Over the course of 2022, opinion polls have recorded a steady increase in anti-Brexit sentiment. But the polls require interpretation. An online webinar organised by Grassroots for Europe, in mid-February 2023, brought together three experts to discuss how to interpret the polling data, and the implications for pro-EU campaigning.
Parallels with prohibition
Richard Bentall is a professor of clinical psychology, who has contributed actively to the Brexit debate through social media and original research. His presentation began in an unusual place, by examining the parallels between Brexit and prohibition in the USA, which in 1921 was made permanent by an amendment to the US constitution.
Both Brexit and prohibition involved decades of campaigning by an unlikely alliance of unrelated parties (in the case of Brexit: libertarians, Lexiters, nationalists, racists, and ordinary people taken in by leave propaganda). They both became potent at a particular historical juncture where they could exploit public discontent (the aftermath of, respectively, the First World War and the crash of 2008); and both led to the formation of strong identities (dries and wets; Leavers and Remainers; with both dries and leavers adopting hard and soft positions). Prohibition happened before the advent of opinion polling, but post-Brexit polling confirmed that the remain and leave identities formed largely only after the 2016 referendum.
Identities are quick to form and slow to change. In general, the stronger the identity the harder it is to change, but soft identities weaken and dissipate over time. Prohibition, which was expected to be permanent, was reversed after only 13 years of contact with reality, after losing the support and interest of the ‘soft dries’. Is Brexit on the same trajectory? It could be.
Five stage model
Bentall presented a five-stage model of the prohibition story: denial, recognition that there is a problem, attempts to mitigate the problem, double book-keeping (holding in mind opposite outcomes simultaneously), and reversal. Just four years after parliament legislated to give effect to the referendum decision, we are already moving from stage 2 to stage 3.
Polling evidence from 2017 onwards has indicated that a hard Brexit has never enjoyed public support, and recent polls show that Brexit is becoming increasingly unpopular, that mitigations of Brexit damage would be welcomed, and that most people, including those identifying as Leavers, would accept freedom of movement and single market membership. Bentall closed with the thought that one of the biggest impediments to reversing Brexit may be the idea that it can’t be reversed.
Rejoining the EU will not be easy
Peter Kellner is past president of the polling organization YouGov and is a familiar figure to UK audiences from his regular TV appearances as a commentator at election times. He spoke only briefly because he largely endorsed Bentall’s message. But he cautioned that rejoining the EU was likely to be a long and difficult process involving messy negotiations with many opportunities for them to be derailed.
In contrast to most polling companies, Opinium offers four response options. In their most recent poll, while 59% of respondents are seeking a closer relationship with the EU, only 34% favour rejoin, with the other 25% preferring a closer relationship outside the EU.
Leave voters have a variety of views about the current situation. By two to one, their take on the failure of Brexit to deliver the promised benefits is that Brexit has been badly implemented. However, the primary concern of Leavers is that Brexit is not delivering economic benefits (a point also made by Bentall), rather than concerns about, for example, immigration (although a clear majority believe that, as a result of Brexit, Britain is ‘freer’).
Economic arguments have the greatest impact and could sway those Leavers (around a quarter to a third of the total) who are not passionate Brexiters. And leavers could be open to persuasion regarding freedom of movement, considering the adverse economic consequences resulting from its abolition.
A democratic decision to rejoin
Kellner also questioned how well people who are polled about the single market or customs union understand what they are. He cautioned that while polls are useful as a thermometer to take the temperature of the country, they should not be taken too seriously, particularly when they offer only binary options. A figure of 60% support for rejoining the EU would not mean that all 60% are equally enthusiastic or are seeking to rejoin immediately.
Concerning the rejoin campaign, Kellner stressed that, in order to address Leavers’ concerns about sovereignty, the campaign should call not for “rejoin”, but for “a democratic decision to rejoin”. He also questioned whether the parallel with prohibition would work for the messy process of rejoining the EU, versus the simple repeal of the 18th amendment to the US constitution, although Bentall countered that the latter was far from easy, as it needed to be endorsed by a majority vote in two thirds of the states.
What do the polls say?
Flo Hutchings, political director of Best for Britain, began by outlining the polling that Best for Britain has been conducting using the MRP (multiple regression and post-stratification) method. These polls use large samples to construct a statistical model that is able to predict voting patterns at the level of individual constituencies, using extensive information about the factors that are associated with different outcomes. (For example, a constituency with a high proportion of pensioners is more likely to vote Conservative, while a constituency with a high student population is more likely to vote Labour.) It is a complex technique, but almost perfectly predicted the outcome, constituency by constituency, of the 2019 general election.
Hutchings took as axiomatic (alongside most pro-EU campaigners) that the first, and essential step on the road back to a closer relationship or rejoining the EU is a change of government. But according to a recent Best for Britain poll, the 21% Labour lead in the polls may be quite soft because of the high proportion of don’t knows, who when pressed break 2:1 in favour of the Conservatives.
This leads Best for Britain to believe that, despite the massive Labour lead in the polls, tactical voting will be needed in the coming general election, and Best for Britain is committed to providing advice on tactical voting when an election is called, based on their MRP polling and local intelligence. The need for tactical voting advice is highlighted by the fact that around 60% of people are unable to name the second-placed party in their constituency.
What this means for Labour
Regarding Brexit, the Labour leadership are wary of opening up the debate on single market and customs union access. This is despite the fact that a majority of those responding (38% to 22% overall, and 44% to 13 % among Labour voters) believe that Keir Starmer is wrong to rule out rejoining the customs union. The reason for caution is that, while some 55% of the population, including a third of Conservative voters, now think that Brexit has increased the problems facing the country (and only 10% think they have decreased), only 19% of people see Brexit as their most important issue.
Hutchings expanded on this point in the Q&A: while ruling out (for now?) rejoining the single market, customs union, and EU, the shadow cabinet are pragmatically exploring the potential bolt-ons to the EU withdrawal agreement (such as a veterinary agreement to solve many of the problems of Northern Ireland, mutual recognition of professional qualifications, or access to the Horizon programme), and may be leaning to a Norway-type solution.
The most recent MRP polling identified that there is majority support in all but three constituencies across the UK for the proposition that Brexit is going badly (and the polling is 50:50 in two of the three stand-outs). Even in the red wall, there is support for reinstating freedom of movement, provided that it is explained that freedom of movement confers reciprocal benefits.
Hutchings also pointed out that Labour is a complex coalition, and it is right that Anas Sarwar and Sadiq Khan are bolder about calling out the failings of Brexit and pushing the Labour leadership to adopt a more pro-EU stance. She ended with the thought that the Brexit era may be coming to an end, but a change of government is essential to bring that about.
Implications and lessons for campaigners
True to its aim, the webinar identified some important implications for pro-EU campaigners, arising from the presentations summarised above and some other issues that came up in the Q&A.
- Campaigners should continue to generate targeted messaging about the harms of Brexit: the message is getting through.
- The hard Brexit minority are unlikely to change their view, and time and efforts should not be wasted trying to persuade them.
- The strongest argument against Brexit is its implementation. While we could just stand back and watch Brexit self-destruct, it would be better to be disseminating counter-narratives that present the positive reasons for rejoining the EU.
- A narrative that the campaign seeks “a democratic decision to rejoin” would neutralise the Brexiter argument that reversing Brexit would be “anti-democratic”.
- For most people the most important consequence of Brexit is the economic harm it has caused, so a major focus of campaigning should be to provide a narrative of the economic benefits of a closer relationship between the UK and the EU.
- A major issue for Leavers was, and is, the payments from the UK into the EU budget. This issue needs to be neutralised by highlighting the much greater economic benefits of EU membership.
- While there is not yet an overwhelming majority to rejoin the EU, there has been substantial majority support since 2017 for rejoining the single market, and freedom of movement is not an impediment.
- It is not well understood that freedom of movement was a freedom to work, not an invitation to welfare tourism. Campaigners should explain that reinstating freedom of movement would be win-win: UK citizens could enjoy the benefits of unfettered access to EU countries, and EU workers could come here to support the UK economy.
- The Labour Party needs to think very carefully about how to calibrate its Brexit policy (which may shift in a pro-EU direction as Labour attempts to profit from the political turmoil in pro-EU Scotland), particularly considering the very high level of support for a much closer relationship with the EU among Labour voters and party members, and the possibility of losing support to the LibDems if they were to articulate a more strongly pro-EU position.
- Removing the hard-Brexit-supporting Conservative government may not be as easy as the polls suggest, so a strong tactical voting campaign will be needed come the general election.
