It isn’t easy for the members of Trump’s administration to get their heads around what has happened in Iran. Because it goes against the value that they hold most dear. The value of money.
Horrible as the Iranian regime is to its own citizens it isn’t one that is driven by the wish to make as much money as possible as quickly as possible. It is driven by extreme religious fanaticism. Sometimes for good. Often for ill.
There aren’t many leaders of a country who would witness the destruction of almost all of their air forces, their navy and the death of their political leaders and still feel that they had won a war. That is what the current leaders of Iran think has happened.
A strange kind of victory
Despite all the loss of life of their citizens and the economic damage to their country, they believe that they have won the war by being able to close off the Straits of Hormuz. Looked at from a long-term strategic perspective they are probably right.
Trump’s war has left the leaders of Iran more secure in their oppressive rule over the country. A regime that was at risk of toppling under a wave of popular protest only a few weeks ago has been able to argue to its citizens that it was right all along about the Great Satan’s intentions and that those who were challenging them were traitors to the cause. The last part of that is a huge lie, but one that they could peddle with considerably more success every time a bomb fell.
As a bargaining tool when negotiating with the USA, the ability to close off the Straits of Hormuz is very helpful. A country that Trump is determined to keep fuelled by fossils is very vulnerable to an increase in their price on the world market. A President who promised no more expensive wars without a clear objective and cheaper gas at the pumps has delivered one of the most costly wars ever and punished his own core voters every time they fill up. Even he must know that his dramatically low approval ratings can’t just be shrugged off as fake news.
Both sides now need peace
Two very different countries now have a significant incentive to achieve a lasting truce but very different expectations about the outcome. Trump needs the war to be over and to be able to claim he stopped Iran developing a nuclear weapon. He wants to portray the outcome as a great victory. The Iranian regime needs to deliver its citizens a bit of relief from constant economic misery, if it is going to avoid another explosion of unrest a little further down the line. It also wants to portray the outcome as a great win for the nation.
What threatens the core interests of both of them is that Benjamin Netanyhu sees things very differently. He wants the war to continue. He wants to hold onto Southern Lebanon and is likely to be seeking to incorporate its territory into greater Israel. He wants to carry on stealing land in the West Bank. He wants full control over the Gaza strip. He wants to keep the parts of Syria he has already stolen. Above all he wants to win the next election and stay out of jail for corruption.
Israel fails to bend to Trump’s will
In Donald Trump’s world view Israel is a client state that should just shut up and do what it is told when the interests of the President of the United States shifts and he needs a peace deal. That is not the way Benjamin Netanyahu sees things.
We therefore face two important new realities in world politics. One is that the USA can no longer be depended upon to follow the lead of the Israeli Prime Minister and assume that Israel is the key US ally in the region. When your ally has encouraged you to engage in a war that has proved seriously damaging to your own best interests then even the most loyal MAGA enthusiast must begin to doubt the value of the alliance.
It is going to be incredibly hard for team Trump to get team Netanyahu to stop bombing Lebanon and pull out of territory they have taken on the ground. Expect the two to fall out and for constant Israeli government violations of the cease fire to threaten a peace process that Trump needs to succeed.
Fractured European alliance
The second change in strategic alignments is between the USA and its former European allies. It is hard for Europeans to work with the USA when it doesn’t act like it believes it is consulting with equals but instead expects client states to line up behind stupid decisions that go directly against Europe’s own key economic interests.
When your nations aren’t consulted about a massively important bad decision and are then insulted for not displaying blind loyalty over its implementation, the obvious conclusion is that there is no longer any meaningful alliance.
It is one thing to house US troops and US listening stations on British soil when they are collecting information to help Ukraine to fight a war and helping to delivering supplies to it. It is quite another to site military intelligence facilities that supply information to Benjamin Netanyahu’s government which is then used in attacks which even Donald Trump thinks to have been excessively aggressive.
Old assumptions overturned
It is no longer possible for the UK to rely on the cosy assumption that the US government is on our side. It is a government that is hell bent on undermining democracy, expanding its territory at the expense of our allies and wrecking the environment in order to make money for its backers.
In a new era of realpolitik Britain cannot afford to be nostalgic about past friendships. Members of the US government are now routinely saying that Europe is finished because it isn’t being cruel enough to immigrants, isn’t burning enough fossil fuels and doesn’t have the great wisdom of Republican leadership.
Now that we’ve seen the damage that such supposed wisdom has done to the core interests of the USA it is time for the British government to cut its losses and accept facts. The special relationship is over. It is time for US troops to leave British soil and for a serious attempt to reforge our alliances with the rest of Europe so we can stand firm against the arrogance, the lies and the propaganda of our former US ally.
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