It is often the case that political analysts or operatives tend to tell the truth, or reality of a scenario, more clearly and openly than those politicians whom they serve. In the United States, the example of President Richard Nixon’s consultant Lee Atwater comes to mind, summing up what the Republican Party would look like moving forward more succinctly than any individual before or since. In the United Kingdom, one might say that the former Spectator political editor James Forsyth – now Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s political secretary – is but the latest example of this type of individual.
Conservative commentator accepts grim truth of electoral reform
In a piece in the Spectator and The Times in May of 2022, prior to his appointment by Sunak this past December, Forsyth expressed the grimmest of truths concerning his party and its electoral viability moving forward. Were electoral reforms to be undertaken across the UK should the Conservatives lose power in the next election, he noted, he and his comrades might not have much of a say in the future of the nation. In fact, Forsyth declared, their intellectual and political predecessors wouldn’t have had much power since the second world war either:
“The Electoral Reform Society calculates that STV [single transferable vote – a form of proportional representation] would have meant the Tories winning a majority only twice in the post-war era. Margaret Thatcher would never have been able to govern on her own and the last election would have seen the Tories 18 shy of a majority.”
Conservatives feel the heat – rightly so
While this information could have been gleaned from The Electoral Reform Society itself – and is well known to Liberal Democrats and those interested in refining the UK’s system of democracy – the fact that it was noted by a Conservative, and one who has the ear of the current prime minister, is interesting. It shows that the possibility of this earth-shattering and revolutionary electoral innovation actually happening is being taken seriously, even by a government which gained power under the current system with an 80-seat majority.
Forsyth was speaking the truth in the moment he wrote that piece. Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and any other interested party should be paying attention. While some Conservatives would not mind losing to create a juxtaposition between themselves and those other parties who fight to constrain and overtake them, a proper opposition victory of considerable margins – alongside cooperation and a shared goal by Labour, Lib Dems and anyone else – could spell the end of the Conservatives for years and even generations. If Sir Keir would consent, the Conservatives could be in real electoral trouble, simply because they are unwilling to change.
Alaska, USA: making electoral reform happen
This is a truth that conservatives in other nations are coming to terms with as well. In the US, where the history of the democratic process is often as peculiar as the UK’s – sometimes even more so – Republicans have also come to the conclusion that the American equivalent of STV, known often as ‘ranked choice voting’, or ‘RCV’, would have as destructive an effect upon their power as the British variant would upon that of the Conservative Party.
The latest American example of the backlash actually comes in a state known for its conservatism, Alaska, which changed its system to RCV prior to the special election of August 2022. In the two elections since that innovation – one special and one midterm – ranked choice voting saw Mary Peltola (D) defeat numerous Republican candidates for the state’s single House seat, which had previously remained Republican for many years, all because of the order that voters put the available candidates in.
Far from ensuring that conservative candidates would essentially win by being more popular than any Democrat, a liberal candidate was able to secure two victories by being the popular choice – not just of liberals and independents, but even of some Republicans. With so few Democrats running and so many, often radically far-right Republicans, in the race in that state, it was only a matter of time before a Democrat – facing less competition for votes than their Republican opposition – was marked as the second or third favorite choice of people.
Meanwhile, many of the Republicans would fail to even be numbered upon a constituent’s own list; like the UK’s Conservatives, American Republicans could tamp down those elements which might cause them to lose these types of elections – radical privatisers and states-rights extremists – but each would simply prefer to stop electoral progress instead of embracing the STV and RCV systems.
Furthermore, it is worth noting that neither of these electoral systems are inherently designed to defeat conservatives. The fear and the results only fortify the understanding that their current and historical politics, as well as the political climates of their nations’, do not actively – and did not even historically, oftentimes – coalesce with the societal and national direction that the majority of voters would agree upon – together.
An electoral system for the many rather than the few
In fact, the spectre of a more proportional representation is the same precise scenario that could all but crush the Conservative Party should electoral reform – something that is national in the UK and largely state-controlled in the US – be passed by a combined Labour-Lib Dem-et al., coalition. Conservatives can often win based upon simple majorities in certain constituencies. But a scenario where a certain percentage of the voting is required to win, and where Labour, Lib Dem and other voices can list their voter preferences in order with the STV, would easily see ‘the many’ team up to dismantle ‘the few’ in election after election.
There are simply more of these other political mindsets than there are of the Conservatives, yet while the majority is splintered between parties and non-transferable votes, the Conservative Party rules the day and the roost. Keir Starmer, for all the criticism that can be launched his way, has a clear chance to root his name into the history books in the most positive of all ways – if he decides to relent on his current stance, and his party can find a way to win a firm majority.
A new electoral era
In coalition with those other liberal and leftist groups of Britain, Labour could usher in a new electoral era in the UK, where the voices of the people are not disregarded simply because their first choice for an elected official does not have as many votes as another. Labour could help to create a UK where no vote is truly wasted – even if a candidate a person really identifies with does not win their election – and where voting really can make a positive difference and impact on society. These are the stakes in the UK, and they are the stakes in the US as well.
With the current momentum for change as it can be observed, along with so many young people coming of age – wrapped with visions of innovation and a more fair and equitable civilisation for all – real volition does right now exist to innovate and maintain both evolution, as well as a continuous social revolution. A better voting system will not only represent people more fairly and effectively, but it would further energise their political and social ambitions and their trust in political processes.
We, the present – as well as they, the future – have a chance to renovate democracy – as must be perennially done. They have a real and sincere chance to push each nation further towards a positive and mutual future, and away from one in which the few can control the many through incoherent systems which ultimately disenfranchise most people. Both the UK and the US have the mutual chance to reimagine how they appraise each person’s vote. While the reactionary sects of each nation might not like the remedies, their prevarication is in bad faith.
Creating a new zeal for democracy
Creating a greater, fairer and better represented nation must be the task at hand if the conservative parties lose power – in either nation or both. Should American Democrats and an anti-Conservative British coalition of parties led by Labour win with great enough majorities to enact these innovations, they will have the chance to invigorate the people of their countries with a zeal for democracy that could lead to the positive reimagining of our nations.
Don’t believe me? Simply ask the political secretary to the prime minister and he’ll tell you himself!
