 November, guaranteed 100%.
Currently, the ‘GOP’ controls the House of Representatives by four seats. Kalshi, the prediction market, gives the Dems an 85% chance of winning a majority in the midterms. Hardly worth discussion.
The battle for Congress
The Senate, on the other hand, could be a squeaker. The GOP have 53 seats, the Dems 45 plus two Indies who vote with the Dems. The Dems need to flip four seats to take over. In 2026, 22 GOP seats and 13 Dem seats are being contested. The non-partisan Cook Political Report shows 12 solid/likely wins for the Dems, 16 for the GOP, one GOP-leaning Dem, and six toss-ups.
It’s the six toss-ups to keep an eye on. The GOP currently hold five of the six seats. If the Dems win three of the five GOP seats, retain their toss-up and all others turn out as predicted, Dems flip the Senate. However, two likely GOP seats may, just may, come into play. Nebraska farmers are suffering from Trump tariffs and war with Iran – that’s 25% of its economy. Trump has slapped a sales ban on Canadian aircraft manufacturer Bombardier. Their US headquarters is in Wichita, Kansas, where I grew up. They employ 1,200 workers who have families, buy groceries, and pay taxes. Kansas is a blood red state – the last time Kansans elected a Democrat to the Senate was 1932. But they may not like that their GOP senator up for re-election wrote that he would fight for Wichita jobs BUT agreed with Trump on the ban. Folks in Kansas know sycophantic double-talk when they hear it.
Another consideration: Indies may decide who wins those toss-up contests. According to the latest Gallup poll, 49% of voters ‘lean’ Dem’, while only 39% lean GOP. This includes Indies, who now constitute 45% of the electorate.
Here’s how it breaks down:
| State | Status | Indies |
| Alaska | GOP incumbent | 63% |
| Iowa | GOP open | 35% |
| Maine | GOP incumbent | 32% |
| Michigan* | Dem open | 16% |
| Ohio | GOP incumbent | 38% |
| Texas* | GOP open | 16% |
*In Michigan, 53% are Dems, 31% GOP; in Texas, 56% are GOP, 28% Dems
The midterm voters who could decide it
Let us not forget the single biggest group of potential voters – the no-shows. In 2024, 31% of all possible votes went to Trump; 36% of those eligible didn’t cast a ballot. Midterms attract fewer voters than do presidential elections. Since 1980, midterm turnout has averaged only 48%. When asked which party is more in touch with their concerns, 46% of voters said the Dems, 35% said the GOP, 13% said a plague on both their houses.
Also, it behoves us to remember Donald’s Tenets. Not Trump, but Donald Rumsfeld, secretary of defense under George W Bush. Among his many gems of wisdom, he talked about “known knowns”, “known unknowns”, and “unknown unknowns”.
The known knowns
Known knowns: We know that when the GOP can’t win fairly, they cheat. Voting districts were determined after the census in 2021. Trump asked for more seats in the midterms and seven GOP states redrew maps to give themselves a possible extra 16 seats. Trump has tried to get his SAVE Act passed in Congress that could disenfranchise over 20 million voters. He’s failed … so far. His postal service wants to determine who receives mail-in and absentee ballots. The Supreme Court has blocked that. Trump has talked about having immigration agents and others at polling stations. That’s illegal, but illegal has never stopped Trump before. He’s already a convicted felon and has been found liable in a civil sexual abuse case.
The known unknowns
Known unknowns: We know that Trump and the GOP will continue to try all sorts of mumbo jumbo to win in November. We just don’t know what they are yet. Before the end of June, we didn’t know Trump would announce a midterm convention (Trump-a-palooza). The purpose, we heard, was to galvanise the base. They don’t need galvanising. The MAGA cult would walk through fire for Trump. It’s ‘normal’ GOP, Indies and no-shows who need galvanising, but 20 million Americans chose to watch an NFL football game in Australia instead of Trump-a-palooza. Only 2.5 million watched Trump. Given the 24-hour news cycle, Trump-a-palooza will be history in about a week.
We didn’t know until the Trump-a-palooza that he will give every adult American a $5,000 ‘dividend’ IF the GOP keep their majority in the House and Senate. A big IF.
That totals a $1.3tn bribe. Trump may think that if he offers a bribe in public, it’s not illegal. Not to worry: it will be like the DOGE cheque he promised that didn’t come and the $2,000 Trump tariff cheque he promised that didn’t come. However, in the unlikely event both House and Senate stay GOP and the even more unlikely event that Trump keeps his promise, will Americans understand he is sending them their own taxpayer dollars, which will increase inflation and add to the $40tn national debt?
The unknown unknowns
Unknown unknowns: I dare not even guess what shenanigans Trump and the GOP will try to pull off between now and November. Chances are they will be unethical, outrageous, and possibly deranged.
I wrote the above before an unknown unknown became known. The Trump Pledge: “I pledge to the greatest president in the history of the United States that loves us so much he can’t even breathe, that I will go out with my family, my friends, I don’t care if I’m registered or not – I’m going to try and cheat like hell like they do. There’s never been bigger cheaters. I don’t care. I am going to go out and I am going to get my friends, my family, and we are going to vote on Nov. 3rd or we are going to vote before that. OK. So help me, God.”
From now through November, it’s Looney Tunes.
More from J ‘Masharubu’ Strauss
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