A National Audit Office (NAO) report last Monday on the costs of imposing a post-Brexit trade border on ourselves was quickly overshadowed two days later when Rishi Sunak surprised his own MPs by triggering the start of the 2024 general election campaign.
The prime minister’s carefully prepared statement in Downing Street was unfortunately timed to coincide with a sudden shower, leaving him soaked to the skin and giving us an unmistakeable sign that God was somehow contriving to deliver His own verdict on the last 14 years of Conservative government. It may turn out to be a portent of an accident-prone campaign.
Sunak is 20 points behind in the polls. Bereft of new ideas, he has absolutely nothing of note to show for his period in office. Nearly a quarter of his own MPs, are quitting to avoid their own Portillo moments and 150 constituencies are struggling to find a candidate. The party can see the wilderness years stretching out ahead. A political Armageddon awaits the Tories on 4 July.
The list of Conservative MPs standing down includes Michael Gove, who probably feels he deserves a rest after spending virtually all of the last 14 years at cabinet minister level doing incalculable damage to this country.
Where did it all go wrong?
It’s hard to recall now that Sunak’s predecessor but one achieved a stunning victory and an 80-seat majority just five years ago with many commentators predicting a decade at least of Conservative government. How did it all go wrong?
The answer, in a word, is Brexit.
The Conservative Party’s sole ‘achievement’ of the last five years has itself achieved nothing of benefit to this country. In fact, quite the opposite. The UK has been diminished economically, socially, diplomatically, and even geographically, with both Northern Ireland and Gibraltar moving ever closer to the EU.
Brexit transformed the Conservative Party into a nationalist/populist movement indistinguishable from UKIP/The Brexit Party/Reform UK. It was the personal vehicle that carried the bumbling, amoral and inept Johnson to power and forced out the last of the reasonable, moderate centrists.
Its unforeseen consequences have preoccupied ministers and the entire machinery of government to the exclusion of almost everything else for eight long years. The urgent work needed to improve Britain’s productivity and raise living standards has languished untouched in the in-tray.
Although a growing majority now recognises Brexit as a historic mistake, neither of the two main parties, for their own reasons, as Danny (Lord) Finkelstein has pointed out in The Times, intends to tell the electorate the truth about it and will try to avoid the subject during the election campaign.
All of which brings me back to the NAO Report on ‘implementing an effective border’ which takes a comprehensive look at the costs and problems associated with rebuilding UK/EU border controls not seen for 30 years or more.
The wide-ranging report provides six of the 13 downsides added this week to our Davis Downside Dossier, largely because of the extra costs, waste, delays and uncertainties surrounding the government’s post-Brexit attempts to minimise the impact of its own policy.
Borders
The NAO report has revealed the cost of new infrastructure needed to implement the government’s new post-Brexit trade border will be at least £4.7bn for the 13 most significant projects, excluding their annual staffing and running costs.
The government estimates the annual cost to traders of the sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) controls and safety and security declaration (SSD) requirement will be £469mn.
The FT has ploughed through the details and says the NAO has found there was “no cross-government integrated delivery plan” for the strategy which has led to delays and public funds being wasted. Ministers spent £62mn on a customs post at Dover that was later not required, while £258mn was spent building eight temporary border facilities to cope with additional demand, but in the event were never needed.
The NAO also claims that the government’s ambitious plans to create a one-stop-shop for all UK border processes and systems, allowing users to meet their import, export and transit obligations by submitting information once, and in one place, is already months behind schedule.
The single trader window (STW) is said to be a “fundamental element” of the government’s plans to implement both the remaining import controls and the ‘most effective border strategy’. The spending watchdog believes the programme’s objectives and timescales are “overly optimistic and continue to under-estimate the complexity of what is required”. Nothing new there then?
Northern Ireland
A scheme to help traders simply move goods from GB to NI will have cost more than £500mn in its first four years, according to the BBC, quoting the NAO. HMRC expects to have spent £531mn on the trader support service (TSS) between December 2020 and December 2024 using an IT system operated by a consortium led by Fujitsu. The initial contract was for a two-year period, with the option of two one-year extensions. HMRC has since extended the contract twice and the current contract will expire in December 2024.
Transport
The Road Haulage Association (RHA) has greeted the NAO report on post-Brexit border control infrastructure with Ashton Cull, their public affairs manager, saying:
“We are deeply concerned to read this report detailing the level of delays in the introduction of the new border model, and particularly the Single Trader Window. The overspend on infrastructure and staffing is also of concern to us, particularly when we are receiving reports from members that significant delays are being caused by a lack of resource at Sevington.”
So, despite pitching the thick end of £5bn at new border controls there appears to be a “lack of resource” at the main Channel crossing point. How do they manage it?
Citizens
Passengers taking the Eurostar from St Pancras will be expected to arrive at the station at least two hours before departure when the new EU entry/Exit system comes into force in October. Currently travellers are advised to arrive 90 minutes in advance. A spokeswoman for Eurostar said: “We are working closely with the authorities in the UK and EU member states to prepare for the arrival of EES.”
And foreign secretary David Cameron says he’s concerned about the introduction of EES at Dover, telling MPs on the European Scrutiny Committee:
“We have made some progress … but it’s still worrying because we do have these quite big choke points at Dover and St Pancras and I’m really worried about there being long delays for people.”
Things are looking so bad that the chair of the Lords’ Justice and Home Affairs Committee, Lord Foster of Bath, has written to the minister for legal migration and the border, asking him to “encourage the EU to delay the introduction of the EES until a smartphone application for pre-registration is ready”.
Good luck with that one.
Culture
Of the 15 women’s WorldTour cycling teams, only four have opted to attend next month’s Tour of Britain Women, one of the stages in the event, which starts on 6 June. In statements issued to Cycling Weekly, WorldTour outfits Movistar and Roland named Brexit in their rationale for not taking part.
Ruben Contreras, manager of Roland, said Brexit makes racing in the UK “very, very complicated. Even if we have the vans, the ATA carnet, all the equipment, all the documents, it’s still very complicated” adding that “We got stuck at the customs border last year”.
And from the UK end, the same downside can be seen in the manager of Lincoln-based cycling team Pro-Noctis – 200º Coffee – Hargreaves Contracting, being forced to crowd-fund money to cover the extra costs of participating in European competitions following Brexit.
Speaking to Cycling Weekly, Rick Lister said the Brexit process has “significantly” increased costs.
“If we’ve got an early morning boat, it’s a real risk to go in the morning, because if it’s two hours, we could then miss the boat. Every trip we have to stay in the Travelodge at Ashford, which is an expense, so I can go the evening before [to do the paperwork], and it’s the same coming back.”
Construction
The CEO of US-based Oak View Group (OVG) which owns Co-Op Live, the UK’s largest indoor arena located in Manchester, has told the FT that the root cause of the delays, which saw shows cancelled and fans turned away at the last minute, was a shortage of construction workers caused by Brexit and the pandemic.
Tim Leiweke described the past few weeks as “hell” for OVG after the 23,500-capacity arena was ridiculed by angry ticket holders, and said the experience had made him reconsider plans for a second UK venue in London.
Food/Agriculture
The BBC reports that a lobby group representing small boat owners, the New Under Ten Fishermen’s Association (NUTFA), was disbanded last month, because it can no longer see a future for the industry because of the foreign fleet’s ability to catch huge quantities of fish.
Martin Gilbert, who fishes mainly for shellfish out of Newquay harbour and voted for Brexit said the current deal had “sold us down the river”, adding: “The French, the Belgians and the Spanish have still got the majority of the quota.”
The LibDem MP for Westmorland and Lonsdale has said changes to subsidy payments following Brexit was making it difficult for farmers in Cumbria to run viable businesses. Tim Farron raised concerns that the new systems to replace the EU funding were leaving tenant farmers exposed. Roughly half of farmers in Cumbria were tenant farmers, he said, 65 of whom received letters giving them notice to quit last month.
Gibraltar
Fabian Picardo KC MP, the first minister of Gibraltar, has issued a stern rebuke to the members of the European Scrutiny Committee, over comments relating to Gibraltar and reports that the British Overseas Territory is about to join the Schengen area.
Picardo said members of the ESC want “to turn a Nelsonian blind eye to the huge problems that their Brexit has created for Gibraltar and our current economic model. More worrying, there seemed to be a failure to understand some of the issues that arise and how to legally and logically resolve them”.
If an agreement between Spain, the EU and UK is announced in the next six weeks, the status of the British overseas territory, a global base for Britain’s gambling industry, is likely to figure in the election campaign and may put Brexit centre stage.
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