Human-induced climate change made the heavy storm downpours that caused devastating flooding across the UK and Ireland between October 2023 and March 2024 about 20% more intense, according to a rapid attribution study released today.
Scientists from the World Weather Attribution group examined the weather data from the 14 severe storms which hit the UK and Ireland over this six month period, as well as climate models. This period was the second wettest recorded period in the UK and the third wettest in Ireland, with 844.1mm or rain recorded in the UK, with records dating back to 1836.
Storm Babet, Ciaran and Henk were particular storms which caused widespread disruption to properties, infrastructure and agriculture.
The report noted that:
“Farmers in the UK and Ireland experienced huge loss of crops and productivity due to flooding and waterlogged soils during 2023 and 2024. Increasing autumn and winter rainfall highlights the importance of considering how land-use can affect the impacts of heavy rainfall.”
It continued,
“Climate change also had a strong influence on autumn and winter total rainfall that led to major agricultural impacts. The scientists estimate that climate change contributed to increasing the amount of total rainfall by about 15%. If warming reaches 2°C, similar periods of rainfall that can saturate soils and cause large agricultural losses, will become much more common, expected to occur about once every 13 years.”
The UK is already experiencing climate change
Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in Climate Science at Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, said:
“To put it bluntly, climate change is already making life shittier.
“Wetter winters are flooding farms, cancelling football matches, and overflowing sewage systems. Groceries are becoming more expensive and Brits holidaying in Europe are having to shelter from record-breaking heatwaves and wildfires.
“Thankfully, we know the solutions – replace oil, gas and coal with cleaner, cheaper renewable sources of energy, insulate homes, restore nature. All this will make life cheaper and better for all, not more expensive.”
Sarah Kew, Researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, said:
“The UK and Ireland face a wetter, damper and mouldier future due to climate change.
“While the influence of climate change on strong storm winds is less clear, autumn and winter rainfall has become much heavier, bringing more damaging and sometimes deadly floods to urban and agricultural areas.
“Until the world reduces emissions to net zero, the climate will continue to warm, and rainfall in the UK and Ireland will continue to get heavier.”
Do we need to create ‘sponge cities’?
Discussions are now turning towards the creation of ‘sponge cities’ – urban areas designed to absorb and hold rainwater, through the use of parks, green spaces and ‘blue spaces’ such as streams and rivers. Several studies have indicated that these ‘sponge cities’ carry the wider benefits of helping with air quality and helping with biodiversity, as well as mitigating against surface flooding.
The recent attribution study notes the emergence of these “nature- based solutions” into city design.
“Comprehensive flood risk management is required in the UK and Ireland that encompasses legislative frameworks, strategic planning, and substantial funding. Major UK cities are starting to integrate nature-based solutions into their designs.”
Flooding has a mental impact as well as a physical impact
Interestingly, the study also explored the impact of repeated flooding on mental health, highlighting that “Those experiencing poor physical or mental health can be disproportionately affected by weather and climate impacts.”
The attribution study further highlighted the importance of cascading impacts, “Successive floods compounded impacts on the agricultural and housing sectors, leading to cascading impacts on socioeconomic and psychosocial health and reducing people’s coping capacity, particularly among low-income groups.”
The report assessed how the mental health costs rose with flood waters, moving from £3,028 to £4,136 per adult when the waters rose to over 1m.
“Storms can lead to extensive mental health impacts due to trauma distress when homes and assets are damaged.”
Once the media moves on from a flood hit zone, the longer term recovery effects, including issues of continued insurance add to the strain.
“Displacement, financial strain, and prolonged uncertainty regarding recovery efforts can also erode social cohesion and exacerbate mental health challenges.”
Disaster management needs to come before a disaster
Adam McKay’s satirical film ‘Don’t Look Up’, offered the response to a looming existential crisis as ‘Sit tight and assess’. and wilful blindness.
With more rain potentially coming down over the next few days across the country and particularly in north Wales, this lack of pre-emptive disaster management could prove to be costly for homeowners, farmers and commuters alike.
With today’s climate of approximately 1.2°C of global warming, the future of the UK is looking decidedly wetter, unless we can drastically reduce carbon emissions, as estimates suggest that by 2100, the global average temperature could be in the range of 2.5°C to 3°C. It is worth remembering that for every 1 degree rise in average temperature, the atmosphere can hold about 7% more moisture.
The wait for climate change to impact the UK is over.
How we respond now, is up to us – whether this is in the form of direct climate action, campaigning, voting in political candidates who prioritise the climate, or creating local community groups.
In the last few days, a noted US meteorologist – Steve MacLaughlin – urged his social media followers to be mindful of the dangers of politicians who urge their supporters to repeat ‘Don’t say climate change’. More so in election years, as this sets the tone for the short term future.
The decision rests with us, as to what future we choose.
