I see what’s going on in Gaza and I feel sick. It’s tragic. Malnourished children are on the verge of starvation. In come a few lorries piled high with food aid and chaos erupts. Mobs converge. Desperate people are forced to do whatever it takes to survive.
The Israeli government claims it must control the amount of food going into Gaza. They claim that Hamas steals it to sell and uses the money to buy weapons that kill Israelis.
What to do? Does every lorry need an armed escort? When the masses try to get the food, do they gas them, shoot them? How is this crisis to be dealt with?
Economics 101
I may have an alternative based on the Economics 101 course I took at university and personal experience.
Between 1984 and 2000, I was responsible for USAID Tanzania’s food aid programme, what we called PL480. (Public Law 480 of 1954 authorised sending American farmers’ surplus production to developing countries as food aid. Trump killed it in 2025.) In 1986, the Tanzanian government requested USAID to bring in 25,000 metric tonnes of wheat flour.
Some background: Before the 1980s, wheat products like bread, cakes, etc. were mostly consumed in urban areas. The 75–80% of the population who lived in Tanzanian villages seldom, if ever, ate bread or cakes. The main staple was, and still is, maize.
But in the 1980s, to almost quote Bob Dylan, times they were a-changin’. More people than ever before were moving from the rural areas to urban centres. More people were taking up 9–5 jobs and didn’t have time to prepare a full meal before starting their commute. They needed something convenient to munch on like bread or chapatti or maandazi (Tanzanian donuts).
Supply and demand
In the mid-1980s, around 85% of wheat came from a government 100,000-acre scheme. It produced approximately 90,000 tonnes a year. The grain went to the government’s National Milling Corporation (NMC) that processed over 75,000 tonnes of flour. NMC sold the flour to a government parastatal, National Distributors Inc (NDI) which controlled distribution.
To buy wheat flour, bakeries, shops, restaurants and cafes had to first get a kibali (permit), take it to NDI and receive a government-determined ration. Not surprisingly, this cumbersome system didn’t work well. Supply could not meet demand – Econ 101. Hence the government requested 25,000 tonnes of USAID wheat flour.
Under the PL480 Title II program, euphemistically called ‘Food for Progress’, USAID imported 25,000 tonnes of wheat flour which it sold to NDI at the same price as NMC. The money went into a Joint Proceeds Fund, administered by the Ministry of Agriculture and USAID to finance small projects.
Flood Gaza with food
Once the wheat flour arrived, an amazing thing happened – not so amazing if you’d taken Econ 101. There was plenty of wheat flour. Not quite overnight but in a very short time, the kibali system disappeared. Bakeries, shops, restaurants, cafes could get any amount they wanted. The price of wheat flour dropped from the equivalent of $2.65 a kilogram to $0.88.
What happened in Tanzania in 1986 might work in Gaza in 2025. Flood the market. Bring in 500 lorries of food a day. No more scarcity. No more frantic desperate people swarming lorries, godowns and distribution points. No more chaos. Maybe Hamas stops stealing. Who would they sell it to? Everyone has enough.
It’s a matter of supply and demand. Econ 101.
