Over the weekend of 20-21 January, mass rallies took place throughout Germany against the disturbing rise in support in the opinion polls and actual elections of the right-wing anti-immigration, Islamophobic, climate-change-deniers’ party Alternative for Germany (AfD).
The immediate trigger of the protests were reports that members of the AfD had held talks with parties even further to the right to discuss demands for deportation of immigrants and refugees under a proposed ‘remigration’ policy. AfD have hurried to deny such links exist at the formal level.
Social Democrat (SPD) chancellor Olaf Scholz, head of the so-called ‘Traffic Lights Coalition’ government (red for SPD, amber for Liberal FDP and green for Green Party), announced his support for the demonstrations, as did other party leaders.
AfD: the rise of the extreme right
The AfD has grown exponentially since its founding in 2013, aided not least by Germany’s proportional representation system (PR), which guarantees representation nationally and regionally for any party receiving 5% of the vote. Parties also get state funding in proportion to their share of the vote.
AfD has grown from 17,000 members to 34,000 in 2023. In the all-German elections of 2021 they won over 80 seats in the national parliament (Bundestag). Even more disturbingly since then, the AfD has topped the poll in three regional elections, predictably all in the former East Germany.
Decades after the 1990 unification of East and West, there is deep and abiding resentment in the East concerning social inequalities. Despite the 5.5% ‘solidarity tax surcharge’, which was imposed in the West, the East still visibly lags behind, leaving pockets of severe deprivation. The surcharge was originally intended as a temporary measure to help lessen the gap between East and West; the very fact that it is still needed over two decades later is an admission that there are still two Germanys.
Euroscepticism in Germany
There has always been a definite Euroscepticism in Germany, mainly led by eccentric theorists and academics – not dissimilar to the beginnings of UKIP.
This scepticism was boosted by the Euro crisis and the collapse of the Greek economy in 2008. Beyond Germany and certainly in Greece, Germany was blamed for imposing a savage austerity on Greece as the price for staying in the Euro and indeed in the EU. Angela Merkel, then chancellor, saw forcing the Greeks to swallow a very bitter pill, as the only way of saving a collapse of the Euro and possibly even the EU itself.
However, in Germany there were widespread complaints about what was seen as bailing out profligate Greece at the expense of the German taxpayers.
From 2005 to 2009 and then again from 2013 to 2021, Germany was governed by a ‘grand coalition’ when the main opposition party, SPD, joined Merkel’s conservative (CDU/CSU) government. This led to a certain resignation, a German equivalent of ‘there is no alternative’. Indeed the rejection of this consensual inertia is the basis for naming of the nationalist populist party ‘Alternative for Germany’ (AfD).
AfD’s exploitation of resentment
The far bigger contributor to the rise of the AfD was the refugee crisis of 2013. Merkel, contrary to her famous pragmatism, acted on instinct and sentiment in announcing Germany would accept unlimited numbers of refugees. Merkel had grown up in East Germany, from where thousands had fled or tried to flee a repressive regime.
Her principled stand won much applause, especially beyond Germany but Merkel was disappointed that fellow EU leaders did not follow her lead.
Many in Germany greeted refugees with food and flowers and ‘Welcome to Germany’ placards. However, such generosity was countered by many who felt left behind and their resentment was exploited by the anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim siren calls of the AfD.
A significant turning point in Germans’ attitude towards refugees and immigrants in general, came with the infamous events of the New Year’s Eve celebrations in Cologne 2015/16. The traditional joyous event became a nightmare for many women who were subjected to sexual harassment and attack. Similar horrors happened elsewhere. In total 1200 women filed complaints and eventually in June 2016 there were 163 convictions for assault. The analysis of the assailants was a gift to the far right and for the AfD. Over 60% were North African and over 40% were registered asylum seekers.
Capitalising on the European elections
2024 will see further elections in Germany with the European elections in June as top of the danger list for further populist nationalist right wing advance. The Euro-elections have a notorious record for being a chance for the populists to receive a better than expected vote, helped by a usual low turnout. Let us not forget that the Euro-elections provided a platform for UKIP to get a foothold.
Regional elections will also be held in the depressed former East Germany, where polls indicate the highest support for the AfD in the states of Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia.
Let us hope that the massive demonstrations against the rise of the AfD and the far right will keep up their momentum and turn into votes in 2024.
