In March 2024 levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere were found to be 4.7ppm (parts per million) higher than in March 2023. This record-breaking figure ties in with the overall increase in atmospheric CO2, which has risen significantly for the past 12 years and is now at 426ppm. Around 40 years ago, the level was just 334ppm, clearly demonstrating the inexorable rise of emissions, mostly due to our burning of fossil fuels.
We have about 75 years to the end of the 21st century and, assuming no drastic action is taken, the global average temperature rise by that stage could well be in the range of 2.5–3℃, creating conditions that would push billions of us outside our safe zone, or humanity’s ‘climate niche’.
It’s worth stepping into this possible long-term future and adding those years to the current ages of your children or younger relatives – where is the guarantee that they will be safe in such a changed world?
Alarm of the next generation
The 22-year-old activist Sophia Kianni, youngest member of the United Nations Secretary General’s Youth Advisory Group on Climate Change, told Yorkshire Bylines:
“The rise in CO2 is undoubtedly alarming, especially as it seems to be slipping out of the news cycle. For us, it represents the urgent need to address climate change more aggressively and prioritize sustainable practices in all sectors.”
She continued, “While the scientific data is troubling, I remain hopeful because my generation is more aware and passionate about environmental issues than ever before. We’re actively pushing for systemic change, advocating for policies that reflect the realities of climate science, and working towards innovative solutions. However, time is of the essence, and it’s crucial that global leaders, corporations, and communities come together to accelerate positive change.”
El Niño in the mix
Understanding that there needs to be a measured response to alarming headlines was also the response of Dr Zack Labe, an atmospheric climate scientist from Princeton University, who told Yorkshire Bylines:
“It is likely that the recent record can be partially attributed to El Niño, so I don’t think it is too helpful to focus on one specific year as a possible change in the rate of CO2 increase.
“However, clearly human activity is still contributing to rising CO2 levels. We know that the longer it takes to reduce these greenhouse gas levels, the greater probability there will be for significant consequences from climate change around the world.”
He explained that such consequences include the growing likelihood of extreme weather events, intense downpours or flash drought onset, and a greater risk for record-breaking heat waves that threaten human health, ecosystems, and the stability of our infrastructure. And he added that he remained “very concerned that we are not seeing these records in carbon dioxide levels even starting to decline yet.”
Emissions plateau may help
Michael Mann, Presidential Distinguished Professor of Earth and Environmental Science at the University of Pennsylvania and creator of the famous ‘hockey stick’ graph, also cautioned that a long-term perspective is necessary to highlight that scientific rigour needs to be applied. His cautious approach is based on the principle that the truth is bad enough and that science communication should not paralyse climate action. He said:
“Basically, this is an El Niño effect. The same major El Niño event that contributed to the global heat spike this past year also was associated with a temporary release of CO2 into the atmosphere, and consequent spike in atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
“As La Niña conditions continue to build, we can expect a decrease in CO2 growth this year. What really matters is the longer-term trend, which suggests a decrease in the CO2 growth rate as carbon emissions plateau.”
But the professor added the caveat: “Of course, we have to bring carbon emissions down dramatically in order to stabilize CO2 levels and warming.”
Understanding and action on climate
The environmentalist Bill McKibben commented on social media that public information and awareness is key to action. Commenting on the latest warning report he said:
“I’d make this the lead story in every paper and newscast on the planet. If we don’t understand the depth of the climate crisis, we will not act in time.”
The data from Scripps Institution of Oceanography shows the inexorable rise of CO2 concentrations. But the lack of urgent action suggests that somehow a numerical threshold needs to be broken before countries around the world make serious moves to address the problem. Will it be 450ppm, potentially reached within the next 10 years? And if we wait longer still – will 500ppm be the final alarm bell? What would that world look like?
With temperature records continuing to tumble and wildfires spreading in British Columbia, the summer of 2024 is looking dangerous for many – in a world of only 1.2 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
Dr Ella Gilbert, a climate scientist and presenter, focused on the importance of the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions when she said:
“The latest CO2 concentrations show that we are still lagging behind with climate action. And meaningful action has never been more important. Climate change is already having profound and devastating impacts on people and the planet – for instance we’ve just seen a full year of record ocean surface temperatures, we’ve had 11 straight months of record-breaking heat in the atmosphere, and 2023 saw a crash in Antarctic sea ice that was completely extraordinary.
“The sooner we curb emissions of greenhouse gases, the safer our climate will be. Every tenth of a degree matters, and every tonne of CO2 avoided means a reduction in human suffering.”
The International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) warns that whatever happens in the near future, “adverse impacts from human-caused climate change will continue to intensify”. These impacts will be felt in water and food production, biodiversity and ecosystems, floods and extreme weather conditions, along with the effects on human wellbeing and society – all around the world, the UK not excepted.
We need our governments to take the situation seriously and act now to avoid an unthinkable future. At the moment, we still have that choice.
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