President Trump claims to have achieved more in his first 100 hours back in office than his predecessor did in his first 100 days in the Oval Office. But when it comes to public opinion about President Trump on this side of the ‘pond’, feelings appear to be decidedly mixed.
Trump’s return to the US White House is, says a new poll, widely seen in the world at large as a “good thing” for peace in the world, American influence, and dialogue between leading powers. However, this feeling is not shared by some of Washington’s closest allies, including citizens from the United Kingdom and the EU.
The exhaustive study reveals that America’s European allies are “nervous” about Trump 2.0 – and doubt it will bring positive change.
UK and EU sceptical over Trump’s claim to end conflicts
The study says that in the UK and countries of the EU – all of which are key allies of the US – there is “scepticism” that a Trump presidency will make any difference to the situation in Ukraine or the Middle East.
Of course, President Trump said before the US election that the war could be ended on the first day he was back in office. So far, there is no sign of an end to the bitter conflict and just 24% in the UK and 34% in the EU (average result across the 11 EU countries polled) believe Trump’s return would make achieving peace in Ukraine more likely, while even fewer people (16% in the UK, 25% in the EU) believe he will make it more likely to achieve peace in the Middle East.
With American public opinion as divided as it is, respondents were even asked whether they thought a civil war was likely in the next 20 years in the United States itself. However, in the UK, just some 27% actually thought this was likely, while 55% said it was unlikely.
UK doubts whether Trump will even be good for America
When asked, “Do you think the election of Donald Trump as US president is a good or a bad thing for American citizens”, 24% of UK respondents said it was a good thing but some 53% said it was bad.
Another question was: “Do you think the US will have more or less global influence over the next decade, as compared to today, or will its influence remain unchanged?” On this, 29% in the UK said the US will have much more or somewhat more; 43% said there will be no change – i.e. a continuation of its existing global influence – while some 29% predict Trump’s America will have much less or somewhat less global influence under his presidency.
Those polled were also asked: “Looking ahead, how likely do you think it is that in the next 20 years China will be the strongest power in the world – stronger than the United States?” Some 52% of those in the UK said this was likely.
The pollsters also asked: “Generally speaking, do you think reducing the tensions between the United States and China will be more or less likely now that Trump is US president, or will it make no difference?” In the UK, only 15% said this was more likely while 43% thought it less likely.
“Never Trump”: a European view not shared globally
According to the poll, just one in five in the EU (22%) say they now view the US as an ally. This is down significantly from two years ago (31%).
But the European view of Trump’s return stands in stark contrast to attitudes in other parts of the world. While, as the pollsters put it, the UK and EU have a concentration of “Never Trumpers” in their populations (50% in the UK), countries such as India, Saudi Arabia and South Africa contain high proportions of “Trump Welcomers”. In the case of India, for example, 85% of respondents regard Trump’s election as good for America, 84% as a good for India, and 82% as good for world peace.
Interestingly, however, the poll reveals that, despite these differences in attitudes to Trump, the EU itself is held in high regard across the world – with many seeing growth in the bloc’s influence. Majorities in India (62%), South Africa (60%), Brazil (58%), and Saudi Arabia (51%), and pluralities in Ukraine (49%), Türkiye (48%), China (44%), Indonesia (42%) and the US (38%) believe the EU will wield more influence globally in the coming decade.
The 27-strong bloc is also widely seen as an ally or ‘necessary partner’ by respondents of the countries surveyed. This view is most pronounced in Ukraine (93% ally or partner, vs. 4% rival or adversary) and the United States (76% ally or partner, vs. 9% rival or adversary). But it’s also a majority view everywhere else – except for Russia.
Europe alone in a Trumpian world but not without power
The study’s co-author, historian Timothy Garton Ash, said: “Europe may stand almost alone in a Trumpian world, but this doesn’t mean we Europeans are powerless to act.”
“There are opportunities in this new, transactional space for alliances and influence. Indeed, the very fact that the EU is held in such high regard by people in so many countries and is even expected to grow in strength in the coming decade, should give leaders hope that there is room for a strong and independent-minded Europe in the world”, added Garton Ash, professor of European Studies emeritus at the University of Oxford.
His co-author and chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies, Ivan Krastev, said:
“Europe is quite lonely in its anxiety about Trump’s return to the White House. While many Europeans view the president-elect as a disrupter, others, elsewhere in the world, see him as a peacemaker. This position leaves Europe at a crossroads in its relations with the new American administration.”
No ‘quick deal’ on Ukraine – Europe must stand strong
Their comments are partly echoed by a centre right MEP David McAllister, chair of the European parliament’s influential foreign affairs committee, who told Yorkshire Bylines the Russian “war of aggression” against Ukraine “further underscores the need for a stronger Europe”.
McAllister, a veteran German MEP, said, “Mr Trump has often spoken of a ‘quick deal’ to resolve Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. The question remains: what would such a deal look like?”
He goes on, “If Ukraine’s sovereignty were compromised, thereby strengthening Russia, it would be a catastrophe for Ukraine and a significant strategic mistake with far-reaching consequences for Europe and the world. A dictated peace favouring Russia must not be allowed. Europe must be prepared to provide advanced weapons systems, financial assistance, and robust security guarantees to Kyiv. Supporting Ukraine’s defence and its path toward EU membership is both a moral obligation and a strategic necessity for us”.
The study was carried out by European Council on Foreign Relations, a respected Berlin-based think tank. The report is based on a public opinion poll of adult populations (aged 18 and over) conducted in November 2024 in 16 European countries (Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Spain, Switzerland, Türkiye, Ukraine and the United Kingdom), and eight non-European countries (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea and the United States).
The total number of respondents was 28,549.
In Russia, Türkiye and all countries outside Europe the polls were conducted by Gallup International Association through a network of independent local partners and cross-country panel operators as an online survey.
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