The bad news is that after watching the chaos, corruption, incompetence and elite-friendly outcome of a far-right government in the US, 26% of the British electorate is prepared to put its cross in the local elections against the name of a party offering much the same.
Readers will by now have formed their own opinion about the honesty, character and capability of Reform UK Limited. Mine is exceptionally low. So, I was pleased to find that there was a strict limit to the enthusiasm of the rest of the British public for Reform UK’s brand of politics. More people voted for the Greens and the Liberal Democrats than for Reform. With 18% voting Green and 16% Liberal Democrat, their combined vote share was 34% which significantly exceeded Reform’s 26%. I doubt whether you have heard that fact or seen much highly-paid comment on what it might mean for the country.
The two once-mainstream parties each got 17%, meaning that – with nationalist votes – around 56% of the British public put their cross in favour of parties from the left of centre, and only 44% backed those from the right. Once again, not a fact that any media coverage has stressed.
The first past the post problem
That doesn’t mean we will get a left of centre government at the next general election. In 2024, first past the post (FPTP) elections gave Labour a huge majority with only 34% of the vote and a reduced vote number. The same electoral mathematics is quite capable of delivering a Reform prime minister.
Any form of proportional representation (PR) would avoid that. Any form of PR would also reduce the wipeout of Labour at the next election. Even if Labour recovers some of its vote share, it will find that FPTP has a viciously punishing impact on any party that falls below 30%.
The danger of Reform
It is vital that no-one underestimates the scale of the danger of Reform. It has shown it can win in any area that feels it has been neglected for years by mainstream political parties and that has an ageing population. There are a lot of those areas. Newcastle-Under-Lyme is a town on the edge of deprived Stoke-on-Trent. Reform won, hands down. Bradford has declined for years and, despite all the good work on the city of culture, Reform made huge advances. Sunderland has street after street that reeks of neglect. Reform won almost every seat.
It is also vital that no one over-estimates what Reform is capable of, or loses track of what it is going to take to beat Reform. In areas with younger, more optimistic populations such as Hackney, the Greens romped home. They did so by being clear and honest about how radical the change needs to be from the kind of free-market enthusiasm that gave us sewage in our rivers, a private contract-driven GP service, and a cost of living crisis for the poor and the middle classes. Open criticism of the proto-fascist Trump government proved more popular than shamefully crawling up to it and hoping Donald will be nice to us.
Tactical alliances for smaller parties
Reform was incapable of making major inroads in great chunks of the south and south west, where successful local economies depend on trade with Europe. In those parts of the country, those who are fed up with the two big parties voted mainly Lib Dem, while cities like Norwich went Green. In successful cities like Leeds and Manchester, the Greens made gains and the rise of Reform was largely resisted. Given that both the Greens and Lib Dems are meant to be serious about climate change, there is a strong case for exploring tactical alliances going forward. There is no case for either of those parties making a tactical alliance with Labour because any association with it would simply taint allies with that party’s serious toxicity.
How Labour could regain confidence
There are, however, two major things that Labour party leaders could do to position it for a more successful future. One is to be braver and opt for some more radical and clearer policies. Tell people honestly that Brexit has failed and apply to rejoin. Come out clearly against the ultra-rich oligarchs, and start taxing properly the physical assets, such as mansions and empty city apartments, that the elite owns in Britain. Double-down on commitments to action on climate change. Make a clear break with Donald Trump. Get a new leader who can actually communicate and isn’t tainted by accepting designer suits days after taking office.
The other thing that is necessary is for whoever leads the Labour party to think hard and long about ditching its longstanding commitment to FPTP as a voting system. It no longer works in that party’s favour and is most unlikely ever to do so again. At the bare minimum, Labour should change the electoral rules to allow people to vote on first, second and third choices, and make gaining 50% of the vote a necessity. Reform can win a lot of seats with only 26% of voters wanting them in power, but there are a lot fewer places where they can get to 50% because there are many more people who see through them and will back almost anyone else rather than let them into power.
Labour needs to get real. Its next leader matters, but its stance on first past the post needs to change before it is too late.
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