Just over four years ago, a New Year’s Eve Agreement was born to Gibraltar, UK and Spain. It was a healthy bouncing baby, a preliminary framework which showed every promise of making its progenitors proud by growing into an important treaty which would resolve Gibraltar’s future relationship with the EU.
The child hasn’t been seen since its birth created so much excitement on 31 December 2020. It was whisked away and is being brought up behind high walls; enthusiastic reports have been issued from time to time about its progress and potential, but suddenly everything went ominously quiet. Could something have happened to the baby on whom so many hopes rest?
Nobody said it would be easy
To be fair, nobody ever said it would be easy to raise this child to adulthood. At the very start, chief minister Fabian Picardo was quick to tell Gibraltar’s parliament that it was “only an agreement to try to reach an agreement … the opportunity but not the certainty” of a treaty. There was a long way to go, he said, until it could even be considered likely.
But four years is a long time, even allowing for the Covid pandemic which put everything on hold.
Every round of talks increased the excitement: First tooth! Crawling! Walking! Growing up fast! By last October, most people were expecting a young treaty to be proudly introduced to the public. Since then, however, there have been signs of parental discord, with each side saying that all the others have to do is agree with them about the way forward. There was speculation that the treaty had been renamed stalemate.
A wobbly status quo
Dr Joseph Garcia, Gibraltar’s deputy chief minister, recently told a group of UK MPs that the status quo is not an option in the context of the future relationship with the EU. There will either be a treaty or there will be a non-negotiated outcome, and either will involve considerable changes to Gibraltar’s relations with the EU and Spain, he said. Nothing can remain the same.
In other words, the bridging measures which have been in effect during the negotiating period cannot go on forever. In fact, the status quo has been a bit wobbly at times, with some measures being withdrawn by the Spanish government and Gibraltarians occasionally subjected to stricter border checks despite an agreement that they would be exempt.
One example is the so-called ‘rogue inspector’ from La Línea, a police officer who twice ordered border guards to stamp all passports, claiming that the interim measures contravened the Schengen code and his officers were being forced to act illegally.
Gibraltar immediately reciprocated, refusing to accept ID cards and insisting that all Spanish nationals needed passports to cross the border. It was chaos for a few hours, until the inspector was over-ruled by his superiors and the status quo was restored, but it was a reminder of how difficult things at the border could be if young treaty doesn’t survive.
Weathering the storms
On 18 March, at a press conference to mark five years since the Covid lockdown, Picardo said Gibraltar had once again demonstrated its ability to weather even the worst storms.
“Five years later, we have shown the depth of our resilience. Our economy has not only recovered. It has flourished and now surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Gibraltar is again safe, prosperous and free. All of our liberties have been restored. We have Unlocked The Rock.”
So lessons have been learned and it appears that Gibraltar can now draw a line under the Covid pandemic, but unfortunately the same cannot be said about Brexit and its dire effects on this community which voted 95.9% to remain in the EU.
Brexit: an unresolved running sore
“Challenges continue to face us”, the chief minister said. “Brexit remains an unresolved, running sore. But we will make use once again of our resilience. We will tap into our community spirit. We will once again no doubt show our resourcefulness. And, like Gibraltarians do in every crisis, we will turn it into another success.”
What does that enigmatic message mean for the treaty? Is it ailing? Can it recover? Maybe it’s just a slow developer? Or has it been kidnapped and held to ransom, to try to persuade Gibraltar to agree to something unpalatable in order to save its life?
Last week, in London for more treaty talks, Picardo and Garcia unexpectedly extended their stay. It is very possible that an announcement is imminent, but few would be brave enough to bet on what it will be. Whichever way it goes, challenges will lie ahead as Gibraltar adapts to a new reality. Will the running sore of Brexit be healed, or continue to inflict pain? We may be about to find out.
