Avid watchers of all things political are eyeing the performance of the so-called ‘red wall’ seats in the next general election as being where the action is.
These are the East Midlands and Northern seats that have historically returned a Labour MP but in 2017, and then in 2019, upset the political applecart by turning blue – giving the Conservatives seats like Bishop Auckland and Bassetlaw.
However, if you really want to watch the action you need to turn your attention elsewhere. Coastal communities are the real political bellwethers, rather than the Pennine rump or those former coal mining towns so many psephologists have obsessed over.
Coastal communities: bellwether constituencies
According to a recent Onward report ‘Troubled Waters: Tackling the crisis on England’s coast’ at every election in the last four decades, the winning party has secured a higher proportion of seats on the coast than across the country as a whole.
The report’s author, Jenevieve Treadwell, gives the example of the EU referendum in 2016, where 83% of English coastal seats voted to leave the European Union compared to 66% inland. The Conservatives currently hold around two thirds of the coastal seats, but in 1997 and 2001 around two-thirds of coastal seats were secured by Labour.
As noted, then, by Ben Cooper in a 2022 pamphlet for the Fabian Society entitled ‘Breaching the Sea Wall’:
“As the Labour Party prepares for the next general election, the ‘Sea Wall’ is a large group of seats that it cannot afford to ignore.”
An electorally significant number of seats
The number of seats is by no means insignificant. In the Onward report, Treadwell defines coastal constituencies as those with more than 30% of their area within five kilometers of the coast. That’s 114 constituencies. Cooper identified 108 ‘coastal town’ constituencies in England and Wales, having excluded large coastal cities like Hull or Brighton.
In other words, win over the coast and you win the next general election. Possibly.
Obviously this is not as easy as it looks – not least because none of the political parties seem as yet to have defined strategy for these seats (although Labour does have the impressive Coast and Country group). And yet, coastal communities share some clear characteristics and features, the tackling of which could form the basis of a purposeful strategy.
Coastal communities are poorer
According to the Onward report, seaside neighbourhoods are 42% more likely to be in the worst decile for income deprivation than inland neighbourhoods. The average coastal income before housing costs is £2,800 lower than inland. Coastal areas are now 10% less productive than inland areas – in the South East, this gap rises to 20%. Workers in seasonal tourism-related industries are more likely to be part-time and undertaking temporary, insecure work. The coast disproportionately relies on less productive industries with a disproportionate number of low-level occupations. Poor connectivity makes these labour market dynamics worse.
The lack of economic opportunity on the coast has one major consequence: young people leave. But even getting out is a problem because the bus network is appalling, with one in four routes cancelled in the last ten years.
Coastal communities have serious housing issues
And don’t start local people on housing. Second home ownership has ‘hollowed out’ communities. And the rise of AirBnB has brought a new type of tourist, which has put paid to many once thriving hotels. These are now boarded up – or redeveloped as HMOs (houses in multiple occupation). A 2019 parliamentary paper noted that, “HMOs often occupy a high percentage of the local housing stock, and are … ‘prevalent in many coastal towns’”. This trend is linked to the decline in tourism, which left many seaside towns with a legacy of redundant tourist accommodation, including former hotels and bed and breakfast properties.
What property there is tends to be of poorer quality and lower priced. And because of the age profile (172 communities in the UK have a pension-age population larger than the working-age population and 80% of these are coastal), according to Onward there is not a vibrant and active property market. Those over 65 tend to stay put. A stagnant low-wage economy does little to attract families or keep young people – those who kick start the property market and keep it vibrant.
An overall pattern of decline
There are other shared problems – for example, in coastal communities the crime rate is higher and life expectancy lower – and so I could go on, but you get the gist.
Decline has set in rather like it did with the pit closure programme in South Yorkshire in the 1980s or the general deindustrialization experienced from the 1970s onward in northern communities reliant on coal, steel, ship building and textiles.
Time for ‘a Labour sea wall taskforce’
So, what can Labour do? According to the Fabian report, Labour’s brand is not strong in sea wall constituencies, but it is more worrying for the Conservative party, who are seen as out of touch by people in coastal town constituencies. The Fabian polling does suggest that Labour can win these seats (YouGov survey 3,333 adults across Great Britain, November 2022).
Labour should up its game here. The Labour parliamentary candidate for South Thanet, Councillor Polly Billington, has suggested a Labour sea wall taskforce that could drive both the policy and the electoral plan for the key seats. It can develop policies, she says, on “connectivity, the renewal of homes and town centres, provision of decent services, as well as meeting the huge challenge of climate change”.
A sea wall there for Labour to breach
It is there for the taking. Labour now has some good candidates in these key seats – many selected over a year ago – who have got their teeth into this. Tackling climate change is something that is understood – flood protection and mitigation against coastal erosion are necessities here. Water quality and the impact on beaches and therefore the local economy is quite literally ‘making waves’. The potential to turbocharge the green economy with offshore wave and wind power is there to be exploited.
Rather like the red wall in 2019 this sea wall is there to be breached. Talking about what matters to people – for example, better bus services and access to dentists – and giving them some hope would be a good start. Thirteen years of decline and neglect by the Conservatives allows a party which understands and connects with these communities a chance of success.
And boy, do some of the coastal places need a win.
