With 2024 likely to be recorded globally as the hottest year on record, and extreme weather events around the world becoming more frequent owing to human caused climate change, the remaining years of this decisive decade could prove to be pivotal in the fight to reduce human environmental suffering.
The secretary general of the UN, António Guterres, posted a reflective message: “The top 10 hottest years on record have happened in the last 10 years, including 2024. This is climate breakdown in real time. We must exit this road to ruin – and we have no time to lose. In 2025, countries must put the world on a safer path by dramatically slashing emissions and supporting the transition to a renewable future.”
As 2024 drew to a close and 2025 begins, we approached climate scientists from around the globe to ask them about their climate hopes and fears for the coming year.
Climate hopes
Dr Rob Larter, marine geophysicist working at British Antarctic Survey, told Yorkshire Bylines: “The shoots of progress that come to mind are limited. One would be that the pace at which renewable energy generation is growing continues to outstrip predictions, largely driven now by economics rather than inducements. Another would be that China’s emissions may have peaked several years earlier than was expected. However, despite these encouraging developments, overall global emissions continue along a plateau rather than starting on the steep downward trend that is required to avoid dangerous climate change.”
Professor Michael Mann, presidential distinguished professor at the University of Pennsylvania, also highlighted the emergence of China as a global climate leader, especially with Donald Trump returning to the presidency in America: “One big story, from my standpoint, will be China. Do they assert global leadership on climate as the US disengages under Trump and Republicans? This could be the key determinant of near-term progress on climate, in my view.”
Climate fears
Professor Bill McGuire, emeritus professor of geophysical and climate hazards at University College London, was typically forthright in his comments:
“Following the hottest year on record, we once again enter new territory in 2025. Whether or not the global average temperature rise drops below 1.5C again in the next 12 months, it will not be many years before it is permanently above this level. Effectively – as the catastrophic Valencia floods and the devastation of the tiny Indian Ocean island of Mayotte testify – dangerous, all-pervasive, climate breakdown is already here, and will only get worse.
“This year will see more supercharged extreme weather, the expansion of fossil fuel exploration and exploitation, no meaningful change in emissions, and will be topped off by yet another ineffectual COP, this time in Brazil. The truth is, we will be in deeper sh*t at the end of 2025 than at its beginning.”
Climate stories to watch out for
When considering the environmental ‘known knowns’ and the ‘known unknowns’, Dr Larter suggested that there were several areas around the world that warranted closer investigation.
Arctic and Antarctic sea ice
“Climate events to look out for include the possibility of a new record low in Arctic sea ice extent next summer, given that the extent is currently at a record low for the date as it approaches the winter maximum.
“In contrast, the early summer decline in Antarctic sea ice extent has been surprisingly slow since briefly setting a new low for the date in early November. However, given the record low minimum extent in February 2023 was nearly matched by the minimum earlier this year, a larger than normal proportion of what remains must be first year ice. This means there is still the potential for a steep decline before the annual minimum is reached in February 2025. This is still one to watch.”
The Thwaites Eastern Ice shelf
“In my own area of research, the final demise of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf is getting nearer. A new shear zone cutting diagonally across the ice shelf developed several years ago, resulting in the main part of the ice shelf becoming mechanically disconnected from the part at its seaward edge that is pinned on a seabed ridge.
“The main part of the ice shelf is accelerating towards the northeast and will ultimately break up and drift away leaving the pinned part stranded as a temporary ice island. Exactly when the final breakup will occur is difficult to predict, but it could even be during the next few months.”
AMOC shutdown and collapse
Dr Larter referenced Professor Stefan Rahmstorf’s lecture on the possibility of the AMOC (Atlantic meridional overturning circulation) shutdown, as another ominous sign of climate collapse, especially as a threat to Europe:
“I have become concerned we could be a lot nearer to this tipping point that many previously thought. It is not my area of expertise, but I hear that some of the latest, most advanced ocean models, indicate a significant probability that shutdown could be triggered within the next few decades. Furthermore, there may be no clear indication that we are passing the tipping point until it is too late.”
Sea surface temperatures
Finally, Dr Larter emphasised that anomalous sea surface temperatures, reported on by Yorkshire Bylines in 2023, could result in potentially more extreme weather events.
“The sea surface across almost all of the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean remains anomalously warm, which will lead to increased evaporation and warm the air above these areas, enabling it to carry more water vapour. This sets up the potential for further extreme rain and snowfall events across Europe as we go forwards in 2025.”
Climate action
In the face of these global climate events, it can be difficult to see what individuals can do to help mitigate against the risks, but Professor Mann stressed that positive local action should never be minimised. Hecommented that local climate action can sometimes be overlooked and overshadowed by a national narrative. He suggested that more media attention could be spent on local projects that generate positive progress.
“We need to be paying more attention to the progress taking place at the local and state level in the US, and at the international level. It will be all too easy to become preoccupied by the intransigence of the US federal government in the years ahead. We need to focus on making progress where we can, with the expectation that we will encounter a more favourable political environment for US governmental action at some point in the future.”
Zachary Labe, a research scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, also focused on grassroots action and education, when he told Yorkshire Bylines:
“My hope is that we continue to see an interest by younger generations that are excited and inspired by science and for the realisation that they too can make a difference in discovering new things about our incredible planet.”
Looking forward to 2025, Dr Alexandra Jahn, of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of Colorado,said:
“For 2025, I think we need to work to set stronger emission reduction targets and re-commit to meeting them, to reduce the magnitude of climate change and its impacts in the next few decades. Over the past few months, we have seen a delayed freeze up of the Arctic sea ice, which is exactly what we see in climate models as we approach an ice-free Arctic. Any cuts to emissions will reduce the impacts of climate change, so it’s never too late to reduce emissions, even if we don’t meet the 1.5C Paris protocol target.”
With the global temperature update day from NASA, NOAA, Copernicus ECMWF and the UK Met Office only a few days away, we will see from this annual summary report just how bad 2024 was when compared to global records. Looking ahead slightly to February, the UK’s Climate Change Committee will publish its seventh carbon budget advice to the UK government, which will hopefully chart the climate direction that we need to take in this decisive decade.
