Respected agencies, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), tell us we can expect rising global temperatures and sea levels. General conclusions are grounded in extensive and reputable scientific research, and are now beyond dispute. However, for many people, they can feel like distant or theoretical concerns and don’t truly hit home how the climate emergency will change the lives of people living in Yorkshire today.
What does another half-degree of warming, or half a metre of sea level rise, really mean to someone just getting by with a factory job in Hull? For many, abstract concepts like radiative forcing or biodiversity are meaningless. Others might even see a few degrees of warming as beneficial, imagining Bridlington as warm as Benidorm.
Societal collapse
The United Nations has suggested that climate change could result in societal collapse, while many respected organisations have discussed very large reductions in the human population. A Massachusetts Institute of Technology report predicted that collapse would start in the 2040s. Already, a large majority in Europe believe that “civilisation as we know it will collapse in coming years”. Over half of young people across Europe agree that “humanity is doomed”.
Many people accept that our unsustainable way of life must end, but it is hard to imagine the path from the here and now to a brutal world without many of the civilisation gains made over centuries.
Relating climate projections to human experience
Models can predict global temperatures in 2100, but it is the far more difficult to predict how climate change will affect people. Extreme periods of hot, cold or wet; can all have catastrophic effects, even though lasting only hours or days. Changes in people’s lives are often triggered by extreme events, such as floods, but they are unpredictable. Average global temperature projections are important, but only suggest whether extremes are more or less likely.
Human responses often make things worse. Hoarding of food or energy can make a scarcity worse. A privileged few can take drastic measures to protect their access to resources, even if they harm the many. This is true at a national and an individual level.
The step-changes that occur with extremes, like a forest before and after a fire, are made more likely as the climate heats; but it is impossible to predict a timeline of associated societal changes. The complexities of human responses, their shifting competitions and alliances, greatly increase this uncertainty.
Increasing extremes
So far, the impacts of climate change in Yorkshire have been relatively mild, but they are already beginning to touch people’s lives. We can extrapolate into the near future where longer, and more intense, hot-dry and cold-wet periods will occur driving crises. Flooding from the rivers and sea is already common and will become more frequent, more extreme, and occur in more places. With rising sea levels, accelerated coastal erosion will lead to many people losing their homes and businesses closing. Whole villages are at risk of being lost to the sea along the east coast. Wildfires both urban and rural, will destroy homes and blacken the countryside. These weather extremes will cause land degradation, biodiversity loss, harm crops and damage infrastructure.
Some people will be affected directly by these disasters, losing their lives, homes, savings and livelihoods. Everybody will be affected by the stress and financial pressures. The costs of mitigating climate change and responding to crises, will be passed on through taxes, insurance and the price of commodities. Increasing hot-dry periods will require more reservoirs to ensure the water supply. Ground shrinkage will break underground cables and pipes. Road surfaces and railway tracks will need replacement. Wet periods will lead to flooding, erosion, land slips and bridge damage. Sea level rise makes it impossible to maintain almost 2,000 km of UK coastal flood defences beyond 2050 and around 150,000 properties will face serious risk of sea flooding, many in London and Hull.
All these costs will increase taxes and add to the price of water, travel, energy and communications. Many costs will be passed on through the price of insurance. For serious risks, buildings insurance will be unaffordable or unobtainable. Families and business owners will be financially ruined by the inevitable disasters.
Immigration and global displacement
Climate change effects in the temperate UK will lag behind those in the tropics but the indirect effects will be significant.
By 2100, about two billion people will be displaced by sea level rise, extreme weather, resource depletion and war. Many of these people will come from Commonwealth countries with strong family links to the UK. Countries like Nigeria, Kenya, Bangladesh, and Malaysia will expect refuge and support from the UK. About 400 million people live within the tropical zones of Africa and are likely to be displaced northwards, seeking refuge in Europe and the UK. Even a small proportion of these displaced people arriving in the UK would number in the tens of millions. In response, immigration policies across Europe and the UK will become increasingly restrictive and hostile. Southern European countries will fortify the Mediterranean while northern Europe resists responsibility for the refugees that make it into the EU.
The political and social climate will likely sour with nations building border barriers, the Schengen agreement may collapse and nations will leave the EU. Refugees will place enormous pressures on welfare systems and will fuel the growth of far-right politics. Tensions between countries could lead to war in Europe and occupation of North Africa to try and reduce the movement of displaced people.
Managing refugees, greater border controls, and increased military spending, will all be financial burdens passed on to the public purse, at a time when right-wing governments base their reputations on cutting taxes. The UK welfare and health systems will not survive the movement of climate refugees. Increasingly authoritarian governments will steeply increase stealth taxes while reducing public services, leading to the growth of dark economies and nations disintegrating into separate autonomous communities.
Food security and the cost of living
The UK currently imports about half the food we eat and over half of our animal feed. A global food crisis, exacerbated by climate change, will make it increasingly difficult for people in the UK to afford basic staples. We have already experienced high food price inflation, linked to global energy costs. However, climate-related reductions in crop yields have also contributed. Very hot, dry Mediterranean summers have caused steep increases in the prices of olive oil, fruit and vegetables, accounting for about a third of UK food price inflation. Climate change has also reduced the global yield of staple crops such as rice, soybeans, corn, and potatoes. Supply of seafood, particularly from tropical fisheries, will decline sharply due to higher water temperatures and acidification. The UK will face a steep rise in the cost of imported goods and local agriculture will struggle to meet demand.
Already, over seven million people experience food poverty in the UK. As the price of food soars, many Britons will face severe financial pressures. A move to more plant-based diets, and switching from animal farming to horticulture, will ease pressures for a while. However, hyperinflation in food prices is inevitable. People will go to extreme lengths to feed their children. Cost of living riots and looting will likely become commonplace, leading to spiralling violence and demand for weapons. Rural areas with food supplies will become vulnerable to those who have no such access. As this happens, central government and societal norms become increasingly irrelevant.
Yorkshire in the year 2100
The crossing of major climate tipping points will inevitably lead to the collapse of society and the premature death of very large numbers of people. Yorkshire should be able to support a population in small, self-sufficient communities, relying on renewable energy and growing hardy crops. People’s primary concerns would be growing enough food to survive, protecting what they have from other groups, and staying healthy.
Humans have caused this climate emergency. Climate vandalism has been turbocharged by the myths underpinning neoliberal economics: endless economic growth, the repeatedly disproven trickle-down theory, broken market forces and the pre-eminence of the nation state. To mitigate climate catastrophe, all these myths need to be publicly repudiated. However, this is extremely unlikely as the rich and powerful rely on their widespread acceptance to maintain their privilege. If society continues on this path, it will lead to the deaths of a significant proportion of the current population.
In the event that this becomes a reality, we can start again, with a critically damaged planet, and invaluable store of knowledge, but without the infrastructure or systems to utilise much of it. There is hope that we learn from our experience and build a more sustainable, saner, cooperative and resilient future. That we finally nurture the planet that has done so for us. But, human nature has been determined by a hundred thousand generations of natural selection, so this may be wildly optimistic.
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