As A-level results day looms closer, students across the UK have been told to prepare for disappointment as grades are expected to take a hit with the return to pre-Covid grading.
Figures reveal there was an increase of 160,000 in the number of top grades issued via ‘teacher assessment’ over the last two years. In order to combat this covid-related grade inflation, the government has asked Ofqual to ensure that the results from the exam boards in England come around halfway between those of 2019 and 2021.
This move is likely to result in widespread disappointment amongst school leavers who may not get the results they had hoped for and been predicted, and whose university offers may now be withdrawn.
Grade deflation
News of the potentially disappointing grades came on Sunday, just four days ahead of results day. John Blake is director for fair access and participation at the Office for Students. He told The Telegraph, that these grades could come as a “shock” to students on results day, so it was “only fair” to warn them. He said that in general terms, the grades awarded are likely to be lower than those predicted for students – including for students who normally “wouldn’t dream” of having issues – though not everyone will be affected.
Professor Alan Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research at the University of Buckingham, said that there will be around 80,000 fewer top grades than there were in 2021, meaning thousands of students will miss out on places they would have gained last year.
Increase in competition
After dealing with the potential results day disappointment, these students will be hit with the next uncertainty of whether they will gain a place at their desired universities. Calling 2022 A-level results potentially “the most interesting for many years”, Smithers states in his report that this year will be “the most competitive ever for university admissions”:
“For many of this year’s school leavers the hard work did not end with A-levels, but begins again on results day in the chase for the coveted places.”
This is worrying for students, and comes with the statistic that 40% of British candidates who applied to top universities this summer were rejected, which is the highest rate ever recorded. With the deferrals and postponements from students of 2020/2021, this rollover is a key factor in the demand for university places being at an all-time high.
Smithers points out that the demand from international students is also increasing. The Sunday Times has revealed that elite universities are rejecting UK students in favour of overseas candidates who usually pay £24,000 in fees, which is triple what domestic students pay. This increase in competition has the potential to leave students clambering for places at university.
Not only is it proving more difficult for students to get into their dream universities first time round, but figures have also revealed a sharp drop in the number of Russell Group courses in clearing with only 2,358 courses available compared to 3,085 at the same time last year, presenting another hurdle in these next steps for students.
When will these students get a break?
It goes without saying that these students have been severely disrupted by Covid-19. This year’s cohort have in fact never sat national examinations, owing to the cancellation of their GCSEs during the 2020 pandemic. A-level students this year are the first to have sat these exams since 2019 and have been thrown into the deep end with their first national examination since primary school.
Deprived of exam experience, these students have also had to endure disrupted and disjointed teaching, with having to learn large amounts of content remotely and online.
This stressful learning experience combined with the uncertainty of whether their grades will be enough amidst the most competitive year for university admissions, reveals that these students have had a lot weighing on their shoulders. Knowing this, we can only try to understand the immense pressure they are facing.
As a student disrupted by Covid-19 myself, I know that the anxiety surrounding exam result uncertainty is almost unbearable. I sat my A-levels in 2020, when we had to deal with the chaos that was the initial algorithm controversially used to determine our grades, followed by the abrupt change to teacher assessed grades. I can confidently say it was an exhausting and frustrating experience.
Covid has without a doubt been a damaging catalyst for continuing examination uncertainty. The real question is – when will students stop being affected? For those getting their results tomorrow, you should be incredibly proud of yourselves whatever your results may be. Considering the tough conditions you have been working in over the past few years, your hard work and perseverance is admirable. Good luck and I hope you all get the outcome you deserve!
