The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) predicted today that 2025 would finish as the second or third warmest year on record.
They stated:
“2025 is virtually certain to finish as the second- or third-warmest year on record, possibly tied with 2023, the current second-warmest year, and behind 2024, the warmest year on record”.
The C3S, implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts on behalf of the European Commission with funding from the EU, also gave tracking information of surface air temperature, sea surface temperatures and data regarding sea ice.
Most of their reported findings are based on the ERA5 reanalysis dataset, which uses billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world.
Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate, commented: “We are now in the decade where the 1.5°C limit is likely to be exceeded, highlighting the accelerating pace of climate change and the urgent need for action. October 2025 was the third-warmest October on record globally, and while 2025 may not be the hottest year, it is almost certain to rank in the top three. The last three years saw exceptional temperatures, and the average for 2023–2025 is likely to exceed 1.5°C, the first time for a three-year period.”
Breaching the Paris agreement
The update from Copernicus also noted that the 1.5℃ global target agreed in Paris could be breached almost a decade earlier than thought.
“When the Paris Agreement was signed, in December 2015, the world was projected to reach the 1.5°C threshold by March 2045. Today, on the 8th anniversary of its signature, we risk breaching that benchmark by February 2034, according to data extrapolation based on Copernicus Climate Change Service data”
Monthly global surface air anomalies also indicate that temperatures that records are significantly warmer than previous benchmarks and are heading in one direction only.
“This update notes that October 2025 was the third-warmest October globally, with an average surface air temperature of 15.14°C, 0.70°C above the 1991-2020 average for October, according to the ERA5 dataset.”
Can COP30 finally force countries to act?
The 30th Conference of the Parties starts next week in Belém, Brazil, with António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations calling for a drastic acceleration in global commitments on climate ambition and action.
“COP30 must mark the start of a decade of acceleration – and deliver a clear plan to close the gaps on ambition, adaptation, and finance.”
His statement continued in his typically frank style,
“The direction of travel is now clear. Continuing to invest in fossil fuels is a dead end. But the task before us remains immense. We are far from closing the emissions gap; far from getting on track for a 1.5-degree future; far from protecting vulnerable communities from climate catastrophe.
“The science is clear; the economics are compelling; and the moral case is undeniable.”
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the president of Brazil, proclaimed this COP, the ‘COP of truth’, telling The Guardian, “The era of fine speeches and good intentions is over. Brazil’s COP30 will be about action.”
Lula highlighted that global cooperation has helped solve issues before and can do so again with the climate crisis.
“Humanity has shown its ability to overcome great challenges when it acts together and is guided by science. We protected the ozone layer. The global response to the Covid-19 pandemic proved that the world can act decisively when there is courage and political will.”
The update from Copernicus with 2025 being virtually certain to be the second or third warmest year on record, indicates that climate action and adaptation is desperately needed from countries around the world. Putting too much hope in the words of politicians, rather than their actions, may lead us all astray.
