Rishi Sunak was officially appointed as the UK’s prime minister on 25 October 2022. Being the first prime minister of colour and the first from the Hindu faith, he had made history. However, the political circumstances around him and his party may threaten to make this history short-lived.
Sunak is the fifth prime minister in 12 years of Conservative governance. The constitutional term of a UK parliament is five years. Post David Cameron, no Tory prime minister has completed a full parliamentary term. Theresa May resigned in July 2019 over Brexit. Boris Johnson resigned in September 2022 over an accumulation of issues including covid parties, economic mismanagement, and the Chris Pincher scandal. Liz Truss was outlasted by a lettuce a month later, because of her mini-budget, which was termed “disastrous” by pretty much everyone outside the government.
Shaky start for Sunak
During his first week in office, several MPs had drafted letters of no-confidence against Sunak. They were upset over his cabinet appointees and that Sunak rose to the position without any significant challenge.
The letters, however, lost prominence and soon fizzled out of public discourse. But the choppy waters had only just subsided when another wave of controversy hit the Sunak government. Gavin Williamson, Sunak’s close aide and minister of state without portfolio was embroiled in bullying allegations, leading to his resignation. Now, deputy PM Dominic Raab also faces a similar allegation of bullying and there have been calls for him to resign.
His tenure had gotten off to a rough start, given rising calls for a general election and internal friction within the Tories. Despite this, Sunak performed well at prime minister’s questions compared to his predecessor and reinstilled a briefly absent confidence and pomp into the Tory benches.
Sunak now faces the herculean task of turning things around for the Conservatives before the starting whistle for the 2024 election is sounded. What Sunak requires is a repeat of John Major’s 1992 miracle election win, when the Conservatives caused one of the biggest upsets in British electoral history.
Back to the 1990s: parallels with the Major years
Sunak inherits a British economy in its worst possible state. The annual rate of inflation rate recorded in October stands at 11.1%, a 41-year high. The flash estimates of GDP stand at a negative 0.2%. Weekly earnings, compared to a double-digit consumer price index increase, are at a mere 6%.
Prima facie, nothing seems to work, and the Conservatives are staring down a straight defeat to Labour in 2024. However, let’s turn the clocks back to 1992 when despite a high of 7% inflation, high unemployment, double-digit interest rates and a 13-year incumbency, the Tories under the leadership of Major defied all expectations and defeated Labour to win a fourth straight term.
Reports across the media, studying the 1992 general election, point out poor Labour planning for its loss in what was an “unlosable” election.
The situations in 2024 and 1992 are almost identical. A struggling economy, over a decade of Conservative rule and a widespread prediction of a Labour victory in the 2024 election.
In 1992, Major played the captain of the ship and steered the Tories through a less than stellar campaign, which had Labour ahead in the polls throughout. It was only in the last moments Major upped the ante and warned a recession-hit society of the further gloom they might face under a Labour government. These attacks landed well, and Labour lost so badly they might well have sunk into a political Mariana trench.
Back to the present and Sunak’s strategy is largely similar to that of Major’s. Sunak is on an aggressive mission to paint Sir Keir Starmer as another Jeremy Corbyn, currently an albatross around Labour’s neck in the eyes of many.
A BMG survey says that voters trust Sunak over Starmer on the economy, tax and business. While the two leaders are neck-and-neck in tackling the cost-of-living crisis and who would make a better prime minister.
However, the fairy tale ends here, as the same rating list a clear preference for Labour over Conservatives, with 49% preferring the former and 26%, for the latter.
Sunak, thus has an immense task placed upon himself to carry his party forward, making it as popular in the polls as he is. A situation similar to that of Major’s in 1992. In 1992, Major, like Sunak, led a largely fragmented Conservative Party into the elections, with the Eurosceptic wing bringing instability and vocal opposition to European immigration.
And, just as Rishi Sunak enjoys a higher popularity than his party himself, John Major was popular amongst the public, even though his party wasn’t.
Labour’s rebranding attempt
Starmer too, has been trying hard to shed the anti-business image of the Labour Party by meeting corporates and engaging with the Confederation of British Industry. He is also indulging in, what in India is called, vote bank appeasement. After the unrest between Hindu and Muslim communities in Leicester, which attracted a strong reaction from the Indian government, Starmer openly denounced ‘Hinduphobia’ in a statement.
This statement was seen as an attempt to win back British Indian votes, which under Jeremy Corbyn had transferred en masse to the Conservatives.
In terms of immigration too, the party of late has shifted stances to a stand very similar to the Tories. This was reflected in Starmer’s comment on the NHS, on 6 November, when he said that there are too many people from overseas being recruited. In the same interview given to BBC Scotland, he argued against the concept of open borders.
All in all, in politics, nothing can really be predicted. While Sunak is making a new start, hoping for a repeat of 1992, Starmer is pulling out all plugs to revive a Labour party which until now has been a somewhat dormant spectator. In 2024, it will all come down to voters and then, as in 1992, no surveys or poll ratings matter. This could be a match worth watching.
