Despite the cynicism ahead of the climate conference regarding the role of the COP president, Sultan Al Jaber, who is also CEO of one of the UAE’s leading oil companies, Adnoc, it was hoped that countries would be encouraged to be as ambitious as possible in their efforts to cut emissions. Unprecedented climate action should meet the unprecedented climate crisis head on. However, leaked documents ahead of the conference also suggested that the hosts were planning to strike deals with other countries to continue to develop oil and gas resources.
COP28
COP28 is the annual United Nations climate conference where governments discuss how to both limit and prepare for future climate change. It is hoped that holding the conference in the petrostate of the United Arab Emirates, will help facilitate fossil fuel companies’ response to the climate issues.
At first glance, comparing the progress from the last climate conference in Egypt may make poor reading. However, as Professor Katherine Hayhoe writes:
“Ten years ago, the world was on a pathway to warm by up to 5°C (9°F) by the end of the century, according to the analysis I led for the last US National Climate Assessment.”
Today, thanks to policies enacted since the Paris Agreement was signed, this magnitude of warming is “totally out of the picture. It will not happen“, said New Climate Institute scientist Niklas Hohne.
Hayhoe continued:
“According to the Climate Action Tracker, current policies will limit warming to 2.7°C (5°F) and this number could fall even further with more aggressive climate action. It’s still not enough to avert dangerous levels of change, but as the science says, ‘every bit of warming matters’. The very real and quantifiable benefits of what we’ve achieved so far encourage us to keep going, and there’s plenty of positive information out there.”
King Charles sets out environmental vision at COP28
King Charles addressed delegates passionately at the opening of COP28, emphasising his own personal response to the changing climate. “It worries me greatly that we remain so dreadfully far off track.” He emphasised that the past year had witnessed the impact of extreme weather around the world, “We are seeing alarming tipping points being reached” and cautioned that humanity was heading “into dangerous uncharted territory”.
He challenged the delegates at the climate conference by posing the question “How dangerous are we actually prepared to make our world”. King Charles acknowledged the teachings of indigenous peoples – often at the front line of climate impacts – by reminding conference that “The Earth does not belong to us – we belong to the Earth”.
State of the global climate
These climate impacts were highlighted in the United Nations own ‘State of the Global Climate report’, which was published on the same day as COP28 started. This report confirmed that 2023 was set to be the warmest year on record and that 2023 was about 1.40°C above the pre-industrial 1850-1900 baseline. This report starkly outlined the key scientific messages, which were hard-hitting, noting that:
“… the past nine years, 2015-2023, will be the nine warmest years on record.”
“Ocean heat content reached its highest level in 2022.”
“Antarctic sea-ice extent reached an absolute record low for the satellite era in February.”
The report continued with its dire litany of extreme records:
“Extreme weather continues to lead to severe socio-economic impacts. Extreme heat affected many parts of the world.”
“Food security, population displacements and impacts on vulnerable populations continue to be of concern in 2023.”
The report concluded that global preparedness and cooperation was key to minimising risk to life.
“To better prepare for these contexts, governments, communities, civil society, and the UN are engaged at all levels to strengthen climate resilience and effective disaster risk reduction.”
Climate denial and delay
Unfortunately, global cooperation was called into question over the last few days, when Al Jaber reportedly denied that there was any science behind demands for a phase out of fossil fuels, creating further rifts between the scientific community and political negotiators. Al Jaber clarified some of his comments on Monday, but by then, arguably the damage was done.
These comments were responded to vigorously by Professor Michael Mann and former IPCC vice-chair, Professor Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, in their co-authored release, in which they stated:
“Speaking on behalf of the climate system, this our red line: humanity needs to agree on the phasing out of fossil fuels by 2050, and on stopping net deforestation at the same time.”
The authors continued by stating: “The climate system does not do politics. It does not play with words.”
The authors argue strongly that keeping the 1.5°C goal alive is essential and that this should not be passed by quickly in order to accept a much higher goal.
“[The 1.5°C goal] was not adopted because it was easy to achieve, but because of the severity of the damages we can avoid by not crossing that warming level.”
Are these climate conferences necessary?
Professor Lavanya Rajamani, professor of international environmental law at the University of Oxford, told Yorkshire Bylines that these climate conferences:
“… fulfil a catalytic role, offer a direction of travel for the international community, and provide an annual ‘moment of reckoning’ for the international community – states and others – on their climate credentials and actions.”
She argued that: “We have come further than we would have in the absence of the Paris Agreement, and the annual COPs that focus attention on states actions/inactions. But whether we will take decisive action in this critical decade, and resolve the issue of climate change, remains to be seen.”
Rajamani further offered that, for her, the best solution would be one where there was “a clear signal that more needs to be done – on all fronts, not just in terms of reducing dependency on fossil fuels and increasing renewables, but also in relation to providing support for implementation”. She argued that there should also be a “clear follow-up process holding ‘feet to the fire’ on commitments/ pledges made by states”.
The hope of the world rests on COP28
Although it is said that mirages offer false hope – they can also drive people on when they are lost and stumbling. This forward motion and momentum increases the distance travelled. It is worth remembering that these climate conferences are one of the few mechanisms that we currently have to shape the direction of global climate, through agreements that are made.
It is perhaps worth remembering how far we have come, rather than how far we have to go and understanding that positive climate action can come at a rapid and overwhelming pace. After all, what choice do we have? To cynically abandon the climate conferences and see them only as political manoeuvrings, ignores the possibility and promise of global climate action.
As King Charles charged in the conclusion of his remarks:
“The hope of the world rests on the decisions you must take.”
