“Ebrahim Raisi’s death deals a monumental, strategic blow to Khamenei, triggering a series of repercussions, crises within theocratic tyranny that spurs rebellious youth into action.”
Maryam Rajavi
On Sunday 19 May 2024, President of Iran Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Amir Hossein Abdollahian died in a helicopter crash in northwest Iran. The loss of Raisi represents a significant blow to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and will destabilise the regime. Raisi’s death occurs at a time when the Iranian regime is already struggling with numerous internal and external crises, further exacerbating its vulnerabilities.
Who was Ebrahim Raisi
Raisi’s notoriety stems from his involvement in the 1988 massacre of political prisoners, a dark chapter in Iran’s history. In the summer of 1988, a fatwa by then-Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini led to the execution of 30,000 political prisoners, most affiliated with the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK/PMOI). Raisi was part of the four-member Death Commission responsible for these executions. Raisi was known as the ‘Butcher of Tehran’. Professor Javaid Rehman, the UN special rapporteur for human rights in Iran, had repeatedly called for investigations into Raisi’s crimes, urging justice for the victims.
In 2017, the regime’s supreme leader, Khamenei, attempted to appoint Raisi as president, but his notorious past thwarted his campaign. The then-incumbent president, Hassan Rouhani, highlighted Raisi’s brutal history, stating he knew nothing but running prisons and executing people. Despite losing the 2017 election, Raisi was appointed head of the judiciary in 2019, positioning him for future political roles. In this capacity, he played a pivotal role in the suppression of the 2019 protests, which saw over 1,500 demonstrators killed.
Appointed on a record of known brutality
Despite his notorious record, Khamenei’s calculated risk in elevating Raisi to the presidency in 2021 aimed to create a monolithic power structure capable of withstanding both internal and external pressures. Raisi was seen as the ideal candidate to eliminate dissenters and ensure absolute obedience to Khamenei’s vision, including his aggressive foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East, which involved meddling in other nations’ internal affairs through proxy groups.
Raisi’s appointment as president was met with significant international outcry. National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) and independent human rights organisations launched campaigns to expose his role in crimes against humanity. Amnesty International said that “Ebrahim Raisi has risen to the presidency instead of being investigated for the crimes against humanity of murder, enforced disappearance and torture, is a grim reminder that impunity reigns supreme in Iran”.
Raisi’s fear of arrest and prosecution led to the cancellation of several international trips, underscoring the global condemnation of his actions.
Foreign minister, Abdollahian, also killed in the crash, was another key player in the regime’s regional strategy. Known for his close ties to Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Abdollahian played a vital role in Iran’s regional policies and its support for various militant groups.
Abdollahian’s diplomatic efforts often focused on bolstering these groups, securing arms deals, and providing logistical support, all while presenting a facade of legitimate diplomacy on the international stage. In short, he consolidated the IRGC’s influence over the regime’s foreign policy.
Khamenei and his regime are the strategic losers of Raisi’s death. The regime now faces the challenge of finding a suitable replacement who can command the same level of obedience and ruthlessness as Raisi while also managing the intensified discontent among the Iranian people.
Who is Mohammad Mokhber, Interim President
Mohammad Mokhber, Raisi’s vice president, has a significant and controversial background. He has held various positions within the Iranian regime, including roles in the IRGC. Mokhber has been instrumental in tightening censorship and control over foreign media operating within Iran.
In April, he announced new regulations stipulating that any media activities undertaken by foreign groups within Iran must be approved by the Ministry of Intelligence and the IRGC. Mokhtar’s close ties with the IRGC and the Quds Force, the regime’s extraterritorial military arm, facilitated the regime’s support for militant groups in the region and its meddling in the affairs of other countries under Raisi’s administration.
Mokhtar was sanctioned by the European Union in 2010 for his role in acquiring materials for Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. In 2021, Mokhber faced further scrutiny when the United States blacklisted him for financing projects aimed at suppressing dissent.
After Raisi: what next for Iran?
Raisi’s death shakes the foundations of Khamenei’s regime. As Khamenei navigates this crisis, he must rebuild and realign the system he assembled through Raisi. According to Article 131 of the Iranian constitution, “the first vice president assumes the powers and responsibilities with the approval of the leadership, and a council consisting of the speaker of the parliament, the head of the judiciary, and the first vice president is obliged to arrange for a new president to be elected within a maximum period of 50 days”.
This process will intensify internal feuding at the top of the regime and set the stage for a fierce power struggle among the regime’s top ranks, providing opportunities for public protests and uprisings. This situation is precisely what Khamenei has tried to avoid for years by engineering elections and eliminating his closest allies. The Iranian people will find renewed hope and motivation to take to the streets and challenge Khamenei’s theocratic tyranny.
Maryam Rajavi, the president-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, in response to Raisi’s death, described it as an irreparable strategic blow to Khamenei and the regime, notorious for its executions and massacres. She emphasised that this event could ignite a series of crises within the theocratic system, mobilising rebellious youths and opposition groups into action.
