Many of us oldies had given up on the idea of Britain ever again having serious, capable prime ministers. Keir Starmer has at least given us hope. His handling of the violent events that erupted in many of the country’s towns and cities last week following the horrific deaths of three children in Southport has been exemplary and widely praised.
Unlike his recent predecessors, he didn’t just act prime ministerial but actually delivered genuine leadership decisively when it mattered. He faced down the far-right and won.
He was fortunate that his first real crisis came in a field he understood well – the criminal justice system – and that his political opponents struggled to find the words to condemn their own rampaging supporters. Nigel Farage’s net favourability rating along with his ambitions to lead the Tories took a heavy blow. He is seen positively now only among Reform UK Ltd’s 2024 voters, demonstrating just how narrow his base really is. He is down to -4 with leave voters and -27 among 2024 Conservative voters.
Relentless impact of Brexit
Here in the bunker, we continue to log downsides with another 10 being added this week.
We noted that Boris Johnson’s former economic adviser and ardent Brexiter Gerard Lyons has written an article for CapX (Unpicking Brexit won’t solve the UK’s growth problem), based on his own short paper published by the Centre for Policy Studies.
Lyons is one of the tiny group of economists who thought leaving the EU would benefit the UK but now finds it necessary to defend Brexit in light of the facts, which increasingly show he is on the wrong side of the argument. At least he now admits that the notion that Brexit has made the challenges facing Britain worse “can be debated”. And he reminds us that he warned “innumerable times before the referendum” that Brexit “would be an economic shock”.
He is critical of some of Brexit’s cheerleaders who presented it as “a panacea and gave the impression that it would transform the country’s fortunes overnight”.
His memory is as bad as his judgement. In a piece for The Standard in April 2016 he listed “some” of the “many arguments in favour of Brexit”. But he listed none of the arguments against Brexit – no shocks, caveats or warnings of any sort. And he was the cheerleader that suggested “with Brexit, people would suddenly face cheaper prices for food, as we would be paying world prices”.
Suddenly? What like overnight? No wonder he feels the need to rewrite history.
Now, along with his Brexit-supporting economic friends he can only suggest that “we need to focus on the domestic policy levers that can be pulled in Britain to boost our competitiveness”.
Unfortunately, after eight years he still can’t tell us what they are.
Two days after his latest article appeared, CapX published one by Stephen Webb: How to cut EU red tape on food. The irony eh?
Lyons is the chief economic strategist at Netwealth Investments, so if you have anything invested with them, maybe now’s a good time to review your options.
Brexit downsides
This week’s Brexit downsides bring the total to 1,926.
Immigration
Home Office data shows that visa applications have fallen dramatically, with those from international students down by a third so far this year. This is reported by Tthe Times Higher Education (formerly the Times Higher Education Supplement).
Mark Corbett, head of policy and networks at London Higher, a body representing universities and colleges in London, said the reduction could represent a billion pound loss for the sector next year. It will “no doubt set alarm bells off” and could have serious consequences for the diversity and financial health of UK universities, he added.
On the same figures, The Times reports a think tank, The Migration Observatory at Oxford University, has warned that the fall in visa numbers also means the UK’s health and social care sector faces potential recruitment problems. Ben Brindle, a researcher with the Observatory, said: “If the decline in health and care visas is because people are put off applying because of new rules, rather than a fall in demand, then it could signal further workforce problems for the health and care sector.”
Health
An 81-year-old grandmother from Buckinghamshire has warned that Brexit has cut off her crucial supply of creon enzyme capsules that she needs to digest food as her pancreas is unable to produce the proteins naturally. Patricia Cope claims:
“We can’t apply for a licence to make these drugs in this country because now we have left, they won’t issue this country with a licence. I don’t ever remember hearing anything like this while we were in the EU, I am sure it is down to Brexit. Now we have left, we are last in the pecking order for everything.”
Trade
The trade confidence outlook for Q2 2024, conducted by the British Chambers of Commerce’s (BCC) Insights Unit, a survey of just under 2,000 UK SME exporters, is said to show a “bleak picture”. Most SME exporters (52%) are reporting overseas sales flatlining and 21% are reporting a decrease. William Bain, head of trade policy at the BCC, said: “Our research shows the government will have its work cut out in trying to revitalise UK exports, as they continue to underperform.”
As many farmers warned at the time, imports of red meat from Australia under the 2023 free trade agreement have already increased by 500%, according to Food Manufacture magazine. Stephen Edwards, business manager for the trade body Meat & Livestock Australia, said: “Where we’ve seen a steady increase in trade between the UK and Australia within the red meat sector, we’re very much where we want to be one year in to the free trade agreement.”
The Independent reports that the National Institute of Economic and Social Research has claimed “Brexit uncertainty”, along with the effects of lockdown and the Covid pandemic, has caused growth and productivity in the UK to lag behind.
It added Brexit had contributed to a loss of confidence in Britain as a destination for investment, and renegotiating Johnson’s Brexit deal could have a “serious positive impact” on turning around Britain’s failing economy.
Culture/sport
Dundee United manager Jim Goodwin has lamented the post-Brexit red tape that delayed the arrival of Nigerian winger Meshack Ubochioma from the Hungarian side Zalaegerszeg in July by several weeks.
Goodwin told his local newspaper: “The visa process – after the carnage of Brexit – means it is hard to get these players from European sides into the country. This one has dragged on. We did all we could with our lawyers, but we are dealing with people in foreign countries. It is not as big a priority for them as it is for us!”
Borders
Border issues continue to plague UK importers. The Grocer magazine reports that among many border problems raised by the SPS (sanitary and phytosanitary) certification working group in a letter to new Defra secretary Steve Reed, the main one remains the common user charge (CUC), a fixed fee for checks on goods entering Britain via the port of Dover and the Eurotunnel.
The CUC disproportionately impacts small businesses. It would be more acceptable, it’s suggested, if the checks were actually taking place. According to several traders, border officials are waving truckloads in without checking, to avoid more queues and delays.
And a lack of lab testing capacity in the UK means some imported food arriving at British border control posts, amazingly, is being sent back to Europe to be tested. You couldn’t make this up. The SPS certification working group, which represents 30 trade bodies involved in the UK’s food supply, has written to the government warning that members are being advised that some samples of imported foods are being sent to countries such as Germany to be tested before they can be released at the border.
Transport
Our final downside this week concerns British airline operators having to fly planes to the USA for slower and more expensive maintenance and repairs instead of Europe because of post-Brexit rules.
After a two-year grace period which ended in 2023, UK-registered aircraft cannot be legally repaired at EU-licensed facilities because there is no agreement between the UK and the EU. So, British companies have been flying aircraft thousands of miles across the Atlantic to the US, which does have a mutual recognition agreement for aviation engineering with the UK.
Cargo airline One Air said a straightforward maintenance check in Germany used to take a week and cost about £164,000. In the US, it now takes two weeks and costs £203,000.
So much for Brexit benefits. Like much else, things are just the same except they cost more and take longer. No wonder we’re lagging behind in productivity.
More in Politics:
- The failure of referendums, by John Hall
- How much did Reeves know about the UK’s finances before the election?, by Dr Stella Perrott
- Political violence is endemic, just not in the way you think, by Leon Wheeler
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