Just over a week after taking office as Canada’s new prime minister, Mark Carney called a federal election for 28 April. He succeeded Justin Trudeau after almost a decade in the job, following his landslide victory in the Liberal Party leadership election earlier this month.
It’s not like he isn’t used to steering economies through a crisis or two – he led the Bank of Canada through the 2008 financial crisis and the Bank of England through the uncertainties of Brexit negotiations and the start of the pandemic. And as Trump’s unprecedented 25% tariffs on a swathe of goods and threats to make Canada the ‘51st state’ bear down on them, members of the ruling party saw him as the best candidate to continue the fight against it.
Carney won 85.9% of the allocated points in the leadership election, trouncing his three rivals – former finance minister Chrystia Freeland came second after winning 8%, former Government House Leader Karina Gould was third with 3.2% and ex-MP Frank Baylis won 3%.
His campaign pledged to get the Canadian economy ‘back on track’, but also to scrap several unpopular policies championed by his predecessor. Most notably, his first action was to axe the consumer carbon pricing programme, though an industrial carbon tax has been kept in force.
Facing an existential threat
Trump’s tariffs have completely upended Canadian political discourse in recent weeks. Leaders of all major parties decried the move, with then-PM Trudeau saying, in a speech on 4 March, that they were intended to cause “a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that will make it easier to annex us”.
They target US$253bn (£194.7bn) on Canadian imports to the US, with a threat of adding 50% tariffs on steel and aluminium announced but then quickly walked back. Canada has imposed retaliatory tariffs totalling to almost C$60bn (£32.2bn) on American goods, from precious metals to sleeping bags.
But a bigger problem overshadows this all – the repeated calls by the US President to annex the country, claiming Canadians will have lower prices and better healthcare if they united with their southern neighbour.
His ally Elon Musk’s claim that Canada “isn’t even a real country” also bears an unsettling resemblance to how Vladimir Putin spoke of Ukraine before Russia’s unprovoked invasion in 2022.
Katie Pruszynski, a PhD researcher in politics at the University of Sheffield, told Yorkshire Bylines that Carney has fiercely defended Canada’s sovereignty and those who knew him at the Bank of England recall his own imperious leadership. She explained:
“Carney promises to sit down with Trump under ‘conditions of respect’. Trump would do well to pay attention to Carney’s choice of words.
“The health of the Canadian economy may very well depend on how Carney’s heavyweight intellect can stand up to Trump’s capricious and vexatious whims.”
An electoral reset
Liberals hope Carney can breathe new life into their administration at a time when electoral jitters are starting to creep in. The Liberals have long been trailing the opposition Conservative Party, led by populist firebrand Pierre Poilievre. But in the wake of Trump’s rhetoric, the party has seen a rapid resurgence after years of a Tory majority in the next election being all but certain – a poll on 22 March saw the Liberals ahead by two points. The new PM seems to be taking advantage of this boost by calling the election now, instead of waiting until the term expires in October.
Pruszynski further explained, “[Carney’s] economic leadership experience, and his profoundly international outlook, is clearly appealing to large swathes of the Canadian electorate.
“His liberal globalism is already giving an indication of how his leadership may pan out. He has talked about strengthening ties with the EU and prioritising the fight against climate change. Canada’s allies in Europe and beyond will be relieved to hear they still have at least one reliable North American partner.
“But he is a political rookie and no wheeler dealer like his American counterpart.”
She also warned that Carney’s political future will rest on him walking the tightrope between publicly standing up to Trump and limiting the damage to the Canadian consumer from the increasing economic animus between Canada and the US.
Building new bridges
This all results in an unprecedented situation that the new government must navigate.
Dr Matthew Bishop, senior lecturer in international politics at the University of Sheffield, believes Carney’s arrival will have three very clear effects.
“First, Carney will bring – and, perhaps more importantly, be perceived to bring – a huge amount of economic experience to a job that suddenly requires deft technical as well as political manoeuvring in a distinctly unstable trade environment.
“This will help to provide a degree of confidence in a context where it is in short supply and much needed if a whole series of cascading crises do not become systemic.
“Second, particularly given his history as a notably gifted central banker in both Canada and the UK, we are going to see an implicit repositioning of Canada towards a more ‘European’ posture, especially given the threats of annexation and so on by Trump.
“Third, in some ways the most remarkable achievement of the Canadian Liberals is to have had this swift and relatively painless transition of power from a PM who was waning in popularity after a long period in office to one that is older, hugely experienced, and has in many ways re-energised their political fortunes.
“Overall, we keep hearing that the centre-left is struggling, but it strikes me that in some places it’s actually doing okay and in others (ie the US Democrats and their counterparts in Germany and Spain) there might be lessons to be learned here.”
With the election say now set, Carney and the Liberal Party have to hope that their rebound continues up until polling day.
CLICK HERE TO DONATE TO OUR CROWDFUNDER
HELP US BECOME STRONGER SO THAT WE CAN CONTINUE TO DELIVER POWERFUL CITIZEN JOURNALISM!
