Iran’s clerical regime has long viewed Syria as a cornerstone of its regional strategy, framing it as essential to its geopolitical ambitions. However, what was once seen as ‘strategic depth’ has become a strategic defeat, exposing the fragility of Tehran’s expansionist policies.
Syria’s role in Iran’s strategy
After the Iraq war, the US handover of Iraq to Iran on a ‘golden tray’ gave Tehran unprecedented access to the Eastern Mediterranean through Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. This corridor enabled Iran to strengthen Hezbollah, transforming it into one of the region’s most destructive proxy organisations. By establishing a foothold in the Eastern Mediterranean, Iran sought to counterbalance regional rivals like Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Vital ally Syria allowed Iran to extend its influence and solidify its regional role. Between 2011 and 2020, Iran reportedly spent $50bn propping up the Syrian regime—funds diverted from domestic needs, exacerbating economic hardships for Iranian citizens. Despite these costs, Tehran deemed the investment essential for its geopolitical ambitions and for enabling Hezbollah to carry out destabilising activities across the region.
The 7 October attack: a desperate diversion
Iran’s involvement in the 7 October attack highlights its desperation to deflect attention from internal crises. By diverting internal tensions into a conflict between Muslims and Jews abroad, Tehran aimed to distract from domestic unrest and avert potential uprisings.
From the very beginning, Maryam Rajavi, president-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, identified Tehran as the epicentre of terrorism and warmongering, declaring that “the head of the snake lies in Tehran”. While the regime initially denied any involvement, its role became increasingly evident as the conflict unfolded.
Strategic collapse and the domino effect
The aftermath of the attack triggered a domino effect, pulling Iran and its proxies deeper into conflict. Hezbollah suffered severe setbacks, and Bashar al-Assad’s regime collapsed. Decades of Iran’s political, military, and financial investments in Syria have unravelled, leaving its proxies weakened and Tehran’s vulnerabilities fully exposed.
The collapse of Assad’s regime may inspire similar groups in Iraq to challenge Iran’s dominance.
Within Iran, the regime’s decline has profoundly impacted the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Their suppressive machinery relied heavily on the perception of the regime’s strength abroad, with control over four key capitals: Damascus, Beirut, Baghdad, and Sanaa. This regional dominance gave the IRGC confidence in the regime’s stability, allowing them to suppress dissent without fear of consequences. However, the regime’s strategic defeat in the region has demoralised them, forcing them to reconsider their actions as they now face the possibility of a similar fate.
Khamenei attempts to seize the narrative
Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei spoke yesterday, 11 December, claiming that despite Tehran’s woes, the regime will overcome this setback and remain on course. He lashed out at those covering the ordeal, claiming that media outlets are “intent on demoralizing the people”. His speech, which was not broadcast on state television, aimed to diminish the involvement of the Syrian people in Assad’s collapse, as Khamenei instead alluded to evidence of a joint American-Zionist involvement.
Resistance on the rise
The Iranian Resistance has long argued that the regime’s power rests on two pillars: internal suppression and the export of terrorism. With one pillar collapsing, the regime faces an existential threat.
The loss of the regime’s strategic depth would embolden the Iranian people, who view its growing vulnerabilities as a sign of fragility. This newfound hope could break the atmosphere of fear and suppression, paving the way for further uprisings. Combined with an organised resistance movement actively operating on the ground, this poses a serious threat to the regime. MEK-affiliated resistance units have intensified their campaigns, mobilising dissent through bold acts of defiance across major cities and towns. Backed by a population eager for change, these units have become a formidable force against the regime.
A call for decisive action against Iran’s regime
Iran’s regional collapse marks a pivotal moment for decisive international action. The clerical regime is crumbling under the weight of failed policies, domestic unrest, and regional setbacks. The loss of Syria, the crippling blows to Hezbollah and other proxies, and the rise of internal resistance highlight Tehran’s growing fragility.
It is time to end appeasement towards Tehran and stand with the Iranian people. Designating the IRGC as a terrorist organisation is a critical step in countering the regime’s oppressive machinery and regional destabilisation efforts.
The West must also recognise the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) as the legitimate alternative to the religious dictatorship and express support for the NCRI and its president-elect, Maryam Rajavi.
This approach is the right path forward in achieving a free, democratic Iran. It will also foster peace and stability in the region and contribute to global security.
As Rajavi put it in her statement after Assad’s government was overthrown: the ‘strategic depth’ of the religious dictatorship in Iran has collapsed and it must be expelled from all countries in the region. The expulsion of the Velayat-e Faqih regime from Iraq and other regional countries has been a long-standing demand of the Iranian Resistance, and this is the prelude to the liberation of the Iranian people from religious fascism.
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