Normally when we think of safe Conservative seats, we think of the home counties – or the south of England in general. A stereotypical view of the north is that it is traditionally Labour, red-wall territory. However, this is not always the case. Just as the north has ‘pockets of wealth’ it also has pockets of staunchly Conservative support.
The strongest of these is Richmond, North Yorkshire, which has returned a Conservative MP since 1910. The centenary of this was marked by the largest percentage of the Conservative vote in any constituency in the country, when the then Conservative MP and Foreign Secretary, William Hague received 62.8% of the vote. Before that, Leon Brittan had held the constituency since 1983, becoming Home Secretary shortly afterwards.
Richmond: the safest Conservative seat in the UK
As the safest Conservative seat in the UK, the constituency is a springboard to power. So, when the former investment banker, Rishi Sunak, was selected as the Conservative candidate on Hague’s elevation to the House of Lords, the assumption was that the Conservatives saw signs of latent greatness in him.
Their confidence was not misplaced. Within three years, he was appointed parliamentary under-secretary of state for local government by Theresa May. When May was ousted, Sunak’s support for Boris Johnson was rewarded by his elevation to chief secretary to the Treasury and by subsequently being made chancellor of the exchequer when the post was vacated by Sajid Javid. Sunak’s initial bid to become prime minister was thwarted by the appointment of Liz Truss, but after a short delay, he gained the top job.
There has been much speculation about whether Sunak and his family will return to the US, where they had lived until 2014. Following the revelations of his wife’s ‘non-dom’ tax status and the fact that he had retained his Green Card whilst a serving minister, he seems to have been keeping his options open. More recently, however, Sunak has reiterated his commitment to stay on as an MP.
At the next election, boundary changes will see Sunak’s seat restyled Richmond and Northallerton. But will the people of Richmond and Northallerton want him? Is there a chance that the electorate in the safest Conservative seat in Britain could change their politics? History would suggest not. At the last election, Sunak’s share of the vote was 63.6%. It’s difficult to see how such an enormous majority could be overturned.
A Portillo moment?
However, such things have happened. The famous ‘Portillo moment’, where the incumbent MP and Secretary of State for Defence lost the safe seat of Enfield in 1997 (where previously he had a majority of over 15,000) to an unknown Labour party candidate, Steven Twigg, has become a metaphor for a change of political fortune. The landslide in 1997 to a Labour government followed a relatively disastrous tenure for John Major’s Conservative Party, so was largely predictable. The situation today, however, is arguably far worse than it was for Major’s government.
The recent local elections produced some surprise results, not least with the election of the new role of Mayor for the York and North Yorkshire combined authority. David Skaith, the Labour candidate, was elected to become the first mayor of this area, beating the Conservative hopeful by around 15,000 votes. Sunak’s constituency covers a significant proportion of this area. Skaith’s campaign, which focused on the businesses and rural communities of the area, saw him win decisively in an area that many considered to automatically be a Conservative stronghold.
There is also a historical precedent from a neighbouring constituency. In 1997, the Conservatives confidently fielded Norman Lamont, former chancellor of the exchequer, as a candidate for Harrogate and Knaresborough, only for him to lose to the Liberal Democrat candidate, Phil Willis. And let’s not forget last year’s by-election in Selby and Ainsty in another part of North Yorkshire where Keir Mather was elected on a swing that was, at that time, the largest swing from the Conservatives to Labour since 1945. It is potentially a sign of what could happen in Richmond and Northallerton this election.
Is Sunak safe?
Only last year, the Conservatives lost the safe seats of Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire to Labour in by-elections – unthinkable, at one time. The combined blows of Brexit, the Covid pandemic and Liz Truss’ disastrous economic policies have all impacted voters, and – regardless of who is PM – are being laid at the door of the Conservative Party.
So, is Sunak safe? The latest MPR polling data from Best for Britain suggests it could be close, with Labour having the potential, on a good day, to turn the seat red. This assumes however that Reform UK doesn’t ask its candidate, Lee Martin Taylor, to stand aside – an interesting dilemma for Richard Tice and co. The spring data puts the Conservatives at just 2.4% ahead of Labour in Richmond and Northallerton, which makes this seat an exciting one to watch.
Labour announce their candidate for Richmond and Northallerton
Although the new constituency has until now been identified by Labour as a non-battleground seat, the local campaign is fired with enthusiasm, boosted by the success in the North Yorkshire mayoral election and Selby and Ainsty. Newly announced candidate Tom Wilson said:
“After a hugely successful North Yorkshire mayoral campaign, Labour is in prime position to cause a real upset. The Conservative lead over Labour here is dwarfed by the voters saying they’d be willing to vote tactically.
“As an NHS worker, I’m standing to provide voters with a real, credible choice. If you want a new MP who will stand up for our NHS, stamp down on river pollution, and campaign for better public transport and services, vote Labour to beat Sunak on 4 July.”
Green Party campaigning in Richmond and Northallerton
The Greens likewise are feeling positive about their local campaign. Kevin Foster, who was also the Green Party candidate for in the recent mayoral election, told me:
“Like many people, I feel this election is long overdue and this tired government has done the country no favours by prolonging the agony. The Green Party has radical, forward-thinking ideas to change this country and create a better future for everyone.
“We need a local MP who knows the area and genuinely cares about it. I’m experienced at all levels of local government and feel ready to stand in Westminster on behalf of all residents in this constituency, giving us the strong voice we need.”
Lib Dems fighting to win Richmond and Northallerton
Meanwhile, the Lib Dems, are quietly confident. Daniel Callaghan, the Lib Dem candidate for the Richmond and Northallerton constituency told me:
“Over the last 12 months I’ve been speaking to people across our constituency, and it’s becoming crystal clear that many of them are fed up with being short-changed by Sunak’s Conservative government.
“He’s been our MP for almost a decade, and in that time we’ve lost our only A&E, our rivers are among some of the most polluted in the country, our farmers are being sold out, and you can’t even get a filling with an NHS dentist. Meanwhile, his party crashed the economy.”
Six weeks is a long time in politics
So, there appears to be a definite appetite for change and a historic result in the Conservative’s safest seat is not impossible. However, as Harold Wilson once famously said, “a week is a long time in politics”. The next six weeks will seem like an eternity to everyone involved.
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