Researchers have developed a comprehensive tracking project documenting the systematic dismantling of democratic institutions in the United States under Trump’s emerging regime.
On 9 September, Christina Pagel and Sandy Laping presented their Trump Action Tracker project at a webinar organised by Grassroots for Europe (a UK umbrella organisation representing local pro-European groups). Pagel is a professor at University College London and Laping is a volunteer researcher and healthcare professional. The other webinar panellists were Dr Mike Galsworthy (chair of European Movement UK), Tom Brake (director of Unlock Democracy), and former Labour MEP Richard Corbett.
Pagel and Laping have meticulously logged over 1,200 authoritarian actions since January 2025, revealing a coordinated strategy to fundamentally reshape American governance. “Trump’s second term is not politics as usual”, Pagel warns: it is the rolling out of a deliberate, calculated plan to convert the USA into a right-wing autocracy.
Trump’s authoritarian regime
The tracker categorises the regime’s actions across five critical domains:
- undermining democratic institutions and dismantling federal government structures
- suppressing dissent and controlling information
- dismantling social protections and rights, corruption
- attacking science, environment, health, arts and education
- pursuing aggressive nationalist and destabilising foreign policies.
Examples include restricting press freedom, undermining congressional oversight, weakening independent agencies, spreading deliberate misinformation and reviewing the Smithsonian Museums for ‘un-American’ ideology. The pace is accelerating, with over 250 actions logged in August alone, compared to just 56 in February.
Pagel explained that some scholars, such as Steven Levitsky, believe that the US has already transitioned into a “competitive authoritarian state” – a system where elections technically exist but are fundamentally unfair. The playing field is systematically tilted to guarantee political victory, with strategies including gerrymandering, voter suppression, and undermining election infrastructure.
The Project 2025 agenda developed by right-wing think tank The Heritage Foundation, containing proposals for how the Republicans can entrench themselves into power, was widely regarded as scaremongering. However, an initiative to track Project 2025 shows that around half of the agenda has now been implemented by the Trump administration, barely seven months into the new presidential term.
Trump’s impact beyond US borders
The implications extend beyond American borders. Donald Trump’s foreign policy towards Europe undermines NATO, with threats against Greenland and removing support from Ukraine, while applauding populists and right-wing politicians in Europe and elsewhere. Trump and his vice president JD Vance, have launched verbal attacks on European allies, alleging a lack of ‘freedom’ and ‘free speech’. By contrast, the Trump administration has openly supported far-right populist parties across the world, from Germany to El Salvador.
The damage to science and health is huge, including withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization, dismantling USAID, and removing funding from the global vaccine alliance. The US was such a big player that this has weakened these institutions to an extent that other countries cannot compensate. As a scientist, Pagel had found it especially shocking to see the US destroy its world-leading science and health research programmes.
The US has turned its back on its former role as global protector in terms of defence and security. ‘Captain America’ has gone. “Too many people, I think, think this is only temporary … and somehow things will go back to normal in four years’ time. They’re not going to go back to normal.”
Vital work monitoring Trump’s actions
Laping, who helps maintain the tracker by logging new authoritarian actions, sees it as a tool for making the terrible enormity of what is happening in America accessible: “If we have one person who ends up using the tracker to maybe write a piece about it, or, you know, even to just inform themselves, and that might change somebody’s mind, then it’s a win, and we’ve got to take those little wins, right?”
Pagel and Laping draw parallels with historical experiences, particularly from countries like Germany that have direct memories of democratic collapse. “Good countries can go bad”, Pagel notes, recalling her own parents’ experience of growing up in post-war Germany, in a country grappling with the terrible nature of what it had done. “The worst thing you can do is simply watch it happen.”
Currently run entirely by volunteers, the project requires substantial resources to build on its critical work. The researchers are seeking support to expand their tracking, improve their website, and produce more in-depth analytical pieces.
The threat in Europe
Panellist Richard Corbett highlighted Trump’s explicit goal of regime change in Europe. As the tracker shows, the US administration is actively supporting nationalist, authoritarian movements across Europe, but European governments, he argues, have avoided confronting Trump. They try to placate him, as they fear what will happen in Ukraine if the US withdraws all support or pulls out of NATO completely, and they fear retaliation in the form of trade tariffs.
Evidence is mounting, however, that ultimately we may have to face the fact that he cannot be placated and Europe will have to come together to confront and challenge him and to work out its own solutions, however costly they may be.
Reform and the Trump playbook
For the UK, the warnings are particularly urgent. The rise of the Reform UK Ltd party, which Pagel describes as explicitly following the Trump playbook, presents a significant democratic challenge. With Reform currently leading in polls and potentially exploiting the first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system, the threat of an authoritarian-style government feels increasingly real.
In response to these challenges, Pagel and her colleagues will shortly be launching a new project to map the independence of UK governmental bodies. We’ve seen how quickly independent institutions can be captured, she explains. In the US, agencies have been systematically taken over by political loyalists who can redirect funding, suppress research, and control narrative. We must be vigilant to prevent such institutional capture in the UK.
Fighting back
European Movement UK chair Mike Galsworthy recognises the importance of mapping authoritarian actions to create a comprehensible narrative amid deliberate chaos. He describes Trump as a “master of destruction” who strategically creates overwhelming complexity to confuse opponents.
Europe and the UK must be prepared to defend their liberal democratic values. The EU is already talking up its commitment to freedom of inquiry in science and to protecting European citizens and consumers against attacks from corporate America. Pagel’s new project will, he believes, be an excellent tool for monitoring and reinforcing the robustness of democratic institutions here.
Safeguarding British democracy
Tom Brake from Unlock Democracy cites the example of the independence of the Electoral Commission, which Labour was keen to restore when in opposition, but is less so now it is the party of government. On the positive side, the UK government has agreed to meet with the organisers of the Defensive Constitutional Reform Project being developed by the 99% with support from this and other organisations to propose measures aimed at strengthening democratic guardrails.
He also noted that the UK’s FPTP system could help Reform get into government, just as Labour succeeded in winning two-thirds of parliamentary seats with just one-third of the vote. While, as Richard Corbett notes, proportional representation is a big ask in the near future, it could be one of the best safeguards against an autocratic party taking power in the UK.
Call to action
As populist movements gain ground in Europe, Reform UK dominates polls in Britain, and, frighteningly, even a Labour government is introducing laws to suppress protest, the Trump Action Tracker serves as both a warning and a potential roadmap for resistance. The message is clear: democracy cannot be taken for granted. It requires active citizen engagement, institutional vigilance, and a willingness to recognise and resist threats, no matter how incremental they might seem.
